EPAC: ORLENE - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: ORLENE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:20 pm

EP, 92, 2016090800, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1058W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 92, 2016090806, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1067W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 92, 2016090812, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1075W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS028, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
EP, 92, 2016090818, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1081W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:27 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 8 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This
system is currently producing a large but disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby Darvince » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:41 am

Hopefully this one won't bust like 91E? :lol:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:41 am

Darvince wrote:Hopefully this one won't bust like 91E? :lol:


Very likely to form IMO. Most of the systems following this west / northwest path this season have developed. Not to mention it's already up to 50% / 80%... :D

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 850 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early
next week while the low moves west-northwestward and then
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2016 6:55 pm

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 800
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or
early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:17 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula are gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or
two while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:00 pm

Image

12z ECMWF.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:08 pm

12z GFS calling for a long tracked hurricane, peaking at around 970mbar.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:14 pm

12z HWRF

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:32 pm

100%-100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located about
730 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become better defined since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are favorable for further development, and only a
small increase in the low's associated shower and thunderstorm
activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression
tonight or tomorrow while it moves northwestward or west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:42 pm

Well, here we go! :D

I'm almost sure it'll get upgraded by 8 PM PDT. :)
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 9:37 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016

The area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has become better
organized during the last several hours. Earlier ASCAT data
indicated that the low had a well-defined center, and the latest
infrared images show enough organized deep convection in a band in
the northwestern quadrant declare this system a tropical depression.
The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the TAFB
satellite estimate. This is the earliest 16th tropical cyclone
formation in the eastern Pacific since 1992.

The depression is forecast to be in an environment of light shear,
warm waters and a humid mid-level atmosphere for at least a few
days. There are no obvious reasons why this cyclone would not
intensify, other than a somewhat broad initial wind structure, and
guidance is in fairly good agreement on at least gradual
strengthening for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is
near or slightly above the intensity guidance after 24 hours, and
this forecast could turn out to be conservative, especially in a few
days, if the system develops an inner core. The long range
intensity is leveled off due to the uncertainty of what latitude the
cyclone will be located at after day 3, which is pretty critical in
that portion of the eastern Pacific due to the tight SST gradient.

An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 310/10. The depression
is likely to move generally northwestward for the next couple of
days around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. A weakness in
the ridge near 120-125 degrees west should cause the cyclone to turn
north-northwestward and decelerate as it enters weaker steering
currents near the ridge axis. The weakness is forecast to fill in
by all the models on days 4 and 5, and this restrengthened ridge
would steer the cyclone generally westward at a faster forward speed
near the end of the forecast period. Overall, the models agree on
the synoptic scenario, albeit with some timing disagreements. The
NHC forecast track is close to the model consensus, which has been
an excellent guidance tool to smooth through the along and cross
track model differences so far in the 2016 eastern Pacific season.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 13.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.9N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 16.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.9N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.7N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 19.1N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 9:47 pm

EPAC continues to be impressive. With regard to numbers we're ahead of even last year at this time.
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:53 pm

Code: Select all

  11/0000 UTC   13.5N    114.6W       T1.5/1.5         92E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:49 pm

A doppelganger of Lester (maybe a couple of degrees to the north).
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby kala » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:32 am

wxmann_91 wrote:A doppelganger of Lester (maybe a couple of degrees to the north).


I was thinking the same thing :P
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby Krit-tonkla » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:13 am

06z Best track has Orlene.

EP, 16, 2016091106, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1154W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ORLENE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
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Re: EPAC: SIXTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Krit-tonkla » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:37 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110836
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016

There has been an impressive increase in the organization of the
depression's cloud pattern since the last advisory. An ASCAT pass
indicates that the low-level center is located just inside what
appears to be a formative central dense overcast (CDO), whose cloud
top temperatures have cooled significantly. A well-developed
convective band also spirals outward from the CDO, now covering much
of the western semicircle of the circulation. The earlier ASCAT pass
showed peak uncontaminated winds of 32 kt. Given this datum, a
satellite classification of T2.5 from TAFB, and some further
increase in organization since the time of the pass, the initial
intensity estimate is increased to 35 kt.

The best estimate of Orlene's initial motion estimate is 315/11.
The cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico today. In 24 to 48 hours, Orlene's forward motion should
decrease significantly when the cyclone encounters a weakness in
the subtropical ridge between 120W and 125W, caused by a southward
extension of a mid- to upper-level trough near the United States
West Coast. A further reduction in forward speed and a turn toward
the north-northwest is expected by 72 hours, and Orlene could even
come to a halt in the face of weak steering around this time. There
is widespread agreement in the guidance that the subtropical ridge
will re-establish itself north of Orlene in about 4 days, which
should result in a westward or possibly a west-southwestward motion
with an increase in forward speed. Overall, little change was made
to the previous forecast track, and the current one is close to a
consensus based on the ECMWF and GFS solutions.

East-northeasterly shear currently over Orlene is forecast to
diminish during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves
over warm waters. Steady strengthening is expected, even though the
mid-level moisture will be only marginally favorable and SSTs will
begin to gradually lower. If Orlene can quickly establish an inner
core, the result could be greater intensification than this
forecast predicts. The intensity forecast becomes challenging after
48 hours since Orlene should be straddling the 26.5-deg C isotherm
for the remainder of the forecast period while the environmental
moisture becomes critically low. There could also be some temporary
increase in southwesterly shear. The combination of these factors
should result in a steady-state or slowly weakening cyclone from
72-120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
previous one, near the multi-model consensus, but lower than the
SHIPS and FSU Superensemble output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.8N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 15.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 16.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 17.6N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 18.2N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 19.1N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 19.1N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 18.8N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:41 am

Very impressive convection! :eek:

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:51 am

She does have very deep convection this morning. Should be another good ACE producer. Probably has a shot at a major
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