ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#721 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:58 am

hipshot wrote:Is there an invest off the coast of Africa due south of the islands. I see reference to one on NHC site but not here.


It's not an invest yet, what shows on NHC and what is an invest is two different things. Thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118341&start=800
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#722 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 24, 2016 1:47 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Yet again models overdid Karl. :lol: :lol:

If I'm correct, at this position they were forecasting Karl to be at least a category 2.
:cheesy: :cheesy:

But it's good news for Bermuda though that this didn't become as strong as anticipated while it passed them.


On that note, is it me or is there a high bias on intensity forecasts outside the MDR?

edit: So much for this being a bit ACE pump, Cat 2 forecast and it appears it won't even make it to hurricane (as I expected originally.)
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#723 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:16 pm

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

The convective pattern of Karl has become less organized today and
currently resembles a shear pattern, which isn't surprising given
the 35 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over Karl by UW-CIMSS. A
GPM overpass from earlier today showed that the inner-core structure
of the cyclone had degraded, and this was also noted by the last
aircraft flight this morning. The initial intensity remains 55 kt
based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB
and SAB. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to sample
Karl and provide more data on its current intensity and structure.
Karl is expected to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours, but
much of this will be due to baroclinic effects as the cyclone will
be under very high shear and moving over cooler SSTs. The NHC
forecast shows Karl reaching 70 kt at 24 h as a post-tropical
cyclone based on the GFS and ECMWF guidance. Karl should be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north Atlantic by 36
h, as indicated by global model fields.

The initial motion estimate is 055/20. Karl should continue to
accelerate on an east-northeastward to northeastward heading ahead
of a broad deep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed, and the
forward speed is expected to be near 50 kt by 24 hours. The new
NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near
the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 33.6N 61.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 36.4N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 41.9N 45.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#724 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:51 pm

I'm happy with my original prediction of Karl affecting Bermuda while it was still an invest, but it's too bad it didn't manage to reach hurricane intensity. The chances of that happening now are quite low before it becomes extratropical.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#725 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 2:47 am

What's the record for a system that has been active for a long time without reaching hurricane status? Karl is 11 days old now
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#726 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:41 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016

While Karl was producing a large shield of deep convection earlier,
the convective tops have since warmed substantially and decreased in
coverage. The cyclone's cloud pattern resembles a baroclinic leaf,
which is the typical satellite signature of a system that has become
a frontal wave. The leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck,
indicative of cold-air advection, is also encroaching on the
low-level center. Based on these developments and FSU Phase Space
diagrams that already show the cyclone as cold core, Karl is being
declared an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is
held at 60 kt in agreement with earlier Global Hawk sonde data and
the cyclone's rapid translational speed. Global models show Post-
Tropical Karl being absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over
the North Atlantic after about 24 hours.

A series of earlier microwave images showed that the center was
rapidly becoming deformed due to nearly 50 kt of southwesterly
shear. Since this has made finding the location of the low-level
center difficult, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain
055/42. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to accelerate a bit
further toward the northeast and then turn north-northeast before
losing its identity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 39.9N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 52.5N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#727 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 25, 2016 10:45 am

It won't happen but everyone should look at the intensity guidance...one model shows this becoming a 205mph post tropical system. :lol:
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Re: ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#728 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 25, 2016 11:35 am

11 days as a system and couldn't even reach minimal hurricane strength. Absolute MESS!
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Re: ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#729 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:55 pm

SeGaBob wrote:It won't happen but everyone should look at the intensity guidance...one model shows this becoming a 205mph post tropical system. :lol:


:rofl: :rofl: :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen: :lol: :lol:

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#730 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:57 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:It won't happen but everyone should look at the intensity guidance...one model shows this becoming a 205mph post tropical system. :lol:


:rofl: :rofl: :ggreen: :ggreen: :ggreen: :lol: :lol:

Image


And the OCD5 model has it at 140mph so I can say that model has an appropriate name
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