EPAC: ORLENE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:41 am

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016

A central dense overcast has become established over Orlene's
center, with very cold temperatures of -86C at cloud top level.
There is little to no deep-layer shear, and the cyclone has very
good upper-level outflow, especially to the north and west.
Because the Dvorak rules don't yet allow the use of an embedded
center pattern, estimates from TAFB and SAB are still at T2.5.
However, the objective UW-CIMSS ADT is higher, and given the more
consolidated structure compared to six hours ago, the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt.

Orlene is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, to the southwest of a
mid-tropospheric high located over northern Mexico. Over the next
few days, Orlene is expected to become trapped in an environment of
weak steering to the west of the subtropical ridge axis and south
of an amplifying trough over California. This should cause the
cyclone to turn north-northwestward and slow to a crawl by days 2
and 3. After that time, a re-establishment of the ridge should
force an acceleration toward the west on days 4 and 5. There is
not much spread among the track models during the entire forecast
period. Except for a slight northeastward shift at 36 and 48
hours, the updated NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous
one and lies closest to the TVCX multi-model consensus and Florida
State Superensemble.

Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support
additional strengthening, and there are signs that rapid
intensification could occur. There is a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt
intensity increase during the next 24 hours, and several intensity
models bring Orlene near or to hurricane strength in about 24
hours. Given the seemingly favorable environment, the NHC
intensity forecast is closest to the most aggressive intensity
models like the Florida State Superensemble, and it is higher than
the previous forecast during the first 48 hours. Orlene's
intensity could be limited once it slows down in 48-72 hours due to
upwelling of colder water, and thus the official forecast shows
gradual weakening after day 2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 15.4N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.2N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.1N 119.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.9N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 19.1N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 11:03 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 SEP 2016 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 15:23:59 N Lon : 116:48:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1004.9mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 4.3

Center Temp : -76.7C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 11:24 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:43 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 SEP 2016 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 15:32:35 N Lon : 117:01:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1001.1mb/ 51.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.5 4.2

Center Temp : -74.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1015mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.6 degrees
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:32 pm

Image

T4.0 with cured band pattern more than fully wrapped around the center. Likely a high end TS, with some lag.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:45 pm

Code: Select all

  11/1800 UTC   16.0N    117.2W       T3.0/3.0         ORLENE -- East Pacific 
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite images indicate that
Orlene continues to become more organized. The cyclone has
well-defined curved bands, and a recent SSMIS image showed that it
has a mid-level eye feature. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
now T3.0/45 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T3.5/55 kt.
However, ASCAT data only showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt. Given
this wide range, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Satellite data indicate that Orlene's center is a little bit
northeast of the previous estimates, and the initial motion is now
310/12 kt. There are no changes to the forecast track reasoning.
Orlene should turn northwestward and then northward and slow down
drastically during the next 48 hours when it becomes positioned to
the west of the subtropical ridge axis, and south of an amplifying
trough over California. After 48 hours, the ridge will gradually
restrengthen to the north of Orlene, forcing it toward the west with
an increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period.
The official track forecast has been shifted a little northeast of
the previous forecast to account for the repositioning of Orlene's
center, but otherwise it still closely follows the TVCX multi-model
consensus.

Given Orlene's improved structure, as well as favorable sea surface
temperatures and low shear, rapid intensification still looks like a
possibility. The SHIPS guidance continues to indicate a 1-in-3
chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours, and the raw
guidance itself brings Orlene to a hurricane in about 24 hours. The
NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity close to
the SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble in about 36 hours, which
is at the top end of the guidance envelope. After 36 hours,
Orlene's slow motion over sea surface temperatures between 26-27C is
likely to lead to upwelling of colder water, and the cyclone is
expected to gradually weaken through the end of the forecast period.
This new forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 16.3N 117.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.9N 119.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 18.6N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.5N 120.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 19.0N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 19.0N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:42 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ORLENE EP162016 09/11/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 69 73 80 83 82 76 70 66 60 59
V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 69 73 80 83 82 76 70 66 60 59
V (KT) LGEM 50 58 65 71 75 79 79 75 69 65 62 60 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 2 5 9 6 8 6 10 7 8 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 -4 -5 -3 0 -1 3 2 2
SHEAR DIR 59 144 192 224 109 155 155 137 94 112 75 72 80
SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 141 138 136 130 127 126 125 127 130 134 131
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4
700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 55 57 53 51 44 36 30 27 23 23
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 22 23 24 26 26 25 23 24 22 23
850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 2 -2 -2 -13 -15 1 12 30 39 45 58
200 MB DIV 35 44 41 15 45 54 11 -8 1 -16 -43 0 -20
700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0
LAND (KM) 1083 1099 1098 1093 1091 1059 1038 1050 1088 1204 1360 1573 1820
LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.9 18.8
LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.1 118.8 119.3 119.7 120.1 120.2 120.6 121.2 122.5 124.5 127.0 129.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 3 2 3 5 8 11 13 13
HEAT CONTENT 28 19 15 14 17 16 13 10 5 3 4 3 5

