EPAC: ORLENE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#61 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:07 am

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Recent microwave images suggest that there has been some erosion of
the southern portion of the eyewall overnight, and the overall
satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to gradually
degrade. The eye has become cloud filled in infrared satellite
pictures and the convective tops surrounding the eye have warmed
overnight. Despite the recent loss of organization, a blend of the
subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers yields an initial
intensity estimate of 90 kt. The leveling-off of Orlene's intensity
appears to have been caused by 15-20 kt of south-southwesterly shear
as diagnosed by a UW/CIMSS shear analysis. The shear conditions are
not expected to change much today. Meanwhile, Orlene is forecast to
move very slowly during the next 36 h, which is likely to cause
upwelling of cooler waters. These conditions are expected to cause
gradual weakening during the next day or so. After that time, the
shear is expected to decrease, but less favorable thermodynamic
conditions are likely to continue to contribute to weakening. The
new NHC intensity forecast shows a little more weakening during the
next 2-3 days, but is close to the previous advisory thereafter.
This is in good agreement with the latest Florida State
Superensemble and close to the IVCN consensus model.

It appears that the hurricane is beginning to slow down as
anticipated, with an estimated initial motion of 360/4 kt. Orlene
will be within an area of light steering currents during the next
day or so, and only a slow northward motion is anticipated today.
By Wednesday, a subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is
forecast to strengthen, which should begin to steer Orlene westward
at a faster rate of speed. Near the end of the forecast period,
the models begin to diverge, with the latest GFS now taking a
stronger system more poleward, while the ECMWF shows a weaker Orlene
moving more westward. Since this is a flip-flop in the models from
the previous runs, the NHC track maintains the more westward
solution, and is close to the GFS ensemble mean and the multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 19.2N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.7N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.1N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.2N 119.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 20.2N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.9N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.7N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#62 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:46 am

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Orlene has become less organized during the past several hours.
The eye has disappeared in infrared satellite imagery, and a recent
microwave overpass suggests that the cyclone is now tilted toward
the north-northeast. Based on an average of satellite intensity
estimates from SAB, TAFB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus, the
initial intensity is reduced to 85 kt, and this could be a little
generous.

The initial motion is 015/4. Orlene is currently moving into a
break in the subtropical ridge caused a mid- to upper-level trough
over California and the adjacent waters. The dynamical models
forecast the trough to move eastward during the next 24-48 hours,
with the ridge rebuilding to the north of the tropical cyclone.
This evolution should produce a slow motion for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed
during most of the balance of the forecast period. The track
guidance is in good agreement with this scenario through 96 hours,
with some divergence at 120 hours on whether Orlene will turn more
northward or continue westward. The new forecast track is similar
to the previous track and lies near the center of the cluster of
consensus and dynamical models.

Orlene is experiencing about 15 kt of southwesterly vertical wind
shear, and this is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so.
After that time, the dynamical models forecast the shear to
decrease while the cyclone moves near and parallel to the 26C sea
surface temperature isotherm. These conditions, combined with
abundant dry air seen west of the cyclone in microwave imagery,
should lead to gradual weakening through the forecast period. The
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and is
in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 19.8N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 20.2N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.3N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 20.4N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#63 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 13, 2016 10:42 am

Has she been hit by shear? Her presentation looks a lot more like higher latitude systems enhanced by troughs with the N/NE movement.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#64 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:53 pm

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Recent microwave satellite data, including an ASCAT overpass,
confirm that Orlene has become tilted with the low-level center
displaced to the south of the weak eye present in visible imagery.
Based on an average of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The microwave data indicate that the center of Orlene is farther
south than the position on the previous advisory, and the initial
motion estimate is now 015/2 kt. Orlene is now within a break in
the subtropical ridge caused a mid- to upper-level trough over
California and the adjacent waters. The dynamical models forecast
the trough to move eastward during the next 24-36 hours, with the
ridge rebuilding to the north of the tropical cyclone. This
evolution should produce a slow motion for the next 12-24 hours,
followed by a turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed
during the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance is
in good agreement with this scenario through 96 hours. After that,
there remains some spread on whether Orlene will turn more
northward, as favored by the GFS, or continue westward as favored by
the ECMWF. The new forecast track is again similar to the previous
track and lies near the center of the cluster of the consensus and
dynamical models.

