ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:03 pm

AL, 94, 2016090806, , BEST, 0, 105N, 285W, 20, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 94, 2016090812, , BEST, 0, 107N, 302W, 20, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 94, 2016090818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 324W, 20, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 94, 2016090900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 346W, 20, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Thread al Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118268

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ATL: IAN - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:05 pm

Only models here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:04 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby Medtronic15 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:25 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:00 pm

models calling it fish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:12 pm

floridasun78 wrote:models calling it fish

They're probably right (insofar as the Lesser Antilles are concerned). It would still be prudent to keep an eye on it though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:39 pm

lol...up up and away. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:37 pm

abajan wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:models calling it fish

They're probably right (insofar as the Lesser Antilles are concerned). It would still be prudent to keep an eye on it though.

Right Abajan. We should not let our guard down and continue to monitor it ... in case of.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:39 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 082350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016


A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic with
axis extending from 18N33W to 06N33W, moving west near 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scatterometer data depicts a weak low-level cyclonic circulation
trying to develop in the vicinity of this wave with center along
35W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N-16N
between 28W-40W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby Darvince » Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:31 am

Possible Gaston redux?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:44 am

At 40W and already a decent roll on MIMIC-TPW
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

A 0.5C warm core
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 6_TANO.GIF

Its pushing dry air out of its way and in the clear with SAL
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

This may be something when it gets to about 60W and the SW side of the ULL which currently is at 25N 47W
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:13 am

Most models show a track following in Gaston's footsteps. Although this one is travelling more south than the invest which formed Gaston, could be more of a threat to the Leewards.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:13 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about 800
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
westward-moving tropical wave. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form while this system moves west-northwestward and
northwestward into the central Atlantic by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent ...

Forecaster Brennan

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:44 am

94L is looking good early in this morning. It sure looks to me to my untrained eyes that a. CDO is trying to moist develop with this cyclone and satellite presentation signature suggests to me it may be developing very quickly.

This system has a very large and moist area which takes up.a good portion of the tropical Eastern Atlantic. I think 94L is well on its way to becoming a significant tropical cyclone, quite possibly becoming a major tropical cyclone imo down the road. It seems to want lto follow in Gaston"s footsteps for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 09, 2016 5:54 am

northjaxpro wrote:94L is looking good early in this morning. It sure looks to me to my untrained eyes that a. CDO is trying to moist develop with this cyclone and satellite presentation signature suggests to me it may be developing very quickly.

This system has a very large and moist area which takes up.a good portion of the tropical Eastern Atantic. I think 94L is well on its way to becoming a significant tropical cyclone, quite possibly becoming a major tropical cyclone imo down the road. It seems to want lto follow in Gaston"s footsteps for sure.

Well, it's certainly a dense looking overcast area, but I don't think it's over the center of circulation which is farther south.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 09, 2016 6:24 am

A low pressure has formed near 11N...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 090958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
558 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to
17N with axis near 37W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. There is a 1010 mb center of low pressure associated with
the wave centered near 11N37W, which is forecast to move WNW to
near 13N41W within the next 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of
mainly favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear and abundant
moisture from the surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft support
scattered showers and tstms from 06N to 17N between 31W and 43W.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the
next several days, and a tropical depression could form while this
system moves WNW into the central Atlantic by early next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 09, 2016 6:27 am

Kazmit_ wrote:Most models show a track following in Gaston's footsteps. Although this one is travelling more south than the invest which formed Gaston, could be more of a threat to the Leewards.

Maybe that's why we should continue to monitor it in case of... as for me as i'm a Leewardian.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2016 6:57 am

Up to 30%-70%

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. This disturbance is
expected to move toward the west-northwest and then northwest over
the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:02 am

Well, that convective mass north of the LLC is a bit deceiving this morning I surely confess this morning lol.. But this system is organizing. We should be seeing Ian from this this weekend, no later than Monday.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:05 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:03 am

Do you have the Best Track Cycloneye? Thanks :)
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