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 29.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 7. 4. 6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 23. 30. 33. 32. 26. 20. 16. 10. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.0 117.3

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 7.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.50 4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.82 8.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 8.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 6.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 1.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 334.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.43 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.2 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 9.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 28.3% 54.5% 39.1% 32.1% 31.1% 54.2% 28.1%
Logistic: 36.7% 56.7% 42.4% 34.9% 22.1% 19.0% 11.1%
Bayesian: 7.0% 15.3% 6.7% 2.3% 1.1% 3.3% 0.3%
Consensus: 24.0% 42.2% 29.4% 23.1% 18.1% 25.5% 13.1%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:46 pm

I'm losing faith in ASCAT slowly. I don't recall QucikSAT being that below Dvorak for Tropical Storms, and aircraft data has suggested a low bias for T2.5-T3.5 systems.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Iune » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:07 pm

Fun fact: This storm marks the first use of the name Orlene since the 1992 Pacific hurricane season.
I'm curious to see how many more names we'll get before the end of the season. :P
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:22 pm

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:56 pm

Yeah, she is probably on her way to a major. Don't see any major inhibitors in the near term. Is probably a cane now

Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:57 pm

Wow!!! Special advisory anyone?

Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:13 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Wow!!! Special advisory anyone?


I don't see the need, since it's not gonna look much different in a few hours.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:54 pm

Code: Select all

EP, 16, 201609120000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1650N, 11800W,      , 2,  55, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  JM,  VIM, 3, 3535 /////,      ,   , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=3.5 FTBO DT
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 8:20 pm

Code: Select all

EP, 16, 2016091200,   , BEST,   0, 164N, 1180W,  55, 1001, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,   50,   40,   50, 1013,  150,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     ORLENE, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 028,
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:49 pm

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
cyclone has continued to become more organized, with a well-defined
low- to mid-level eye noted in a 2336Z SSMI/S overpass. Orlene now
has a large, circular CDO along with a symmetrical and expanding
upper-level outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT
is 60-65 kt. Given the rather large average eye diameter of about 35
nmi, the initial intensity is set below the ADT values and follows
the subjective estimate of 55 kt.

The initial motion is 305/08 kt based heavily on microwave eye
position estimates. Although there is some divergence in the models,
they are good agreement overall on Orlene gradually slowing down
and moving north-northwestward and northward into a break in the
subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that, the break in
the ridge along 120W longitude is forecast to fill back in as a
shortwave trough lifts out quickly to the northeast. The
re-strengthening ridge to the north of Orlene is then expected to
accelerate the cyclone on a westward track on days 3-5. The new NHC
forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the
GFS-ECMWF model solutions.

Orlene is expected to remain in a very low-shear environment for the
next 72 hours, which typically favors rapid intensification.
However, the cyclone is also expected to remain embedded within a
fairly dry mid-level environment with humidity values of 50-55
percent. Given that Orlene has already developed a solid eyewall
structure, little if any dry air intrusions should be able to
penetrate into the eye in the short term. Based on the favorable
low-shear and already impressive outflow pattern, a period of rapid
intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours, followed
by a leveling off in the intensity due to cooler waters and possible
cold upwelling occurring beneath the cyclone. By 48 hours and
beyond, gradual weakening is expected due to Orlene moving into a
considerably drier and more stable environment characterized by
mid-level humidities in the 20- to 30-percent range. The intensity
forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope close
to the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble models, and is just a
little higher than the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 16.6N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.3N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 18.0N 119.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.6N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 19.2N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 18.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 18.9N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:28 am

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

Orlene continues to strength. Satellite images indicate that the
relatively compact tropical cyclone has become better organized
since the previous advisory with an eye occasionally evident in
infrared images. Recent microwave data also indicate that the inner
core of the cyclone is better defined. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB were 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/77 kt, respectively, and
automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are
4.4/75 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased
to 70 kt, making Orlene a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Orlene has strengthened at a rapid rate of 35
kt during the past 24 hours.

The hurricane is moving northwestward, or 305 degrees, at 8 kt. A
trough over the U.S. Pacific northwest is expected to dig southward
during the next day or two, causing a significant weakness in the
subtropical ridge. This pattern change should cause Orlene to turn
northwestward or northward and slow down later today, and the
cyclone will likely come to a crawl in the 24-48-hour time period.
Beyond that time, the trough is expected to lift out allowing
ridging to become re-established to the north of the system. This
should result in Orlene moving westward at a faster pace. The
models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Additional strengthening seems likely during the next 24 hours
while the hurricane remains over warm water, and in an environment
of low wind shear and relatively moist conditions. After that
time, a slow weakening should commence due to decreasing relative
humidity values and cooler water temperatures, likely aided by
cold water upwelling. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high
end of the models, in best agreement with the LGEM and Florida
State Superensemble guidance, and is slightly higher than the
previous one in the short term.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 17.1N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 17.7N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 18.5N 119.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 19.0N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.2N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.2N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 18.9N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#39 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:46 am

Tenth hurricane of the season and it's only September. :eek:
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#40 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:50 am

Just got back from Cali.

Orlene looks ready to take off. Impressive outflow in nearly every quad.
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