Orlene is experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind
shear, and this is likely to continue for about another 24 hours.
After that time, the dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease
while the cyclone moves near and parallel to the 26C sea surface
temperature isotherm. These conditions, combined with abundant dry
air seen west of the cyclone in water vapor imagery, should lead to
gradual weakening through the forecast period. The new intensity
forecast is an again an update of the previous forecast, and it lies
near the upper edge of the envelope of intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.7N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.1N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 19.9N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 19.7N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 19.5N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#65 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:46 pm

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Microwave satellite imagery indicates that the inner-core convection
of Orlene has steadily degraded during the past 6 hours, with the
eyewall no longer closed. The eye briefly appeared in visible and
infrared imagery around 0000Z, but is not evident in conventional
satellite imagery. The initial remains at 75 kt based on consensus
subjective satellite estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB.

The microwave and conventioanl satellite dats indicate that Orlene
is drifitng northward or 360/01 kt. The cyclone is expected to
remain nearly stationary overnight, embedded within a large dreak in
the subtropical ridge. A slow westward motion is expected to begin
by early Wednesday as a shortwave trough lifts out, allowing the
ridge to build back in to the north of Orlene in 12-24 hours.
After that time, the ridge is expected to steadily stengthen,
forcing the cyclone on a general westward direction and at a much
faster forward speed. The new forecast track is again similar to
the previous track and lies near the center of the cluster of the
consensus and
dynamical models.

Orlene is experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind
shear, and this is likely to continue for about another 24 hours.
After that time, the dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease
while the cyclone moves near and parallel to the 26C sea surface
temperature isotherm. These conditions, combined with abundant dry
air seen west of the cyclone in water vapor imagery, should lead to
gradual weakening through the forecast period. The new intensity
forecast is an again an update of the previous forecast, and it lies
near the upper edge of the envelope of intensity guidance.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 20.4N 118.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.4N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 20.4N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 20.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.9N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 19.9N 133.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 20.8N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#66 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:53 pm

Does anyone think there's a possibility it could be upgraded to a major in the postseason analysis?
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#67 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:25 am

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016

There has been little change in the structure of Orlene overnight.
Recent microwave data indicate that the center is a little farther
south than previously estimated, and it is located near the
southern portion of the small central dense overcast. A blend of
the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers results in an initial wind speed
estimate of 70 kt for this advisory.

Vertical shear over Orlene is forecast to decrease today and remain
very low during the next several days, however, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a
drier and more stable air mass. These environmental conditions are
expected to result in gradual weakening of Orlene during the next
several days. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than
the previous advisory during the first 24 hours, but is unchanged
thereafter and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity model
consensus.

Orlene has become nearly stationary overnight as it is located
within a break in the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to
re-strengthen during the next couple of days, which should produce a
west or west-southwestward motion at a faster forward speed. Late
in the forecast period, a large mid- to upper-level low expected
to be well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should produce a break
in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward. The track guidance is in much better
agreement than a day ago, and the updated NHC forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 20.2N 118.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.2N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 20.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.8N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.8N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 20.1N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 21.5N 138.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#68 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:14 am

Code: Select all

  14/1200 UTC   20.7N    118.9W       T4.0/4.5         ORLENE -- East Pacific 
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#69 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2016 10:02 am

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016

A combination of conventional and microwave satellite data indicates
there has been little change in the structure of Orlene since the
last advisory, with the low-level center still displaced to the
south of the upper-level center. Satellite intensity estimates
from SAB and TAFB are unchanged since the last advisory, so the
initial intensity remains 70 kt. However, objective estimates
suggest this could be a bit generous.

There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
Vertical shear is decreasing over Orlene and it is forecast to
remain low during the next several days. However, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a
drier and more stable air mass. These environmental conditions are
expected to result in a gradual weakening during the forecast
period. The new NHC intensity forecast is changed little since
the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with the IVCN
intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is now a westward drift of 270/2. A faster
motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the
next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of
the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to
upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing
the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The new forecast track is
similar to, but a little south of, the previous track in agreement
with the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.8N 121.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 123.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#70 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:56 pm

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016

The satellite signature of Orlene continues to slowly decay, with a
small area of cold convection remaining near a cloud-filled eye. The
various satellite intensity estimates have decreased since the last
advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 65 kt.

There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
Orlene is forecast to be in an area of light vertical wind shear for
the next 3-4 days, after which the shear is forecast to increase
again. Even with the favorable shear, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a drier and
more stable air mass. These environmental conditions are expected
to result in gradual weakening during the forecast period. The new
NHC intensity forecast is again changed little since the previous
advisory and it lies on the low side of the intensity guidance in
best agreement with the SHIPS model.

Orlene is moving a little faster toward the west or 270/5. A faster
motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the
next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of
the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to
upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing
the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The forecast guidance had
shifted southward since the last advisory, especially after 48
hours. Thus, the new forecast track is also shifted southward from
72-120 hours. However, it still lies north of the center of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 20.2N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.9N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 19.8N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 19.7N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.5N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 21.0N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:53 pm

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016

Orlene's convective signature remains a small, symmetric central
dense overcast with some banding in the northern semicircle.
However, the cloud top temperatures have warmed some and the extent
of the cold cloudiness has diminished slightly during the last
several hours. A blend of the TAFB/SAB subjective Dvorak, CIMSS
Advanced Dvorak, and CIMSS/CIRA AMSU suggest that Orlene has
weakened to a tropical storm with 60 kt as the initial intensity.

Orlene is situated directly under the upper-level subtropical ridge
and thus is experiencing very low vertical shear. However, the
tropical storm is expected to ride along the 26C SST contour while
the not-very-moist environment becomes quite dry during the next
three days. In addition, by days four and five, the shear should
go up substantially as Orlene approaches a mid- to upper-level low.
The bottom line is that the tropical storm should gradually weaken.
The NHC intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM/SHIPS
statistical models and the COAMPS dynamical model, and is quite
similar to that from the previous advisory. Perhaps the biggest
uncertainty is when the deep convection will cease. The forecast
is for that to occur around day five, but it would not be surprising
if this occurred significantly earlier.

Orlene is moving toward the west-northwest at about 5 kt. The
system is expected to turn toward the west or west-southwest and
move faster for the next three to four days as mid-level ridging
builds to its north. By day five, Orlene begins responding to the
upper-level low that it approaches by turning toward the
west-northwest. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the
previous advisory and is based upon the tightly clustered members of
the multi-model TVCN consensus technique.

A 0119Z AMSU pass allowed a modification of the 34 and 50 kt
wind radii to be more asymmetric. The NHC wind radii forecast is
based upon the multi-model RVCN consensus technique and is slightly
smaller than that from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 20.4N 120.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 20.0N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 19.7N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.6N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.5N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 20.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 21.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:21 am

Latest GFS keeps this alive and has a weak storm near Hawaii.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2016 5:27 am

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2016

Orlene has a quite small, symmetric central dense overcast tonight,
with a tiny eye occasionally making an appearance. Overall, the
convective structure has not changed much over the last few hours.
A blend of the TAFB/SAB subjective Dvorak and CIMSS Advanced Dvorak
suggests that Orlene remains a 60-kt tropical storm.

Orlene is situated directly under an upper-level subtropical ridge
and thus is experiencing very low vertical shear. However, the
tropical storm is expected to ride along the 26C SST isotherm while
the not-very-moist environment becomes quite dry during the next
three days. In addition, by days four and five, the shear should go
up substantially as Orlene approaches a mid- to upper-level low. The
bottom line is that the tropical storm should gradually weaken. The
NHC intensity forecast is based upon a now more tightly clustered
set of statistical and dynamical model guidance. Perhaps the biggest
uncertainty is when Orlene's deep convection will cease. The
forecast is for that to occur around day five, but it would not be
surprising if this occurred significantly earlier.

Orlene is moving toward the west at about 6 kt. The system is
expected to move toward the west or west-southwest with a faster
forward speed during the next three to four days as mid-level
ridging builds to its north. Around day four or five, Orlene should
begin responding to the upper-level low that it approaches by
turning toward the west-northwest. The NHC track forecast is nearly
unchanged and is based upon the tightly clustered members of the
multi-model TVCN consensus technique.

A pair of ASCAT scatterometer passes indicate that Orlene has
contracted some in size for its 34 and 50 kt wind radii. The NHC
wind radii forecast is based upon the multi-model RVCN consensus
technique and is slightly smaller than that from the previous
advisory because of the smaller initial size.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 20.1N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 19.9N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.6N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.5N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 19.5N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 19.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:03 am

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2016

In spite of the dry air nearby, Orlene has re-intensified into a
hurricane. The system maintained a small CDO with an embedded
eye feature over the past several hours, although recently the eye
has become less distinct. Based on the Dvorak data T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB the intensity is set, somewhat conservatively, to 70 kt
for this advisory. Orlene should remain in a low-shear environment,
but the continued presence of dry air, with mid-level relative
humidities less than 30 percent, should cause weakening. The
official intensity forecast is very similar to the latest SHIPS
guidance. Based on the recent resurgence of the tropical cyclone,
the new NHC forecast delays the system's weakening to a remnant low
compared to the previous advisories.

There is fairly high confidence in the center fixes, and the initial
motion is just south of due west or 260/8 kt. Over the next few
days, a zonally oriented mid-level ridge should keep Orlene on a
general westward heading. Later in the forecast period, a weakness
in the ridge caused by a trough near 140W should induce a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest. The official track forecast is only
a little bit faster than the previous one, and is very close to the
multi-model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.1N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.7N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.5N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 19.5N 128.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 19.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.6N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 20.2N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 21.0N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#75 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:09 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ORLENE EP162016 09/15/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 66 64 59 52 45 42 39 36 32 27
V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 66 64 59 52 45 42 39 36 32 27
V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 68 66 61 56 52 49 46 43 40 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 7 8 5 6 7 9 14 14 18 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 1 5 2 1 0 -2 1 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 329 356 33 22 11 358 332 264 245 239 245 233 229
SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 25.9 26.0 25.9 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 127 128 129 129 127 127 127 123 123 122 120
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 27 25 25 23 24 24 25 27 30 34 37 38 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 12 13 14 13 12 13 13 12 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 0 -11 -14 -4 0 6 27 38 48 59 52 35 41
200 MB DIV -23 -32 -31 -9 -13 -4 -34 -2 26 35 10 4 25
700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 1 2 6 2 0 8 13 12 6 11
LAND (KM) 1076 1154 1232 1324 1419 1612 1845 2069 2010 1768 1548 1343 1162
LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.3
LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 125.7 128.0 130.7 133.2 135.6 137.9 140.0 142.0 143.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. -2. 0. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -18. -25. -28. -31. -34. -38. -43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.1 121.5

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.16 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.84 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 821.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.23 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.2% 0.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/15/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#76 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:33 am

Orlene is moving very slowly it seems
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#77 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:42 am

She's very tiny. Small system compared to what she was.
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#78 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:41 pm

Very small, cute hurricane even though it's in the midst of so much dry air. :ggreen:
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Hurricane

#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:46 pm

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
200 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2016

It appears that Orlene is now responding to the very dry
mid-tropospheric environment. The eye is no longer apparent on
visible satellite images, and the CDO is taking on a more ragged
appearance. The advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on a
blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers. Since the
tropical cyclone is expected to continue to move through an
unusually dry air mass, with 700-500 mb relative humidities on the
order of 20-25 percent, weakening should continue during the next
few days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS
model and the intensity model consensus. It is quite possible that
the system will weaken more quickly than shown here, as suggested by
the ECMWF global model prediction.

The initial motion, 260/9 kt, is similar to the previous estimate.
There is not too much change to the previous official track
forecast. A zonally-oriented mid-level ridge should keep Orlene on
a generally westward heading at a somewhat faster forward speed for
the next few days. Later in the forecast period, a mid-level low
near 140W longitude should produce a weakness in the ridge and a
west-northwestward turn at a slower speed. The official track
forecast is just a little bit south of the previous one, and close
to the dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 19.8N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.6N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.4N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.3N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 19.3N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 19.3N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: ORLENE - Post-Tropical

#80 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ORLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...ORLENE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 127.7W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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