ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#681 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:35 am

TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
800 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

...KARL CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...
...FORECAST TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA EARLY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 64.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.1
North, longitude 64.8 West. Karl has slowed down recently, and is
now moving toward the north-northwest at around 9 mph (15 km/h). An
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the north are expected
today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by tonight or early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass
near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl
could be near hurricane strength as it passes near or east of
Bermuda tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and
are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#682 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:41 am

In just the last three hours, its forward speed has decelerated from 15 mph to 9 mph and its central pressure has dropped from 999 mb to 992 mb. :eek:
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#683 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:06 am

Haven't seen any recent models posted. Thought Karl was supposed to pass a hundred or more miles E of Bermuda. Maybe that has changed? Looks like an obvious W jog on sat imagery. Maybe it will take that "hard right" that I saw forecasted earlier. Otherwise it looks like a gradual turn would bring Karl very near or slightly W of Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#684 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:11 am

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#685 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:13 am

Bermuda is right between the 9's in this frame, with the storm heading NE.

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models

#686 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:16 am

Latest GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models

#687 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:44 am

So the model still has Karl passing just E of Bermuda (although I think its forecast to be closer to Bermuda than earlier runs). Will be interesting to see if future Hurricane Karl actually passes right over or maybe even just W of Bermuda. It can be deceiving, but it looks like it's moved further W in recent hours than was forecast.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#688 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:08 am

stormreader wrote:So the model still has Karl passing just E of Bermuda (although I think its forecast to be closer to Bermuda than earlier runs). Will be interesting to see if future Hurricane Karl actually passes right over or maybe even just W of Bermuda. It can be deceiving, but it looks like it's moved further W in recent hours than was forecast.

Hopefully, it doesn't pass to their NW instead of the SE, because they'll be on the stronger side if it does.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#689 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:07 am

This is really looking good now
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#690 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:48 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS THE CENTER OF KARL A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST...
...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 65.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 65.3 West. Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or to the
east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Karl is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185
km) from the center.

Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure
has decreased to 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight.

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda later today
and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are
expected to increase during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Sullivan/Berg
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#691 Postby JaxGator » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:00 pm

Air Force recon has found that the center is farther west than first thought, meaning Karl is on a NNW heading. It's outer bands are hitting Bermuda now.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#692 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:15 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#693 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:38 pm

Looks like an eye feature in the visible imagery, wonder if recon will find hurricane force winds while it is still west of Bermuda?
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#694 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2016 2:06 pm

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#695 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:25 pm

Besides the last recon fix from the AF plane with what appeared to be a broad LLC which had seemingly jumped ne. the recent NOAA plane continues to show a NNW motion making more likely bermuda will experience the stronger winds.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#696 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 5:22 pm

Convection really firing now:

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#697 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:11 pm

000
URNT12 KWBC 232246
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122016
A. 23/22:15:16Z
B. 30 deg 07 min N
065 deg 33 min W
C. NA
D. 53 kt
E. 327 deg 35 nm
F. 025 deg 69 kt
G. 315 deg 43 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 14 C / 2341 m
J. 19 C / 2433 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.1 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 WI12A KARL OB 17
INTENSE CONVECTION W SEMICIRCLE
SLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT PRESSURE ALTITUDE
MAX FL WIND 69 KT 315 / 43 NM 22:01:42Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 124 / 29 NM FROM FL CNTR


Combined, the data suggests an intensity now of at least 55 kt, maybe 60 kt.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Recon

#698 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:11 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 232309
NOAA3 WI12A KARL HDOB 33 20160923
230000 3027N 06305W 7616 02439 0085 +139 +104 175042 042 028 001 00
230030 3028N 06306W 7615 02441 0086 +139 +105 176043 043 027 001 00
230100 3030N 06308W 7616 02438 0083 +140 +104 177043 043 028 001 00
230130 3032N 06309W 7615 02439 0082 +140 +104 176042 043 027 002 00
230200 3034N 06311W 7615 02436 0079 +142 +103 174043 043 028 002 00
230230 3036N 06313W 7615 02437 0078 +143 +102 172044 044 028 001 00
230300 3038N 06315W 7615 02437 0077 +143 +103 173044 045 029 000 00
230330 3039N 06316W 7615 02436 0077 +142 +101 175045 045 026 002 00
230400 3041N 06318W 7615 02436 0077 +143 +101 173045 045 029 001 00
230430 3043N 06320W 7615 02436 0076 +144 +099 172045 046 031 000 00
230500 3045N 06322W 7615 02434 0075 +143 +101 171046 046 031 000 00
230530 3046N 06323W 7615 02434 0079 +138 +109 167045 046 032 000 00
230600 3048N 06325W 7615 02434 0078 +139 +109 166045 045 028 001 00
230630 3050N 06327W 7616 02433 0073 +143 +105 167045 046 028 002 00
230700 3052N 06329W 7615 02434 0070 +147 +102 166046 046 031 001 00
230730 3053N 06331W 7614 02433 0068 +149 +100 164046 046 030 001 00
230800 3055N 06333W 7615 02432 0068 +148 +101 162046 046 033 001 00
230830 3057N 06334W 7615 02433 0071 +144 +105 162045 045 032 001 00
230900 3059N 06336W 7615 02430 0070 +143 +112 155043 044 031 002 00
230930 3101N 06338W 7614 02432 0067 +148 +101 148042 043 034 001 00
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Re: ATL: KARL - Recon

