ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#61 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 10, 2016 1:09 pm

Such a long paragraph related to 94L... :darrow:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical wave extends from 13N45W to 21N44W moving W at 15 kt. A
1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis
that remains embedded within the Monsoon Trough as part of a
broad monsoonal gyre. Unorganized widely scattered moderate
convection is from 08N-20N between 37W-50W. In addition...
developing near gale to gale force winds are expected within
24-36 hours as the low moves W-NW and generates a strengthened
pressure gradient against surface ridging across the central Atlc
to the north. Strongest winds are anticipated within the northern
semicircle through Sunday morning as the low continues to organize
and the overall environment becomes favorable for tropical cyclone
development by early next week. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 2:20 pm

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942016 09/10/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 49 56 62 60 63 62 63
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 49 56 62 60 63 62 63
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 41 43 44 45 46 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 8 9 14 15 21 22 30 29 23 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 0 1 4 2 9 8 4 3 2 3
SHEAR DIR 53 96 200 253 247 233 196 211 187 200 183 208 213
SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.8 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 135 136 138 136 141 149 153 140 132 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 131 129 130 133 128 128 135 140 123 112 109
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 68 67 61 57 52 49 51 56 52 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 19 21 24 27 25 28 28 31
850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 66 61 57 43 36 41 46 36 57 22 23
200 MB DIV 96 107 97 78 80 35 57 53 24 3 61 22 79
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 11 17 17 16 6 3 14
LAND (KM) 1223 1251 1292 1334 1376 1474 1530 1472 1430 1475 1655 1497 1439
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 45.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 11 10 11 14 13 10 11 14 13 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 21 18 19 19 24 33 21 49 25 26 4 12 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -5. -9. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 7. 11. 10. 12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 24. 31. 37. 35. 38. 37. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 45.6

** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.87 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.42 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.56 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 1.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 22.8% 11.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2%
Logistic: 5.1% 31.6% 12.8% 3.8% 0.0% 7.0% 4.1%
Bayesian: 1.5% 8.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
Consensus: 4.2% 21.0% 9.2% 4.6% 0.0% 2.4% 7.2%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/10/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/10/2016 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 38 42 49 56 62 60 63 62 63
18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 38 45 52 58 56 59 58 59
12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 32 39 46 52 50 53 52 53
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 29 36 42 40 43 42 43
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:34 pm

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving slowly northwestward. Satellite imagery
indicates that the circulation has become better defined today, but
the associated thunderstorm has not become any better organized in
the past few hours. Conditions are still favorable for a tropical
depression to form by during the next day or two while this
disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#64 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:39 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#65 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 10, 2016 6:51 pm

This reminds me of the monsoonal appearance of some W Pacific systems.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#66 Postby Gustywind » Sat Sep 10, 2016 7:16 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016



...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical wave extends from 22N45W to a 1009 mb low near 14N46W
moving west-northwest near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. The low
remains embedded within the monsoon trough. Gale force winds are
expected Sunday morning northeast of the low center. Please see
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. The circulation with
this system appears to be better defined today, but the
thunderstorm activity near the center remains poorly organized.
There is a high chance of tropical development over the next 48
hours. Please see the latest NWS Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
over a broad area from 10N-16N between 39W-54W and from 16N-20N
between 38W-44W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#67 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:13 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated in
association with a low pressure system located about 975 miles east
of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
today or Monday while this disturbance moves northwestward to north-
northwestward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent ...

Forecaster Kimberlain

Image

On the IR loop, it already seems to be moving to the north to me:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:31 am

Down to 70%-80%

A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers, but
it currently has limited thunderstorm activity near the center of
circulation. However, a tropical depression is still likely to
form later today or on Monday before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. The low is expected to move
northwestward or north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#69 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:40 am

Not sure this will develop. Shear quite a bit too strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:15 am

Shear,shear,shear...................



https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/774940467125448705
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#71 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:28 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 21N
southward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
15N. The 06-hour forecast consists of a 1009 mb low pressure
center near 17N 47.5W...a possible tropical cyclone. Expect gale-
force winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet,
from 60 nm to 240 nm in the northern quadrant of the low center.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong from 06N to 22N between 40W and 55W.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development. It is
likely that a tropical depression may form later today or on
Monday.
This feature is forecast to move northwestward to north-
northwestward in the central Atlantic Ocean. The chance of
formation through 48 hours is high.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#72 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:42 am

94 L recap from SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/1145 UTC 15.5N 47.0W T1.0/1.0 94L
11/0545 UTC 15.3N 46.1W T1.0/1.0 94L
10/2345 UTC 14.2N 45.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
10/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.4W TOO WEAK 94L
10/1145 UTC 13.1N 44.9W T1.0/1.5 94L
10/0545 UTC 12.7N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 94L
09/2345 UTC 12.6N 43.3W T1.5/1.5 94L
09/1745 UTC 12.2N 42.2W T1.0/1.0 94L
09/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.7W T1.0/1.0 94L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#73 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:51 am

Looks like a somewhat sheared TD this morning. Should be a TS by tomorrow. Satellite loop indicates it's already moving NW-NNW. No threat to any land areas. Don't know if it'll make it to hurricane strength given the shear it will be dealing with. It could find a small area of lower shear, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#74 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 8:29 am

Image

Might threaten the Azores down the road.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#75 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:20 am

Probably no threat to the Azores with high pressure over the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#76 Postby MGC » Sun Sep 11, 2016 11:45 am

57 is all over this like gravy on biscuits...ULL to 94L is providing a good bit of shear. Everybody have a good Sunday, Go Saints....I'm off to my 6yo great-granddaughter's birthday party.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#77 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 12:35 pm

A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Shower activity associated with this system has increased slightly,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday
before upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The
low is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#78 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 1:54 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#79 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 11, 2016 2:14 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours. Scattered showers and isolated tstms
are from 10N to 23N between 40W and 51W. Gale force winds are in
the NE quadrant of the low center.Please see the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details. There is a high chance of tropical development
later today or on Monday before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. The low is expected to move NW over
the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. Please see
the latest NWS Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#80 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:14 pm

Some intensity models showing rapid intensification.
Image
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