ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#701 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:35 pm

Image
I agree that convection is firing, but I don't think the overall appearance and structure is as impressive as it was this morning. We'll see if it makes minimal hurricane strength, or not.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#702 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:47 pm

Some of the models are predicting 80 knot+ peak winds at Karls closest approach to Bermuda.
The hurricane strength wind field won't extend out very far on the weak side of the storm.
I would probably post hurricane warnings to be on the safe side.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Recon

#703 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:55 pm

URNT15 KWBC 232349
NOAA3 WI12A KARL HDOB 37 20160923
234000 3001N 06518W 7588 02358 9913 +187 +123 273017 019 012 001 00
234030 3000N 06519W 7563 02386 9911 +187 +120 241023 027 014 001 00
234100 2958N 06521W 7561 02389 9904 +198 +108 235026 030 016 002 00
234130 2957N 06522W 7572 02380 9917 +183 +131 247027 029 020 002 00
234200 2956N 06524W 7581 02372 9923 +179 +139 258022 023 032 004 00
234230 2954N 06525W 7583 02373 9940 +160 +148 266023 026 046 002 00
234300 2952N 06526W 7560 02400 9940 +162 +140 269033 040 054 001 00
234330 2951N 06527W 7580 02379 9939 +167 +137 273048 049 056 002 00
234400 2949N 06528W 7571 02392 9948 +162 +135 273054 056 053 001 00
234430 2947N 06528W 7583 02388 9963 +158 +136 278059 060 054 002 00
234500 2945N 06529W 7590 02386 9971 +159 +128 276058 061 057 001 00
234530 2944N 06530W 7580 02407 9977 +157 +131 280062 063 055 001 00
234600 2942N 06531W 7592 02398 9996 +148 +125 285067 071 051 001 00
234630 2940N 06531W 7584 02413 0010 +140 +125 288064 067 048 001 00
234700 2938N 06532W 7607 02389 0009 +143 +121 286054 055 047 000 03
234730 2937N 06534W 7619 02381 0017 +143 +104 287054 055 038 000 00
234800 2937N 06536W 7625 02377 0020 +147 +094 288054 055 036 001 00
234830 2936N 06537W 7610 02393 0027 +139 +097 292052 055 038 001 00
234900 2935N 06539W 7622 02384 0017 +154 +089 285052 054 036 001 00
234930 2934N 06541W 7620 02391 0025 +150 +089 289051 053 036 000 00

71 kt FL, 57 kt SFMR. Close to hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Recon

#704 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:03 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 232359
NOAA3 WI12A KARL HDOB 38 20160923
235000 2933N 06542W 7620 02393 0039 +139 +091 297053 053 034 001 00
235030 2932N 06544W 7621 02392 0039 +139 +091 298053 053 034 001 00
235100 2931N 06546W 7594 02422 0040 +136 +091 298053 053 033 001 00
235130 2931N 06548W 7594 02423 0038 +140 +090 299051 052 033 001 00
235200 2930N 06549W 7598 02423 0050 +133 +091 297048 049 031 001 00
235230 2929N 06551W 7614 02408 0055 +130 +095 298047 049 032 001 00
235300 2928N 06553W 7622 02399 0057 +129 +118 302049 051 033 001 00
235330 2927N 06555W 7614 02412 0062 +128 +097 300046 049 031 002 00
235400 2926N 06556W 7638 02386 0066 +128 +093 303049 050 033 001 00
235430 2925N 06558W 7639 02389 0068 +132 +088 304048 049 032 001 00
235500 2924N 06600W 7640 02388 0072 +128 +087 307049 050 027 001 00
235530 2924N 06602W 7623 02412 0072 +131 +081 304049 051 023 001 00
235600 2923N 06604W 7627 02404 0074 +133 +077 303049 051 027 001 00
235630 2922N 06606W 7632 02402 0076 +130 +080 306052 053 029 001 00
235700 2921N 06607W 7633 02403 0081 +127 +084 307051 053 031 000 00
235730 2920N 06609W 7645 02393 0082 +130 +083 309051 051 028 002 00
235800 2919N 06611W 7656 02384 0082 +133 +079 311051 051 026 001 00
235830 2918N 06613W 7659 02379 0079 +137 +076 314050 051 027 001 00
235900 2917N 06615W 7649 02393 0079 +141 +074 316051 051 026 000 00
235930 2916N 06617W 7646 02398 0084 +138 +075 317051 051 025 000 00
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Re: ATL: KARL - Recon

