EPAC: ORLENE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:46 am

12/1200 UTC 17.2N 119.2W T4.5/4.5 ORLENE -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#42 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:52 am

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  ORLENE      EP162016  09/12/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    80    87    92    95    95    93    84    78    71    65    62    61    58
V (KT) LAND       80    87    92    95    95    93    84    78    71    65    62    61    58
V (KT) LGEM       80    89    94    95    94    89    84    79    75    71    70    70    67
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     3     5     5     4     7    11     8     2     6     7     2     4
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     3     0    -1    -4    -3    -3    -3     0     0    -1     1    -1
SHEAR DIR        248   253   167   188   221   135   137   102    89    49    52    72    47
SST (C)         28.0  27.8  27.5  27.3  27.1  26.9  26.9  26.9  26.8  26.8  26.9  26.6  26.4
POT. INT. (KT)   143   140   136   134   131   129   130   131   132   132   134   130   128
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.6   0.5   0.6   0.9   0.9   0.8   0.9   0.5   0.7
TH_E DEV (C)       7     6     6     5     5     5     5     5     4     5     5     5     5
700-500 MB RH     57    56    57    54    55    50    41    34    31    29    25    25    24
MODEL VTX (KT)    20    22    23    23    23    25    23    23    22    20    21    23    22
850 MB ENV VOR    -8   -19   -21   -21   -27   -19    -2    14    29    31    30    26    33
200 MB DIV        28    52    58    26     3    -6   -10    -7   -37     2   -11   -17   -11
700-850 TADV      -5    -6    -3     0     0     0     0     1     2     3     2     0    -1
LAND (KM)       1107  1086  1067  1040  1013  1007  1040  1125  1271  1442  1645  1854  2047
LAT (DEG N)     17.2  17.7  18.1  18.5  18.8  19.1  19.2  19.2  19.1  18.9  18.8  18.8  19.1
LONG(DEG W)    119.2 119.5 119.7 119.7 119.7 119.9 120.4 121.4 123.1 125.3 127.8 130.3 132.7
STM SPEED (KT)     7     5     4     3     3     2     3     6     9    11    12    11    11
HEAT CONTENT      15    15    16    15    13    12    12     7     3     3     6     4     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/  8      CX,CY:  -6/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  55            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  656  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   8.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           36.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -4.  -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   5.   6.   8.   9.   9.   9.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE            6.   9.  10.  10.   7.   5.   3.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   4.   4.   3.   1.   1.   4.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.  12.  15.  15.  13.   4.  -2.  -9. -15. -18. -19. -22.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   80. LAT, LON:   17.2   119.2

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE     09/12/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    25.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.78           6.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    56.9      40.3  to  144.5       0.16           1.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    14.8       0.0  to   75.9       0.19           1.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     8.5      38.9  to    2.1       0.83           6.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     4.1      18.9  to    1.4       0.85           5.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    80.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.71           4.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    33.4     -11.0  to  135.3       0.30           1.1
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   526.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.16           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.5       2.1  to   -1.7       0.69          -0.9
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    31.1      81.4  to    0.0       0.62           0.5
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  44% is   7.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  35% is   2.7 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  26% is   3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   3.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  20% is   6.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    44.3%   35.1%   26.1%   20.6%   19.6%   17.3%    0.0%
    Logistic:    19.6%   25.4%   20.8%   17.7%   10.6%    5.9%    1.6%
    Bayesian:    12.5%    5.4%    2.4%    1.1%    0.3%    0.1%    0.0%
   Consensus:    25.5%   22.0%   16.4%   13.1%   10.2%    7.8%    0.5%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE     09/12/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:42 am

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

Satellite images and an earlier GMI microwave overpass show
a ragged cloud-filled eye with deep convective curved bands in the
eastern half of Orlene's circulation. A blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates yield an initial
intensity of 80 kt for this advisory. Some additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 12-24 hours before Orlene moves into
the southern extent of a more stable and dry northeastern Pacific
air mass. Consequently, a gradual weakening trend should commence
at that time. The official forecast is basically an update of the
previous advisory and sides with the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/5kt.
The cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward later tonight,
then more northward on Tuesday, as it moves south of an amplifying
mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United
States. By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to become
reestablished to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned
trough lifts northeastward. This change in the synoptic steering
pattern should result in a turn toward the west with an acceleration
in forward motion.

The tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted based on an
earlier CIRA AMSU wind estimate.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.4N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.1N 119.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 18.8N 119.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 19.1N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 18.7N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:44 pm

Code: Select all

 12/1800 UTC   17.7N    119.2W       T5.0/5.0         ORLENE -- East Pacific 
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:56 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2016 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 17:38:21 N Lon : 119:14:03 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 968.1mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +4.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.9C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#46 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:28 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2016 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 17:37:04 N Lon : 119:09:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 964.3mb/ 99.6kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -19.0C Cloud Region Temp : -62.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.5 degrees
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#47 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2016 3:51 pm

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

Orlene continues to rapidly strengthen, with a remarkable 50 kt
increase in intensity during the past 24 hours. Orlene's eye has
warmed considerably during the past several hours and has become
more distinct and symmetric in visible imagery. Additionally,
surrounding inner core cloud tops have cooled to around -70C. A
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern has developed, consistent with
the low vertical shear environment. There still appears to be a
window of opportunity for some further strengthening during the next
12 hours or so, as indicated by most of the statistical-dynamical
intensity guidance. Afterward, a weakening trend is expected to
commence as the Orlene moves into a more stable and drier
thermodynamic environment. The official intensity forecast is
based on the IVCN model consensus and is close to the LGEM guidance
beyond the 48 hour period.

Orlene is moving more toward the north now, a little sooner than
model guidance previously indicated, and the initial motion is
estimated to be 350/5 kt. This general motion is expected to
continue over the next 24 hours within a weakness in a mid-level
ridge created by an amplifying trough over the western portion of
the United States. By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to
back westward, to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned
trough tracks northeastward. As a result in this change in the
mid- to upper-level steering flow, Orlene should turn toward the
west with an acceleration in forward motion. The new NHC forecast
track is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and lies
near the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 17.9N 119.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 18.5N 119.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.1N 119.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.1N 123.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 18.8N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 18.7N 132.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#48 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 3:57 pm

Latest frames, however, suggest that Orlene might have possibly entrained some dry air which has caused a collapse in convection in the eastern eyewall. Hopefully she can mix it out in time. :( :(

Image
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#49 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:58 pm

It's got that major look to it. By the rate it's intensifying, I'd say a Cat 4 isn't out of the question. The EPac has been impressive this year.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#50 Postby JaxGator » Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:32 pm

Kazmit_ wrote:It's got that major look to it. By the rate it's intensifying, I'd say a Cat 4 isn't out of the question. The EPac has been impressive this year.


It has and it ironically had a slow start. Orlene has been putting on a good show and I also agree that Cat 4 is within reach or might be reached later on (given a possible eyewall replacement). And there is no MJO anywhere.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#51 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:16 pm

JaxGator wrote:
Kazmit_ wrote:It's got that major look to it. By the rate it's intensifying, I'd say a Cat 4 isn't out of the question. The EPac has been impressive this year.


It has and it ironically had a slow start. Orlene has been putting on a good show and I also agree that Cat 4 is within reach or might be reached later on (given a possible eyewall replacement). And there is no MJO anywhere.


I'm not too sure about category 4 status since it'll be dealing with dry air by tomorrow. But anything's possible in the EPAC. :)
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#52 Postby JaxGator » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:59 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
Kazmit_ wrote:It's got that major look to it. By the rate it's intensifying, I'd say a Cat 4 isn't out of the question. The EPac has been impressive this year.


It has and it ironically had a slow start. Orlene has been putting on a good show and I also agree that Cat 4 is within reach or might be reached later on (given a possible eyewall replacement). And there is no MJO anywhere.


