ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#81 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:16 pm

94L's appearance reminds me of Colin. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#82 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:29 pm

TCFA

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#83 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 3:55 pm

that look more wnw track not nw as before
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#84 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:12 pm

floridasun78 wrote:

that look more wnw track not nw as before


Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#85 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:17 pm

abajan wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:

that look more wnw track not nw as before


Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.

If it remains weak it could.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#86 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:29 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
abajan wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:that look more wnw track not nw as before


Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.

If it remains weak it could.


You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#87 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:44 pm

abajan wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
abajan wrote:
Yeah, but that ain't gonna happen. Well, let's just say it's highly unlikely. One never knows, though.

If it remains weak it could.


You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.

And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#88 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 5:01 pm

Gustywind wrote:
abajan wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:If it remains weak it could.


You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.

And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours


Interesting. I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out, Gusty 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#89 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 11, 2016 5:39 pm

abajan wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
abajan wrote:
You're right. Weather does sometimes throw surprises. And the map does say it's moving WNW.

And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours


Interesting. I missed that. Thanks for pointing it out, Gusty 8-)

Very interresting :roll: . A very strange mistake from the NHC or it really continues on a west motion?! I don't know we will see the next TWD to have a better idea, maybe... :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#90 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 5:42 pm

you think that TCFA got box facing wrong way?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#91 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:07 pm

Prior to the latest convective burst there was a large unfocused wave that was generally drifting west. Once we get some circulation maybe they just move the WNW box? Unless a ridge builds in once the trough is done with 93L still might not have to worry.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#92 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:51 pm

A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.
Shower activity associated with this system has increased and become
a little better organized during the past several hours, and a
tropical depression is likely to form later tonight or on Monday
before upper-level winds become less conducive for development. The
low is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#93 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:58 pm

so TCFA have box pointing wrong way what nhc say 8pm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#94 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:50 pm

If this becomes Ian, glad it will be a fish storm. I really don't want another dangerous I to happen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#95 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 4:41 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite derived wind data indicate that the low pressure system
located about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands is producing an area of gale-force winds, but the center
of circulation is not well defined. The associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to gradually increase and have become a
little better organized during the past several hours. If the
the circulation of the system becomes better defined, a tropical
storm could form later today before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. The low is expected to move
northwestward or north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent ...

Forecaster Cangialosi

Image

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24N46W 19N48W 10N52W.
A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 19N.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within300
nm of the center in the northern semicircle, and from 14N to15N
between 48W and 50W. isolated moderate from 08N to 12Nbetween
50W and 53W. The current high seas forecast consists of gale-
force winds from 20N to 23.5N between 45W and 51W, and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 15 feet. Please read the high
seas forecast, that is listed under MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details. Precipitation that is associated with this system
has increased and become a little better organized during the
past several hours. It is likely that a tropical depression may
form during the early morning hours, or later today on Monday,
before upper level winds become less conducive for development.
The low pressure center is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward about 10 to 15 mph in the central Atlantic
Ocean during the next few days. The chance of formation is high. ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#96 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:48 am

Gustywind wrote:And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours


Whoever wrote that wasn't paying attention to its movement, or he/she made a typo. It's been moving NW for the past 2 days. Close to NNW now. You never know who is writing these discussions or how much care was taken in the analysis.

There's no question - it's heading out to sea to the north. No Caribbean or U.S. threat.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#97 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:52 am

Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with the low pressure system located about 800 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands is becoming better defined. This
disturbance is already producing winds to gale force, and if the
current development trend continues, a tropical storm could form
later today. The system is expected to move northwestward or
north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic Ocean
during the next few days. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#98 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:09 am

Image

We're definitely feeling the effects of its location. It's dead calm here in the southwest of the island and we just had a fairly heavy shower. I'm guessing parts of the island will get afternoon thunderstorms. The same would apply to the other islands in the Lesser Antilles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#99 Postby colbroe » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:16 am

Can anyone explain this 94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-132N-450W.100pc.jpg
Has the tropical wave designated invest 94L been re positioned
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#100 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:22 am

wxman57 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:And the latest TWD says it's moving W! Remember?
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A vigorous tropical wave is in the central Atlantic associated
with a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 16N47W. The wave
extends from 10N to 23N with axis near 47W, moving W at 5 kt
within the last 24 hours


Whoever wrote that wasn't paying attention to its movement, or he/she made a typo. It's been moving NW for the past 2 days. Close to NNW now. You never know who is writing these discussions or how much care was taken in the analysis.

There's no question - it's heading out to sea to the north. No Caribbean or U.S. threat.

Thanks for that clarification :) . That was a big mistake from the NHC. Hopefully this system should not be a concern for any land mass areas. :D
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