WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#121 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 17, 2016 8:53 pm

Inner eyewall looks to be fading.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#122 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 17, 2016 11:35 pm

Just waiting on the new eye to clear out now.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#123 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 18, 2016 2:05 am

:uarrow: Big recovery boost given by the trough interaction
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#124 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:47 am

Image

I really like the new color scheme...

WDPN33 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FURTHER
WARMING OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD-TOPS, WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 10-NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE
IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (AROUND 28C). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE STR AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU
BY TAU 36. TY MALAKAS WILL DRAG ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE
JAPANESE ALPS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 40
KNOTS), WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DISSIPATION OVER HONSHU BY TAU 72. THE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
LATERAL SPEED, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#125 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:47 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2016 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 27:50:59 N Lon : 124:46:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 951.4mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +10.0C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 78km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.1 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#126 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 4:57 am

Image

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:42 am

Very impressive...

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#128 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:42 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2016 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 27:47:24 N Lon : 124:49:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 949.3mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : +12.7C Cloud Region Temp : -62.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 78km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.0 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#129 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2016 8:59 am

Looks to me like JTWC got caught by the reintensification. At the current moment, a light grey CDO with a black ring surrounding a warm medium grey eye actually yields a raw DT of 6.0. Anyway, I'd probably put the 12Z intensity at 100 kt or so, a bit higher than JTWC's 90 kt. It looks like JTWC missed the warm medium grey eye in their last bulletin (instead classified it as off-white), so that would explain the difference in intensity estimates between us (12Z BD IR image included below). Constraints would be a little bit of an issue, with that intensity jump (JTWC went 75 kt at 06Z), but the trends in ADT and SATCON were actually rising at that point, suggesting that JTWC was too low with that intensity estimate.

Image

TPPN10 PGTW 181222

A. TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 18/1200Z

C. 27.98N

D. 125.13E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART


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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#130 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:07 am

Malakas is getting a nice ventilation boost, much like Goni last year in about the same location.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#131 Postby StormChaser75 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:01 am

Malakas right now reminds me of wilma when it was making its florida landfall in 2005, albeit a little weaker then wilma was.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#132 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:44 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 181839

A. TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 18/1800Z

C. 28.69N

D. 126.09E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#133 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:34 pm

18W MALAKAS 160918 1800 28.7N 126.1E WPAC 105 948

Category 3...
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#134 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:34 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2016 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 28:53:36 N Lon : 126:22:32 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 942.3mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +14.6C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.3 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#135 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:36 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES
FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE
SAME REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS KNES. TY 18W HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. RECENT
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A 13 NM DIAMETER
EYE. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER HAVE DRIVEN
THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW, STORM MOTION IN PHASE
WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR HAS PREVENTED ANY NEGATIVE IMPACT TO THE
CIRCULATION SO FAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NEAR-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO COUNTERACT THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER LAND AFTER TAU 12 WILL RESULTS IN STEADY TO
RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT PASSES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AS IT
COMPLETES THE TRANSITION AROUND TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE
JAPANESE ENSEMBLE TRACKER, JENI, REMAINING THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER
DEPICTING A TRACK THAT CROSSES HONSHU INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MAJORITY TRACK GROUPING, AND LIES NEAR
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#136 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:37 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2016 Time : 224000 UTC
Lat : 29:20:00 N Lon : 126:56:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 939.9mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +14.7C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.5 degrees

****************************************************
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#137 Postby StormChaser75 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 6:51 pm

First few visible images as the sun comes up on cat 3 Typhoon Malakas
Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#138 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:17 pm

Impressive.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#139 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:33 pm

Looks to be headed to a southern Kyushu landfall in about 15 hours or so.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#140 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:37 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES, AS WELL AS
RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS.
TY 18W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER HAVE ENABLED TY 18W TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW, STORM MOTION IN PHASE
WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR HAS PREVENTED NEGATIVE IMPACTS TO THE
CIRCULATION THUS FAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO COUNTERACT THE POTENTIALLY
NEGATIVE IMPACT OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER LAND AFTER TAU 12
WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND TAU 36 AS IT PASSES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HONSHU. HOWEVER, TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
JAPANESE ENSEMBLE TRACKER, JENI, WHICH DEPICTS A TRACK ACROSS HONSHU
AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, AND HWRF, WHICH DEPICTS A TRACK INTO
CENTRAL HONSHU AND INLAND DISSIPATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS
THE MAJORITY TRACK GROUPING, AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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