WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#101 Postby StormChaser75 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:13 am

Malakas now a 110kt and 949MB storm Asper latest advisory
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#102 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:40 am

1500Z
Either 1430Z or 1500Z IRBD support Malakas a T6.0 typhoon on the Dvorak scale. 0916Z AMSU estimates an intensity of 128kt/919mb but with a Fair confidence. I believe JTWC will upgrade Malakas to Cat.4 at 18Z advisory.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#103 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:04 am

110 knots.

WDPN33 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161017Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AND A
WELL DEFINED 10 NM EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO
T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
LEADING TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TY MALAKAS IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REORIENT AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AS TY MALAKAS ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BUT A WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTERWARD
AS LAND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN TAIWAN TAKES PLACE. THE WEAKENING
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS TY MALAKAS TURNS NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING UNDER THE WESTERLY JET AND MAKE LANDFALL ON
KYUSHU NEAR TAU 90. SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120 TY MALAKAS WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS IN THE SPEED AT WHICH TY
MALAKAS WILL ADVANCE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK, LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#104 Postby kala » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:27 am

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#105 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Sep 16, 2016 12:17 pm

Really deep OW eye...

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#106 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 16, 2016 12:46 pm

Classic T6.5, with CMG embedded in W eye.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#107 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Sep 16, 2016 1:14 pm

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 6
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 6
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 3
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 6
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 6
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 1
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 6
finalTNumberType: 1

JMA: T6.0/CI6.0. 90 or 95 knots for 18z advisory?
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#108 Postby Cunxi Huang » Fri Sep 16, 2016 2:20 pm

JTWC: WP, 18, 2016091618, , BEST, 0, 229N, 1231E, 115, 937

JMA 95 knots
WTPQ22 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1616 MALAKAS (1616)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 23.0N 123.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 26.3N 122.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 181800UTC 28.3N 124.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 191800UTC 30.2N 127.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#109 Postby Dave C » Fri Sep 16, 2016 2:28 pm

Strange, Taiwan and JMA radars showing weaker west eyewall... possibly continuation? Looks darn healthy on sat. with excellent outflow channel into upper low to it's east.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#110 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:41 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TYPHOON 18W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEVELOPED, 10NM EYE OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 161723Z GCOM-W1 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN IMPROVED
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND CONFIRMS THE WELL DEFINED 10 NM EYE
FEATURE, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY
ABOVE THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN RADIAL OUTFLOW SUPPORTING THE
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. TY MALAKAS IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED FAR TO THE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE AXIS OF A DEEP-LAYER
STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TROCHODIAL EYE MOTION
WILL RESULT IN NEAR TERM VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK, BUT OVERALL
MOTION WILL REMAIN NORTHWARD. BEYOND TAU 24 TY 18W WILL ROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE
RECEDES EASTWARD AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST, ACCELERATING AFTER TAU 48. THE POINT SOURCE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER TOP OF TY 18W FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS, HELPING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM.
AFTER TAU 12, THE POINT SOURCE DISSIPATES, CHOKING OFF THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TAU 48. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO
THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR
SHORT PERIOD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN KYUSHU BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96,
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND LAND INTERACTION
EFFECTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48,
WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CONSENSUS FORECAST. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#111 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:52 pm

I think it's now getting the "Taiwan effect." But somehow the core is passing a safe distance away from northern Taiwan, which is a good thing.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#112 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:58 pm

18W MALAKAS
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 16, 2016:

Location: 22.9°N 123.1°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#113 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:24 pm

Yonagunijima reporting 948.5 mb and winds of 101 mph sustain.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#114 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:06 pm

The ECMWF solutions keep restrengthening Malakas quite a bit in the East China Sea before sending it towards Kyushu. I'm not too savvy to that type of solution, especially since it may take over 24 hours for Malakas to move far enough away from Taiwan to avoid any more interaction, but it could be something to watch for.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#115 Postby R o x » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:24 pm

i'm south shy of Hsinchu (Zhunan) and it's totally wind silent here; skies gray however with water start coming down
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#116 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:48 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOUD-FILLED AND RAGGED EYE 10NM EYE. A 162249Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A VERY WEAK EYE FEATURE WITH THE SYSTEM
BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRICAL OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND
RADAR FIX DATA BASED ON TAIWAN RADAR DATA WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS FROM DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PGTW RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KTS) TO T5.5 (105
KTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE POINT SOURCE
PREVIOUSLY OVER TY 18W HAS MOVED OFF TO THE WEST, AND NOW IS
PRODUCING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
SUPPORTING THE WEAKENING TREND. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30
CELSIUS. TY MALAKAS IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE AXIS OF A DEEP-LAYER
STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. BEYOND TAU 12 THE
SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS
THE STEERING RIDGE RECEDES EASTWARD AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, ACCELERATING AFTER TAU 48. AS THE
POINT SOURCE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN, POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TAU 48, PRODUCING A SINGLE-CHANNEL OUTFLOW
SCENARIO, AND ALLOWING FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48.
BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR SHORT PERIOD
THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN KYUSHU BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96,
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND LAND INTERACTION
EFFECTS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 96, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY DISSIPATING OVER HONSHU. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE NOTED
MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#117 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 2:31 am

Highest wind gust measured in Tokorono is 117 mph.

Lowest pressure in Yonagunijima 936.9 and Gust of 149 mph!
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#118 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 17, 2016 10:58 am

Radar is showing double eyewalls, neither of which is particularly strong. Taiwan took its toll on Malakas for sure.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#119 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 5:10 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM NORTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS, AND A BROADENING CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. A 171908Z AMSU 89 GHZ
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (AROUND 28C), HOWEVER OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAINS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING ON A MORE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY AND ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR AND EMBEDS DEEPER INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AS
VWS SLOWLY INCREASES. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU,
JAPAN, JUST AFTER TAU 48.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY MALAKAS WILL THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG COASTAL JAPAN WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES. VWS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE, RESULTING IN
RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 96, JUST OFFSHORE OF TOKYO. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF TY MALAKAS, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48.
THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#120 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:42 pm

Concentric eyewalls spotted on IR.

Image
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