ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:45 pm

AL, 95, 2016091200, , BEST, 0, 126N, 152W, 15, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
AL, 95, 2016091206, , BEST, 0, 126N, 162W, 15, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
AL, 95, 2016091212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 172W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
AL, 95, 2016091218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 182W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
AL, 95, 2016091300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 192W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
shower activity. Slow development of this disturbance is possible
during the next several days while the system moves west-
northwestward to westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



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ATL: KARL - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:54 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:06 pm

Bullish. We'll need to wait until this gets more model support.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:07 pm

i saw nhc put x by Africa plus Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 6h6 hours ago

As Tropical Storm Ian moves north, the ECMWF is trending toward a new storm forming behind it late this week: https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#5 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:57 pm

12Z UKMET bullish and takes it west through 7 days:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:01 pm

Waouw, that was a fast and furious Invest. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#7 Postby Steve H. » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:07 pm

This far out in the tropics I go with the medium BAM. To me this is better in the Deep tropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:16 pm

This should be interesting. The westward bend towards the end of the cone is a tad ominous, but it's early days yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:18 pm

abajan wrote:This should be interesting. The westward bend towards the end of the cone is a tad ominous, but it's early days yet.

You said it Abajan! We have a lot of time to see it progresses towards the Central Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby terstorm1012 » Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:36 pm

Plenty of time to watch this one. May it follow Ian on out though!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:29 pm

The BAM models and GFS seem to like a farther west solution because its weaker while the Euro likes a recurve because it bombs this out but looking at things I believe the Euro might be too bullish

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 12, 2016 10:33 pm

This seems to have good vorticity, I believe the GFS might be too bearish while the Euro is too bullish looking at the current satellite pics

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 13, 2016 1:08 am

Looks to hit the weakness left by Ian, Euro is bullish though.

I'd go with west and weak until about 65W
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#14 Postby USTropics » Tue Sep 13, 2016 3:15 am

I can see why this was designated an invest pretty quickly, it has decent ensemble support for development in the next 48 hours. Short-medium term track will be essentially westward. Long term some of the ensembles and all of the operational models (even the GFS with a weak vorticity) have it north of the Leewards. This is pretty far out though, 200+ hours. Lots of times to watch and see how the models react. The trend is towards development though, with most of the operational models (except for the GFS), the HWRF (has two competing vorticities), and the GFDL show some type of development in the next 120 hours.

00z ensemble probability of TC gensis
Image

ECMWF
Image

GFS
Image

CMC
Image

UKMET
Image

HWRF (not sure what to call this run, I'd probably throw it out - poor model for genesis anyways)
Image

GFDL
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:54 am

5-Day Formation Chance Increased to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda. ...

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during
the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent ...

Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

Image

The text doesn't mention "to westward" motion this time.
Last edited by abajan on Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:45 am

They removed the westward shift at the end of the cone. I wonder why?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby O Town » Tue Sep 13, 2016 5:54 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:16 am

Kazmit_ wrote:They removed the westward shift at the end of the cone. I wonder why?

It could be just a difference in opinion between Forecaster Stewart and his colleagues, or it could be that some of the models have shifted north since the 8 PM TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:25 am

abajan wrote:
Kazmit_ wrote:They removed the westward shift at the end of the cone. I wonder why?

It could be just a difference in opinion between Forecaster Stewart and his colleagues, or it could be that some of the models have shifted north since the 8 PM TWO.

Very interresting Abajan! Let's see what will happen with this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:44 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. ...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 12N20W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 11N to 13N between 19W
and 21W, and from 14N to 16N between 21W and 23W.
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