ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#41 Postby Medtronic15 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2016091000, , BEST, 0, 128N, 435W, 30, 1010, DB



Well, well!
From SSD

09/1745 UTC 12.2N 42.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
09/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#42 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:11 pm

Medtronic15 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2016091000, , BEST, 0, 128N, 435W, 30, 1010, DB



Well, well!
From SSD

09/1745 UTC 12.2N 42.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
09/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.7W T1.0/1.0 94L


09/2345 UTC 12.6N 43.3W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#43 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:13 pm

i got feeling this be td and ts we watch open sea dont touch any land
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#44 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:57 am

Ensembles are very bullish on 94L and the next wave in EATL:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#45 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 5:16 am

5-Day Outlook Formation Chance Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
during the past few hours in association with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent ...

Forecaster Brennan

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Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#46 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:07 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
13N. The 30-hour forecast consist of a 1008 mb low pressure
center near 16N48W...a possible tropical cyclone. Expect gale-
force winds within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE
semicircle, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 07N to 20N between 36W and 50W, and from 06N to 11N
between 50W and 60W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for additional development It is likely that a
tropical depression may form during this weekend or early next
week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and
then toward the northwest in the central Atlantic Ocean during
the next several days. The chance of formation is high.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:40 am

A broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 1000
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although the shower activity
associated with the system has not become any better organized
since yesterday, conditions are favorable for a tropical depression
to form by early next week while this disturbance moves toward the
west-northwest and then toward the northwest over the central
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#48 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:44 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:34 am

12z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2016091012, , BEST, 0, 132N, 450W, 25, 1010, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#50 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:48 am

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20160910 1145 13.1 44.9 T1.0/1.5 94L 94L
20160910 0545 12.7 44.6 T1.5/1.5 94L 94L
20160909 2345 12.6 43.3 T1.5/1.5 94L 94L
20160909 1745 12.2 42.2 T1.0/1.0 94L 94L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#51 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:51 am

So let me get this straight. This thing has a 70/90 percent chance of development and it is heading into a high shear environment? How can that be? That upper low near 28N 48W is heading west-southwestward

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#52 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:57 am

TXNT28 KNES 101203
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 10/1145Z

C. 13.1N

D. 44.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING WRAPS .25 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#53 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:08 am

'CaneFreak wrote:So let me get this straight. This thing has a 70/90 percent chance of development and it is heading into a high shear environment? How can that be? That upper low near 28N 48W is heading west-southwestward

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF


The atmosphere ahead of 94L isn't static, so the shear pattern is constantly changing. 94L will continue to interact with the upper low, but the low may act to enhance outflow over 94L if it stays far enough away. It's a delicate balance, and certainly not an ideal situation for development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:18 am

And look how it looks with the LLC exposed.We are in the peak day of the season and this is what we have in MDR with the best candidate to develop from the other areas.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#55 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 10, 2016 8:19 am

Agreed. The point was the trough in the central Atlantic is getting deeper and sharper as the high moves off the Northeastern US. I think that the development chances are just a bit too high right now in my opinion. Not bashing NHC by any means. Those guys do an excellent job. Maybe it will stay far enough away to have little impact. Who knows. But there is one thing about it. This wave looks really good right now structurally. It is very well stacked and has a strong low level and mid level circulation with it. Just needs some convection.

wxman57 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:So let me get this straight. This thing has a 70/90 percent chance of development and it is heading into a high shear environment? How can that be? That upper low near 28N 48W is heading west-southwestward

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF


The atmosphere ahead of 94L isn't static, so the shear pattern is constantly changing. 94L will continue to interact with the upper low, but the low may act to enhance outflow over 94L if it stays far enough away. It's a delicate balance, and certainly not an ideal situation for development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#56 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 10:57 am

The center of circulation can clearly be seen to be traveling in a northwesterly direction in the latest visible loop:

Image

(It's located near 13.6N 45.6W in the final frame.)

Somehow, even though convection is on the increase, 94L doesn't look as impressive as it did a few hours ago, and I wouldn't be surprised if the 2-day outlook were to be dropped to 60% in the next TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#57 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 10, 2016 11:31 am

abajan wrote:The center of circulation can clearly be seen to be traveling in a northwesterly direction in the latest visible loop:

Image

(It's located near 13.6N 45.6W in the final frame.)

Somehow, even though convection is on the increase, 94L doesn't look as impressive as it did a few hours ago, and I wouldn't be surprised if the 2-day outlook were to be dropped to 60% in the next TWO.

Agree. IMO (humble) that even may be the story of this season of most of these Invests: seductive that at the beginning and much more disappointing after :cheesy:. Whereas , let's continue to monitor as usual.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 12:34 pm

A broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles has been moving slowly toward the
west-northwest. The circulation appears to be better defined today,
but the thunderstorm activity near the center remains poorly
organized. Conditions are still very favorable for a tropical
depression to form by Sunday or Monday while this disturbance moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the central Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#59 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 10, 2016 12:37 pm

Avila goes with "very favorable" :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#60 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 12:51 pm

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