WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Malakas

#41 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:28 pm

euro6208 wrote:The title says Tropical Storm Meranti...so Cat 5 Meranti has a same twin but weaker? :lol:

Image

Whoops, my error there, fixed it. :P
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:41 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED JUST SOUTH OF A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 121707Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). TS
MALAKAS IS TRACKING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF
THE OUTFLOW FROM STY 16W PRODUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED VWS AND
RESTRICTING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST PRODUCING ENHANCED EASTERLY
OUTFLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR THE INCREASED
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29
CELSIUS. TS 18W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IS FORECAST TO FILL AND FLATTEN OUT; THEREFORE, NOT HAVING
THE DYNAMIC REQUIREMENTS TO BREAK DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD AS SOON AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. AS A RESULT THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE MODELS. THE NAVGEM AND GFS SUITES CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SHARPER RECURVE CLOSER TO OKINAWA AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF MAINLAND JAPAN. TS MALAKAS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, BUT AT A SLOW RATE, DUE TO THE CONTINUED NEGATIVE EFFECTS
FROM THE OUTFLOW OF STY 16W. BY TAU 36, STY 16W WILL MOVE WEST OF
TAIWAN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION AS THE VWS
DECREASES AND THE OUTFLOW GREATLY IMPROVES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THE VWS
CREATING ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KYUSHU. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:12 pm

Weaker in the 18z run...979mb landfall for Okinawa...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:26 pm

Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:41 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 14:33:28 N Lon : 137:43:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.3

Center Temp : -76.7C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 45km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.5 degrees

****************************************************
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:58 pm

Image

Possible eye?

Despite shear of 20 knots and even higher everywhere, convection with Malakas remained strong and consistent.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
kala
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:35 am
Location: Arizona

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby kala » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:10 pm

euro6208 wrote:Image

Possible eye?


Wouldn't be surprised. It has organized quite a bit today. It could be in the formative stages and somewhere around 45-50 kts 10-min.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
kala
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 100
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:35 am
Location: Arizona

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby kala » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:20 pm

Image

No eye though, actually.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:54 pm

kala wrote:Image

No eye though, actually.


If anything, this image indicates Malakas is not yet vertically stacked..but maybe on its way of doing so as Meranti moves farther westwards..
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:08 pm

The tilt isn't perfect, but it is getting better.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:10 pm

The latest visible imagery shows continued improvement. Malakas actually appears very similar to Meranti when it was in the same location.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:12 am

I kinda dig the name Malakas.

It's a tagalog word for strong/powerful from the Philippines.

It sure was tough surviving the moderate to strong wind shear but is now decreasing to 15 knots or less...

Oh oh...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:22 am

As per the latest ECMWF run, I think Taiwan must pay more attention to Malakas.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:29 am

WDPN33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS DEVELOPMENT IS HINDERED BY SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM STY
16W (MERANTI). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 130538Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
ACCORDANT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE
OUTFLOW FROM STY 16W EXACERBATED BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT CELL
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST PRODUCING ENHANCED EASTERLY OUTFLOW WHICH IS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT VENTILATION FOR THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TS 18W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. TS MALAKAS WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS, BUT AT A SLOW RATE, DUE TO THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS MENTIONED
IN PARA 2. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24, AS DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONES
INCREASE, THE VWS WILL DECREASE AND THE OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE,
ALLOWING A RAPID RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. STRONG VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Severe Tropical Storm

#55 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:42 am

The shear from Meranti's outflow appears to be on the decline for Malakas. The deformation zone between the two outflows is beginning to push away from Malakas some.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Severe Tropical Storm

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:07 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Severe Tropical Storm

#57 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:32 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 842 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS DEVELOPMENT IS HINDERED BY
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM STY 16W (MERANTI). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
LOW REFLECTIVITY SEMI-CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 130911Z 37GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON 130909Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWING 50-KNOT WIND
BARBS AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF THE
OUTFLOW FROM STY 16W EXACERBATED BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT CELL THE
NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING EASTWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TS 18W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 72. TS MALAKAS WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT AT A
SLOW RATE, DUE TO THE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS MENTIONED IN PARA 2. HOWEVER,
BY TAU 24, AS DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONES INCREASE, THE VWS WILL
DECREASE AND THE OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE, ALLOWING A RAPID RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU BY TAU 108. STRONG
VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD, DOWN TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Severe Tropical Storm

#58 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:59 pm

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT ALTHOUGH THE STORM STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO THE
OUTFLOW OF STY 16W, THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131847Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
MICROWAVE EYE FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE SSMIS
IMAGE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE FIX CLUSTER FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65
KNOTS) AND RECENT SATCON INTENSITY TRENDS. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FROM THE OUTFLOW FROM
STY 16W INCLUDING MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER,
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH INDICATING THAT THE IMPACTS OF STY 16W MAY BE REDUCING. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TS 18W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF STY 16W REDUCING, TS
MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK
UP TO TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD REGARDING THE
TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE RECURVE. HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS TREND OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE WEST,
CLOSER TO TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU JUST AFTER TAU 96.
STRONG VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IMPROVES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST DUE TO THE SETUP OF THE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH
ONLY DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, DUE
TO THE LARGE SPREAD DURING THE RECURVE PHASE AND THE CHANGES IN THE
MODEL TREND, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#59 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:35 pm

JMA is up to a typhoon

Image

TY 1616 (Malakas)
Issued at 22:05 UTC, 13 September 2016

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 13 September>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°05' (15.1°)
E134°10' (134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 14 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E131°25' (131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 14 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°25' (17.4°)
E129°05' (129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 15 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N21°00' (21.0°)
E125°20' (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 350 km (190 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 16 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N26°20' (26.3°)
E123°25' (123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#60 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:38 pm

I feel like it's hard for me to accurately assess Malakas's intensity after staring at Meranti for so long. :P

Outflow is still a problem in the NW quad.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests