WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#141 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:55 am

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Spot too the NNE in the band a torn?
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#142 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:20 am

Moving ever closer...

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#143 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:25 am

WDPN33 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND A
WELL-DEFINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WHICH LINES UP WITH A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
THE 190311Z GCOM PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY THE IN-PHASE
STORM MOTION, EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE STR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN KYUSHU BEFORE TAU 12.
TY MALAKAS WILL THEN DRAG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE
LAND INTERACTION, IN ADDITION TO STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS),
WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DISSIPATION. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN LATERAL SPEED, BUT OVERALL,
THE TIGHT GROUPING LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#144 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 am

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#145 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:27 am

WDPN33 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTH OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND LOST CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS IT BEGAN
TO ENCOUNTER CROSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE JAPANESE LANDMASS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM KYUSHU WHICH
LINES UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 190942Z SSMIS PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO STRONG (25-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE
STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
KYUSHU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TY MALAKAS WILL THEN DRAG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE LAND INTERACTION, IN ADDITION TO VERY
STRONG VWS (GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS), WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN LATERAL SPEED, BUT OVERALL, THE TIGHT GROUPING LENDS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#146 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:56 am

Kyushu landfall is coming very soon now.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#147 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:11 am

Malakas has made landfall in far southern Kyushu.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#148 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:34 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SYSTEM THAT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN KYUSHU. THE POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND JMA
RADAR FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD REPORTING T4.5 (77 KNOTS). RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM KANOYA AIR BASE SHOW THE SUSTAINED WINDS REACHED 56 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 95 KNOTS AT 191642Z, AS TY MALAKAS PASSED CLOSE TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VALUES OF WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLY JET AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE NEAR 28
CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY MALAKAS IS TRAVELING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE ALONG THE SHORELINE OF
SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL DISRUPT THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH RISING SHEAR VALUES WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. SSTS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12, BUT AS TY MALAKAS PASSES THE KII
PENINSULA SSTS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE
WEAKENING TREND. TY MALAKAS IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT
START TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER TY MALAKAS PASSES YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
DUE TO A DRASTICALLY WEAKENED SYSTEM.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#149 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:39 pm

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#150 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:35 pm

Typhoon Malakas Makes Landfall in Kyushu, Japan; Heavy Rain and Flooding Expected

A wind gust to nearly 100 mph has been reported at Makurazaki in Kagoshima Prefecture. Nearby Ibusuki clocked a wind gust up to 95 mph.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#151 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:09 pm

Malakas is making another landfall over Honshu now.

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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#152 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:37 am

Image

Image



WDPN33 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 200625Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN
EXPOSED CENTER DISPLACED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION; THIS
POSITION COINCIDES WELL WITH THE 200600Z JMA RADAR FIX POSITION AND
THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT 20/0400Z TS
18W MADE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU ABOUT 13NM NORTHWEST OF NANKI-
SHIRAHAMA AIRPORT, WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 50
KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COASTAL CITY OF
SHIONOMISAKI (33.4N 135.8E) INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 46 KNOTS.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
CURRENTLY TS 18W IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION, PERSISTENT STRONG VWS AND COOLER SST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Low

#153 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:50 am

JMA has dropped Malakas to a low.

Image

LOW
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 20 September 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 20 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N34°00' (34.0°)
E138°00' (138.0°)
Direction and speed of movement E 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
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