ATL: JULIA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#41 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:20 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Hmm, the 12Z Euro is initializing this as a tiny sfc low NNW of PR along with stronger 850 vorticity. That's early & tells me this run is likely going to like 93L.

Edit: No, it loses the tiny sfc low at hour 48 & looks similar to two runs ago. These last 3 runs are bringing vort to C FL Tue AM but only one (0Z today) brings it there as a TC.

i got feeling this will be only tropical wave by tue i think models got issue with 93l look how their did with hermine when was invest


I'd check back tomorrow to make sure all is ok.

12Z UK: no liking for TC but it does have vorticity/precip C FL Tue like other models. So, cMC again all on its own for TC development.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#42 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:26 pm

LarryWx wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Hmm, the 12Z Euro is initializing this as a tiny sfc low NNW of PR along with stronger 850 vorticity. That's early & tells me this run is likely going to like 93L.

Edit: No, it loses the tiny sfc low at hour 48 & looks similar to two runs ago. These last 3 runs are bringing vort to C FL Tue AM but only one (0Z today) brings it there as a TC.

i got feeling this will be only tropical wave by tue i think models got issue with 93l look how their did with hermine when was invest


I'd check back tomorrow to make sure all is ok.

12Z UK: no liking for TC but it does have vorticity/precip C FL Tue like other models. So, cMC again all on its own for TC development.

nhc saying same past two days
0 likes   

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1140
Age: 29
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Deltona, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#43 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:46 pm

The 00z ECMWF from last night (and the previous two runs before) showed a close surface circulation by this time. Based on current satellite trends, that clearly is not the case. Overall, I think the GFS performed better with 93L to date.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#44 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:16 pm

USTropics wrote:The 00z ECMWF from last night (and the previous two runs before) showed a close surface circulation by this time. Based on current satellite trends, that clearly is not the case. Overall, I think the GFS performed better with 93L to date.


I agree. The King is not always king. Add tonight's 0Z GFS to all of the other GFS runs not liking this. The GFs has been king. Even the CMC is backing off quite a bit with only a 1010 surface low hitting SE FL Tue AM on tonight's 0Z run.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#45 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:27 am

The 0Z Euro/UKMET along with the 6Z GFS don't develop this into a closed surface low. However, they, especially the 0Z Euro, still move its 850 MB vorticity into FL Tuesday, which hopefully would bring good rains to dry areas.
So, now only the CMC of the major global models has a closed surface low (1010 mb, much weaker than recent runs) form from this.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#46 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:58 pm

The 12Z CMC once again hits FL, this time with a tropical surface low of near 1010 MB very early TUE.

The 12Z GFS still has nothing.

The 12Z Euro initialized this as not having a surface center.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#47 Postby rockyman » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:52 pm

18z GFS coming in slightly stronger than 12z...same path across central FL and into the NE GOMEX. No closed low, but stronger 850 vorticity.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#48 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 11, 2016 11:26 pm

The 0Z Mon CMC has no closed surface low as the wave hits FL. Of course, the 0Z GFS has nothing once more. Hip hip hooray for the consistently non-developing GFS for 93L! OTOH, the Crazy Uncle (CMC) maintains its nickname for good reason. :lol:
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
StarmanHDB
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 201
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:59 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#49 Postby StarmanHDB » Mon Sep 12, 2016 3:29 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 0Z Mon CMC has no closed surface low as the wave hits FL. Of course, the 0Z GFS has nothing once more. Hip hip hooray for the consistently non-developing GFS for 93L! OTOH, the Crazy Uncle (CMC) maintains its nickname for good reason. :lol:


Ah, yes! Our old Crazy Canadian Uncle. No one can explain why he is the way he is. Some say the ridiculously high amount of sugar in his blood stream from all of those maple syrup candies are to blame. Others say it's all of the cholesterol from all of that back bacon. Perhaps it's those pops to his head from all of those stray hockey pucks. Maybe the countless Molson / Canadian Club alcohol-drenched days and nights have finally done his noodle in. Or was it the time Geddy Lee smacked him upside the head with his Rickenbacher bass for criticizing his voice? Alas, we may never know, but....

Go Canada, EH!
:D
2 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15093
Age: 35
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Chicago.... definately need to be back in the action..
Contact:

ATL; INVEST 93L - 2 PM EDT TWO=Up to 40%-40% - Advisories could be initiated this afternoon

#50 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 13, 2016 12:44 pm

funny I wonder what the models are going to do with it.. initialization is obviously wrong lol

Image
0 likes   
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#51 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:56 pm

Interestingly, the 12Z Euro initialized this well at the surface with a 1013 mb low near Cape Canaveral. They have it going inland quickly and NW to just west of Valdosta, GA, at hour 24. However, the 0Z version had the low going SW of here to the FL Big Bend. So, it is obviously catching up to reality on the position and its solution should be taken with a grain of salt.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5635
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#52 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:31 pm

Wow, none of the models picked up on this developing and hugging the east coast of FL. :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5617
Age: 37
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#53 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:40 pm

The 0zGFS has this emerging off of Savannah at 36hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3402
Age: 34
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#54 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:06 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS has this emerging off of Savannah at 36hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.


Latest Euro doing the same--taking it basically up the coast along Georgia/South Carolina through 48H.

http://i.imgur.com/XsqsfKg.png
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13387
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#55 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 14, 2016 7:15 am

0Z Euro

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#56 Postby rockyman » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:51 am

GFS 12z 18 hours: Stuck in the middle with you.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TYNI
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 549
Age: 51
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2008 12:59 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#57 Postby TYNI » Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:38 am

StarmanHDB wrote:
LarryWx wrote:The 0Z Mon CMC has no closed surface low as the wave hits FL. Of course, the 0Z GFS has nothing once more. Hip hip hooray for the consistently non-developing GFS for 93L! OTOH, the Crazy Uncle (CMC) maintains its nickname for good reason. :lol:


Ah, yes! Our old Crazy Canadian Uncle. No one can explain why he is the way he is. Some say the ridiculously high amount of sugar in his blood stream from all of those maple syrup candies are to blame. Others say it's all of the cholesterol from all of that back bacon. Perhaps it's those pops to his head from all of those stray hockey pucks. Maybe the countless Molson / Canadian Club alcohol-drenched days and nights have finally done his noodle in. Or was it the time Geddy Lee smacked him upside the head with his Rickenbacher bass for criticizing his voice? Alas, we may never know, but....

Go Canada, EH!
:D



LOL - as a Canadian, EH, I find this very funny, and very accurate! Now if the Crazy Uncle can only be reliable as he is in regularly showing up for holidays with a 2-4 of Canadian, a mickey of CC, and his cassettes of the glory days of Rush!!!
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 398
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#58 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:16 pm

Keeping this thread alive
Image

perhaps back through Florida?
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6494
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#59 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:39 am

12Z UKMET has this intensifying into a hurricane and approaching North Florida
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6861
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Location: Martin County, Florida

Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#60 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 16, 2016 12:57 pm

Image
12z... Interesting the TVCN Consensus moves through Florida Peninsula... NHC typically stays close to the TVCN... 06z TVCN was OTS..
0 likes   
Resident of the Atlantic Basin's Hurricane Hit Capital!


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest