WPAC: Tropical Depression Rai

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WPAC: Tropical Depression Rai

#1 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 6:46 pm

Image

91W INVEST 160908 1800 11.0N 126.0E WPAC 15 1010ż
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 9:24 am

Looks like it might get too close to 16W that will take it out to sea between Luzon and Taiwan according to NAVGEM however, CMC beelines for Vietnam on latest run...

EURO also much weaker...TD/TS into Vietnam. GFS nothing. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:44 am

EURO slightly stronger...Peaks at 998 mb :lol: and makes it to Vietnam making landfall at 999 mb...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:47 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.5N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH
CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
101921Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, UNDEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
DIFFLUENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK MOTION
TOWARD VIETNAM WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:47 pm

TXPQ29 KNES 102131
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 10/2030Z

C. 12.0N

D. 113.9E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL/LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES WITH A CENTER LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A LARGE COLD
OVERCAST. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET AND
PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON THE MET...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LLCC
LOCATION. EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND A 1851Z AMSUB PASS SUGGEST A LLCC HAS
FORMED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MICHAEL
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#6 Postby kala » Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:42 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 12.6N 114.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 14.0N 113.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 11, 2016 8:58 am

Looks like something that could be classified to me.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:33 am

Yeah, I'd say it's time to classify.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:10 pm

Image

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 115.0E TO 14.7N 109.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 114.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 113.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 114.0E, APPROXIMATELY
445 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111400Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DIFFLUENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
MODERATE TO STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD VIETNAM WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:48 pm

19W NINETEEN 160911 1800 12.9N 113.2E WPAC

Upgraded to 19W.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:36 am

Image

WDPN34 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF A
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. A 112354Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD, DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED
ON THE MSI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, HEDGED
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, BASED ON THE WELL
ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. TD 19W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR 19W AND
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 24 AND TO TRACK INLAND AND
DISSIPATE OVER VIETNAM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TD 19W WILL INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:08 am

WDPN34 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS MOVED OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEPER CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. A 120233Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION SPARSELY SCATTERED AROUND THE LLCC, AND THE CORRESPONDING
120233Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS. TD 19W CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD MOTION.
B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. GIVEN THAT THE LLCC HAS ACCELERATED
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, LANDFALL IN VIETNAM IS LIKELY WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND.
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:51 pm

TD 19W on top...Ian in the bottom.

Both with dvoraks of 2.0.

Highest CI# for 19W was 45 knots. Ian at 35 knots.

Centre of 19W is closer to the deepest convection whereas Ian's is far removed from it.

19W is more better organized too.

Likely a missed TS.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:01 pm

Be careful with the 19W and Ian comparison. ASCAT actually hit both around the same time and found TS winds in Ian, but not in 19W.

Image

Image

19W has organized since that pass, so it is still possible for it to become classified as a TS and given the name Rai. 18Z is probably its last shot though.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Rai

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:09 pm

Given the name Rai.

Image

TS 1615 (Rai)
Issued at 19:00 UTC, 12 September 2016

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 12 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20' (15.3°)
E109°05' (109.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°05' (16.1°)
E106°30' (106.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 13 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N16°25' (16.4°)
E104°05' (104.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:39 pm

WTPN34 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (RAI) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 108.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 108.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.9N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 108.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (RAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM THAT HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER
CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND
SUPPORTED BY A PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A 121425Z ASCAT BULLSEYE THAT
SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FULLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 16W (MERANTI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (MALAKAS) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#17 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:51 pm

Not a fan of JTWC failing to upgrade. Gotta go with JMA's handling of Rai here.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Rai

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:39 pm

Can we get the thread title changed so it's clear that the name was used?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Rai

#19 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:34 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Can we get the thread title changed so it's clear that the name was used?


Focused too much on Meranti forgot to update. :lol:
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