ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Do you have the Best Track Cycloneye? Thanks

AL, 94, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 407W, 25, 1010, WV

[Gustywind]

Do you have the Best Track Cycloneye? Thanks

AL, 94, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 407W, 25, 1010, WV

Nice job Cycloneye thanks

[abajan]

For now, it appears that the rather vigorous looking ULL to its northwest, clearly visible in the WV loop below, will make it recurve safely out to sea, well east of the Lesser Antilles:

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

For now, it appears that the rather vigorous looking ULL to its northwest, clearly visible in the WV loop below, will make it recurve safely out to sea, well east of the Lesser Antilles:

Let's hope that this scenario will recurve it Abajan well east of the Lesser Antilles.

[Emmett_Brown]

Wow, the Atlantic upper air pattern is a disaster... ULL's all over the place...

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Wow, the Atlantic upper air pattern is a disaster... ULL's all over the place...

This is why we are days away from the peak of the season with two struggling weak invests and another weak area of interest not expected to develop.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/774253819207098368

[terrapintransit]

Gone phishin'...

[MaineWeatherNut]

Gone phishin'...

Hasn't gone fishing until it's safely moving east away from land.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave is located a little more than 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better
organized, and conditions are forecast to be favorable for a
tropical depression to form this weekend or early next week. This
disturbance is expected to move toward the west-northwest and then
northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[abajan]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2016090918, , BEST, 0, 124N, 422W, 30, 1010, WV

[RL3AO]

Looks like a typical out to sea pattern.

[abajan]

Looks like a typical out to sea pattern.

http://i.imgur.com/q9eIs10.jpg

Yes, I really doubt this will have any impact on the Antilles, save for some localized heavy afternoon showers and thunderstorms, due to light and variable winds, an abundance of moisture at many levels and daytime heating. We should also expect high sea swells and rip currents.

[Gustywind]

18z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2016090918, , BEST, 0, 124N, 422W, 30, 1010, WV

Continues on a Westerly track... at least for now
AL, 94, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 122N, 407W, 25, 1010, WV

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

09/1745 UTC 12.2N 42.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
09/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.7W T1.0/1.0 94L

[cycloneye]

70%-90%

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past 24
hours in association with a broad area of low pressure located about
1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016



...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N43W to a 1010 mb low
near 12N42W. These features are moving W at 20 kt. The low remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough as a broad monsoonal gyre. At
this time, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-17N between
34W-47W. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. Due to this, the system
has a high chance of tropical development within the next 48
hours.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2016091000, , BEST, 0, 128N, 435W, 30, 1010, DB