WPAC: MALAKAS - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:38 pm

1900hurricane wrote:I feel like it's hard for me to accurately assess Malakas's intensity after staring at Meranti for so long. :P

Outflow is still a problem in the NW quad.



:lol: I think this is also a Cat 5.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#62 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:56 pm

It still does not have that look IMO. It looks like Matmo in 2014 when it became a typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:13 pm

TXPQ28 KNES 132123
TCSWNP

A. 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 13/2030Z

C. 15.0N

D. 134.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/S0.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET
IS 3.0 BASED OFF SLOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE PT WAS ADJUSTED TO 3.5. FT
IS BASED ON PT...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT LLCC LOCATION AND BANDING
FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/1847Z 14.9N 134.6E SSMIS


...MICHAEL
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#64 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:18 pm

euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:I feel like it's hard for me to accurately assess Malakas's intensity after staring at Meranti for so long. :P

Outflow is still a problem in the NW quad.



:lol: I think this is also a Cat 5.

Heh, my problem is I see it and think it sucks and want to give it a 35 kt intensity or something like that. :P

IR superimposed with microwave imagery does show that the circulation is actually centered up in the convection pretty nicely, so it actually does have some decent organization to it. The biggest minus remains that it is still dealing with the outflow of mothership Meranti. It's almost free though.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#65 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:36 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Heh, my problem is I see it and think it sucks and want to give it a 35 kt intensity or something like that. :P

IR superimposed with microwave imagery does show that the circulation is actually centered up in the convection pretty nicely, so it actually does have some decent organization to it. The biggest minus remains that it is still dealing with the outflow of mothership Meranti. It's almost free though.

Image


Haha I agree, feels weird calling this a typhoon or even a 60kt TS by JTWC estimate. I remember how Matmo was classified as TY when it's looking badly sheared.. and if I remember correctly, it was also struggling due to the outflow of the stronger Typhoon Rammasun.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#66 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:44 pm

Here is Malakas with reference to Meranti.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#67 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:52 pm

Looks decent in latest microwave imagery (SSMIS 85 GHz) with a developing eyewall. I would agree with you though, Malakas looks ew for a typhoon. It doesn't look "malakas" for now, but that's going to change soon. :lol:
Last edited by mrbagyo on Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#68 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:55 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 140029

A. TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 14/0000Z

C. 15.75N

D. 132.64E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .70 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1847Z 15.03N 134.30E SSMS


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#69 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:06 pm

Over a full wrap of curved banding on visible imagery would yield a DT of 4.0 (or maybe even 4.5, but I don't have a log10 spiral on me, so I can't tell for sure if it wraps quite far enough for that).

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#70 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:03 am

WDPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEFINED CLOUD LINES PULLING INTO THE CIRCULATION
FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSCURED BY A
DEEPENING CDO FEATURE. A 132147Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE UNCHANGED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING AS THE IMPACTS
FROM THE OUTFLOW OF STY 16W CONTINUE TO REDUCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) REMAINS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) BUT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TS 18W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF STY 16W REDUCING, TS
MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, THE
CONSENSUS TREND CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE WEST, CLOSER TO
TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU JUST AFTER TAU 96.
STRONG VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#71 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:09 am

Latest EURO 00Z is downright terrifying. It tracks Malakas even closer to Taiwan and this time, the largest city, Taipei will see something after Kaohsiung with Meranti.

It literally stalls it offshore for 3-4 days then sideswipes Shanghai, the world's most populated city.

I'd imagine the surge...

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#72 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:21 am

GFS is much more behaved.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#73 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:46 am

WDPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 647 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AS A COLD DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 140528Z AMSU-
B MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT IS ENHANCING EASTWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TS 18W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. TS MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS VWS
DECREASES AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK OF 120
KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, THE CONSENSUS TREND CONTINUES
TO SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE WEST, CLOSER TO TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU JUST AFTER TAU 96.
STRONG VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE INSTABILITY
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#74 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 4:48 am

TPPN10 PGTW 140907

A. TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 14/0830Z

C. 16.08N

D. 131.75E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .90 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 3.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
14/0528Z 15.82N 132.28E MMHS


HART
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#75 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:19 am

3.5 from JTWC and 4.0 from KNES. Finally up to typhoon.

TXPQ28 KNES 140854
TCSWNP

A. 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 14/0830Z

C. 16.0N

D. 131.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...CENTER EMBEDDED IN MG FOR DT=4.0. MET=3.5 WITH PT=4.0.
FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/0542Z 15.8N 132.5E SSMI


...SALEMI
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#76 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 14, 2016 10:34 am

It might be time to watch out for Malakas. The typhoon is setting up a pretty stout outflow pattern. Poleward outflow is streaming into the TUTT to the northeast, and equatorial outflow is being dumped into the Tropical Easterly Jet.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#77 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 14, 2016 10:44 am

1900hurricane wrote:It might be time to watch out for Malakas. The typhoon is setting up a pretty stout outflow pattern. Poleward outflow is streaming into the TUTT to the northeast, and equatorial outflow is being dumped into the Tropical Easterly Jet.

Image



And Taiwan might just be the target again.. Also can't help but notice the system east of Malakas..
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#78 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:23 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 141440

A. TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS)

B. 14/1430Z

C. 16.43N

D. 130.35E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. CNTR EMB IN LG YIELDS DT
OF 4.5. MET AND PT YIELD 4.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#79 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:24 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE 140938Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST THAT
IS ENHANCING EASTWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
VENTILATION TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STR. TY MALAKAS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM WILL
REACH A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, MAKING LANDFALL IN KYUSHU JUST AFTER TAU 96.
STRONG VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST; OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MALAKAS - Typhoon

#80 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:26 am

WDPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A 142214Z AMSU 89 IMAGE REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS. TY 18W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY MALAKAS
WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU
36. FROM TAU 36 TO 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FOREWARD
SPEED AT IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND TRACK ON
A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS WILL ALSO INCREASE
RAPIDLY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120 LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING OF TY
MALAKAS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN KYUSHU BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF
RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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