ATL: JULIA - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#61 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 16, 2016 1:52 pm

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18z Guidance... Again the TVCN Consensus has Julia or what's left moving over Florida Peninsula in @ 5 days... Lot's of meandering...

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18z Intensity... Trending upward...
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#62 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:45 pm

The intensity models have me on guard right now, one has to remember Joaquin last year as Julia could find a better environment below 30N and possibly become more than most models are showing

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#63 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:55 pm

I think that the 18zGFS on Julia is trash, shows it not heading SSW when the current motion is SSW

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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#64 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:01 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The intensity models have me on guard right now, one has to remember Joaquin last year as Julia could find a better environment below 30N and possibly become more than most models are showing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Indeed. If Julia keeps moving south, there's a large area of low shear conditions below it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#65 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:50 pm

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00z Guidance Models... Major SW shift in modeling...

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00z Intensity... Major uptick in strength... Not sure how a naked swirl becomes a hurricane...
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Re: ATL: JULIA - Models

#66 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:32 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
00z Guidance Models... Major SW shift in modeling...

Image
00z Intensity... Major uptick in strength... Not sure how a naked swirl becomes a hurricane...


If shear lowers
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