ATL: JULIA - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#61 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 16, 2016 1:52 pm

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18z Guidance... Again the TVCN Consensus has Julia or what's left moving over Florida Peninsula in @ 5 days... Lot's of meandering...

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18z Intensity... Trending upward...
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#62 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:45 pm

The intensity models have me on guard right now, one has to remember Joaquin last year as Julia could find a better environment below 30N and possibly become more than most models are showing

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#63 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:55 pm

I think that the 18zGFS on Julia is trash, shows it not heading SSW when the current motion is SSW

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#64 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:01 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The intensity models have me on guard right now, one has to remember Joaquin last year as Julia could find a better environment below 30N and possibly become more than most models are showing

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Indeed. If Julia keeps moving south, there's a large area of low shear conditions below it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#65 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:50 pm

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00z Guidance Models... Major SW shift in modeling...

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00z Intensity... Major uptick in strength... Not sure how a naked swirl becomes a hurricane...
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#66 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:32 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
00z Guidance Models... Major SW shift in modeling...

Image
00z Intensity... Major uptick in strength... Not sure how a naked swirl becomes a hurricane...


If shear lowers
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