WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:23 am

A new invest has been designated to the east in the basin, out near the Marshall Islands. Guidance isn't particularly excited about the invest at the time, but it does appear that it is beginning to be picked up in the solutions. I think chances are decent that it could develop into at least a tropical storm as it moves to the west towards the Marianas.

Image

90W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 08, 2016:

Location: 11.2°N 163.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:31 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:43 am

Interestingly, GFS is much more crazy with this and stalls a strengthening typhoon near Okinawa...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:40 am

ASCAT shows a weak circulation with 90W.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:48 pm

Image

90W INVEST 160908 1800 11.5N 162.6E WPAC 15 1008

Impressive blob of convection...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:27 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.5N 162.6E, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAWAJALEIN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED AND
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN FLARING,
SHALLOW, AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 081047Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OVER THEN NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:54 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 162.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 161.7E, APPROXIMATELY
85 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJELANG, MARSHALL ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER. A 082233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THEN NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE DEFINED LLCC WITH AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:27 am

NAVGEM takes a weak wave through the middle portion of the Marianas. CMC takes a possible typhoon to Guam then devours Okinawa.

EURO suddenly dissipates this with little to no strengthening west of Guam and gets swallowed by another storm.

GFS bottoms this to 929mb and landfalls in Japan yet again...Honshu.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:15 pm

The 12Z ECMWF-HiRes from the 9th takes
it just south of Guam Monday and Monday night. It then brings yet
another disturbance near on Thursday night. The GFS washes out the
Monday disturbance bringing it through as a weak trough, however
it agrees on the somewhat more robust disturbance later. The only
difference is it brings it through Thursday rather than Thursday
night. That`s why we are increasing the clouds Thursday, we may
have to up the showers if this kind of agreement keeps up.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:26 pm

I am somewhat surprised to see JTWC go with medium today since there's still so much organization that needs to happen for this to have a hope of classification. If you squint really hard at the latest microwave pass, you can maybe make out some very shallow banding on the east side...maybe.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:31 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.8N 152.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 153.1E, APPROXIMATELY
515NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MIXED, SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IMPROVES BEHIND A TUTT CELL AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OF THE
MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE DEFINED LLCC WITH AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:45 am

EURO still doesn't do much with this...

GFS fails again... :lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:36 am

At least in the GFS's case, the solutions have kept 90W following Meranti too close and having it nailed by an outflow channel. It may take a Meranti landfall for 90W to get going.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 10, 2016 9:11 am

Visually though, 90W does appear better organized now than 12-24 hours ago. JTWC's medium is much more realistic now in my opinion.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:00 pm

More rain...

An approaching tropical disturbance will bring scattered showers
to the Marianas early this week. The circulation, centered to the
east-southeast of Guam near 12N150E, will slowly move westward
over the next couple of days. As it approaches the Marianas,
expect scattered showers to begin to move into the area Monday
morning, mainly over Guam and Rota. These showers will spread
northward through the day Monday. As the system continues to move
west, away from the islands, shower coverage will decrease to
isolated. unsettled conditions will remain over the area,
resulting in thunderstorms through the end of the week.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:45 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 153.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY
305 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WEAK, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
102044Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#16 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:01 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now up for 90W.

WTPN21 PGTW 111400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 146.6E TO 14.0N 140.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 146.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
147.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INTENSIFIED CONVECTION. A 111125Z METOP-
A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LLCC. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED WITH EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY IN THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS FROM ANDERSEN AFB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR OUTFLOW BUT WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INDUCED BY THE OUTFLOW OF TY 16W. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER 90W PASSES THE
MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121400Z.
//
NNNN


And here is the microwave pass mentioned in the discussion:

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:11 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:13 pm

000
WWMY80 PGUM 111412
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1211 AM MONDAY SEP 12 2016

GUZ001>004-120200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1211 AM MONDAY SEP 12 2016

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT...AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. AT 1200
AM...THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.1 DEGREES EAST...AND
WAS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

THIS DISTURBANCE HAS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WEST OF THE MARIANAS TODAY OR TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLANDS TODAY AS
IT PASSES SOUTH OF GUAM...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS.

WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO THE MARIANAS...KEEP POSTED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS
AND FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE
AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

KLEESCHULTE/MIDDLEBROOK
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:04 pm

Image

Wow very aggressive...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#20 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:20 pm

Guidance has been progressively getting stronger with 18W as it passes east of Taiwan. JTWC actually looks like they want to stay ahead of that trend. I haven't gotten a chance to see how favorable environmental conditions will look around that time, but it probably won't be too drastically different than what it looks/will look with Meranti, especially since 18W won't have to deal with Meranti's outflow like it is currently.
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