#699 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:21 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 232319
NOAA3 WI12A KARL HDOB 34 20160923
231000 3102N 06340W 7615 02431 0069 +145 +103 147042 042 031 001 00
231030 3104N 06342W 7615 02430 0068 +145 +102 147041 042 032 001 00
231100 3106N 06343W 7615 02429 0069 +143 +102 146043 043 033 000 00
231130 3108N 06345W 7614 02430 0065 +148 +096 145041 042 034 000 00
231200 3110N 06347W 7614 02431 0065 +148 +097 144041 041 032 001 00
231230 3111N 06349W 7619 02424 0062 +149 +093 142040 041 033 001 03
231300 3110N 06352W 7614 02430 0064 +146 +105 143042 043 027 001 00
231330 3109N 06354W 7614 02427 0061 +148 +100 143044 045 027 001 00
231400 3108N 06356W 7615 02424 0059 +148 +096 141043 044 028 000 00
231430 3107N 06358W 7616 02421 0051 +155 +093 143043 044 028 000 00
231500 3106N 06400W 7616 02418 0045 +158 +088 143046 046 029 000 00
231530 3105N 06402W 7615 02417 0042 +159 +085 141047 047 030 000 00
231600 3104N 06404W 7615 02413 0042 +156 +080 139050 051 029 000 00
231630 3103N 06406W 7615 02411 0039 +156 +085 139051 052 030 001 00
231700 3102N 06408W 7617 02406 0038 +153 +085 137053 054 030 000 00
231730 3101N 06410W 7613 02410 0034 +153 +102 139053 053 031 000 00
231800 3100N 06413W 7614 02405 0030 +154 +111 139052 053 031 000 00
231830 3059N 06415W 7615 02401 0026 +155 +106 142053 053 031 001 00
231900 3058N 06417W 7616 02395 0020 +157 +107 140055 057 033 001 00
231930 3057N 06419W 7615 02394 0015 +157 +113 140055 057 035 002 00
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Re: ATL: KARL - Recon

#700 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:31 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 232329
NOAA3 WI12A KARL HDOB 35 20160923
232000 3056N 06421W 7615 02393 0019 +150 +122 140053 054 036 001 00
232030 3055N 06423W 7615 02388 0013 +150 +132 139053 054 033 000 00
232100 3054N 06425W 7614 02387 0009 +148 //// 139054 055 033 002 01
232130 3053N 06427W 7615 02381 0005 +148 //// 135052 053 037 002 01
232200 3052N 06430W 7620 02374 0002 +149 +147 129051 051 037 002 00
232230 3051N 06432W 7615 02374 9997 +149 +141 128052 053 039 001 00
232300 3049N 06434W 7615 02372 9991 +155 +126 126052 053 037 001 00
232330 3048N 06436W 7615 02369 9993 +150 +130 126049 051 038 002 00
232400 3047N 06439W 7615 02368 9992 +148 +136 129047 048 036 002 00
232430 3046N 06441W 7614 02366 9991 +145 +138 131043 043 036 001 00
232500 3045N 06443W 7615 02362 9986 +147 +135 130041 042 038 001 00
232530 3044N 06445W 7615 02357 9979 +150 +134 129038 039 035 001 00
232600 3043N 06447W 7615 02354 9973 +152 +136 127035 036 034 001 00
232630 3042N 06449W 7615 02353 9964 +160 +128 131032 032 030 001 00
232700 3041N 06451W 7616 02348 9961 +162 +127 128029 030 031 001 00
232730 3040N 06453W 7616 02345 9953 +167 +120 127028 029 031 001 00
232800 3039N 06456W 7615 02347 9942 +180 +109 126025 025 031 001 00
232830 3038N 06458W 7615 02343 9930 +191 +101 117024 026 032 001 00
232900 3037N 06500W 7615 02342 9925 +194 +102 111028 028 033 000 00
232930 3036N 06502W 7615 02338 9922 +195 +097 109028 029 031 000 00
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