I'm not too sure about category 4 status since it'll be dealing with dry air by tomorrow. But anything's possible in the EPAC. :)


And the Atlantic too at times. :) Perhaps a Cat 3 but yeah it's possible. If there's no to little shear, then the hurricane can plow through the dry air or filtering it out.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:33 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
Kazmit_ wrote:It's got that major look to it. By the rate it's intensifying, I'd say a Cat 4 isn't out of the question. The EPac has been impressive this year.


It has and it ironically had a slow start. Orlene has been putting on a good show and I also agree that Cat 4 is within reach or might be reached later on (given a possible eyewall replacement). And there is no MJO anywhere.


I'm not too sure about category 4 status since it'll be dealing with dry air by tomorrow. But anything's possible in the EPAC. :)


If anything's been learned from Lester and Madeline, it's that dry air is extremely overrated. But upwelling could be an issue for a short time tomorrow.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#54 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:47 pm

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

Orlene's rapid intensification episode has been interrupted.
Satellite imagery indicates some erosion of the cyclone's deep
convection, primarily over the northeastern quadrant of the
circulation. The eye has also become cloud-filled and indistinct.
A 2324 UTC SSM/I overpass suggested that an eyewall replacement is
underway, which could be the reason for the cyclone's degraded
satellite appearance. The latest satellite classification from TAFB
was T4.5/77kt and the UW-CIMSS ADT is around that value. A blend of
these data with Dvorak CI-numbers yields an initial intensity
estimate of 90 kt.

Orlene has wobbled a little east of due north during the last
several hours, but an estimate of the cyclone's longer-term initial
motion estimate is 360/05. The hurricane is about to enter a col
region, which should result in a northward or north-northwestward
drift during the next 24 hours or so. The subtropical ridge is
expected to re-strengthen in about 2 days, causing Orlene to turn
south of due west with a substantial increase in forward speed. By
120 hours, the model spread begins to widen, with the ECMWF farther
north and slower compared to the faster and more southern GFS. This
difference arises due to the models' handling of a strong mid- to
upper-tropospheric cyclone around 140W. The ECMWF shows this
feature farther south and stronger while the GFS maintains the
subtropical ridge north of Orlene. The NHC track forecast is not
much different than the previous one, but a little slower by day 5
as a result of the increasing track uncertainty.

With an eyewall replacement in progress, Orlene should continue to
slowly weaken. The cyclone will likely not be able to recover
either since it should come to a halt over a region where the
oceanic heat content rapidly drops off. Orlene's slow motion should
induce significant oceanic upwelling, which could accelerate the
rate of weakening during the next day or two. After that time,
the cyclone will encounter an environment of critically low
moisture, which should promote additional slow weakening. The new
NHC intensity forecast is reduced relative to the previous one and
is near the latest multi-model consensus.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 119.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.2N 119.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.7N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.9N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.3N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 18.9N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 19.0N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#55 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:02 pm

Just maybe it might be able to pull a Darby and unexpectedly become a major during the next few hours.

That's if it can clear out an eye by then.
:D
Last edited by hurricanes1234 on Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#56 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:03 pm

She's definitely recovered some from earlier

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#57 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:26 pm

This will no doubt become a major, but a 4 or above seems quite iffy to me

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#58 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:29 pm

Kimberlain is taking a huge gamble, which may work out for him. His forecast will look good if this a) this actually ERC's b) this does so in a way that leaves room for dry air Or 2) mid-level dry air can destroy a well formed hurricane which I'm not convinced of yet.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#59 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:14 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Kimberlain is taking a huge gamble, which may work out for him. His forecast will look good if this a) this actually ERC's b) this does so in a way that leaves room for dry air Or 2) mid-level dry air can destroy a well formed hurricane which I'm not convinced of yet.


Yeah he should of kept the forecast intensity neutral until it showed either continued degradation or recovery. Because right now that forecast will bust.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#60 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Sep 13, 2016 12:22 am

If only Orlene's name equivalent Arlene was this interesting on the Atlantic side
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