#705 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:13 pm

000
URNT12 KWBC 232356 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122016
A. 23/23:36:59Z
B. 30 deg 13 min N
065 deg 18 min W
C. NA
D. 39 kt
E. 045 deg 50 nm
F. 141 deg 57 kt
G. 049 deg 67 nm
H. EXTRAP 990 mb
I. 16 C / 2343 m
J. 21 C / 2376 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / NA
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 WI12A KARL OB 24 CCA
SLP EXTRAP FROM 7800 FT PRESSURE ALTITUDE
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 71 KT 200 / 34 NM 23:46:09Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 347 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: KARL - Recon

#706 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:14 pm

URNT15 KWBC 240009
NOAA3 WI12A KARL HDOB 39 20160924
000000 2915N 06618W 7647 02397 0086 +138 +078 316048 049 023 001 00
000030 2914N 06620W 7653 02395 0091 +136 +081 317047 048 024 001 00
000100 2914N 06622W 7651 02400 0093 +132 +107 315043 045 026 001 00
000130 2913N 06624W 7648 02403 0096 +128 +119 313042 043 026 000 00
000200 2912N 06626W 7654 02398 0092 +136 +102 317043 043 024 001 00
000230 2911N 06628W 7653 02401 0094 +137 +093 320042 042 022 000 00
000300 2910N 06630W 7653 02403 0100 +134 +083 321042 042 021 000 00
000330 2909N 06632W 7653 02403 0101 +134 +089 321041 042 019 001 00
000400 2908N 06634W 7653 02407 0104 +130 +115 316038 038 018 000 00
000430 2907N 06636W 7653 02407 0106 +129 +123 317036 037 011 001 00
000500 2906N 06638W 7653 02408 0106 +133 +107 315038 038 014 001 00
000530 2905N 06640W 7653 02410 0107 +136 +078 316036 036 014 001 00
000600 2904N 06642W 7652 02413 0107 +137 +076 314035 036 013 000 00
000630 2903N 06643W 7653 02412 0108 +137 +077 317035 036 012 000 00
000700 2902N 06645W 7595 02476 0109 +134 +086 315034 034 011 000 03
000730 2900N 06646W 7324 02789 0105 +123 +076 318034 035 015 000 03
000800 2857N 06645W 7017 03146 0107 +097 +072 316035 036 013 000 00
000830 2855N 06644W 6820 03383 0103 +087 +054 307035 036 012 000 00
000900 2853N 06644W 6592 03665 0103 +074 +006 306034 035 012 000 00
000930 2850N 06643W 6353 03965 0099 +060 -073 303033 034 014 000 00

Mission over.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#707 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:02 pm

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#708 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:05 pm

TXNT29 KNES 240025
TCSNTL

A. 12L (KARL)

B. 23/2345Z

C. 30.3N

D. 65.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THE LLCC IS 1/3 DEGREES INTO A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET IS A 4.0 BASED ON RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. THE PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON THE MET...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LLCC POSITION UNDER THE OVERCAST.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

23/1905Z 29.4N 65.2W AMSU
23/2143Z 29.9N 65.1W SSMIS


...MICHAEL
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#709 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:06 pm

Earlier Recon data probably suggests the intensity is around 60 kt right now.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#710 Postby JaxGator » Fri Sep 23, 2016 9:26 pm

Karl is looking really good on sat imagery and if you look at Bermuda's radar, you can see a big curved band SW of the Island. Plus it's been pretty windy there throughout the day as Karl approaches per the port web cam. It's going to be rough tonight and tomorrow.
Last edited by JaxGator on Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#711 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:00 pm

Bermuda radar showing either a mid-level eye, or that the mid and low-level centers are aligning.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#712 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:04 pm

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016

A few hours ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported
flight-level winds of 71 kt at 7800 ft about 30 n mi to the
southwest of the center, along with SFMR surface wind estimates of
near 55 kt. The minimum central pressure at the time was near 990
mb. Since then, the cyclone has gotten better organized, with
radar data from Bermuda showing a strong convective band west and
northwest of the center. One caveat to the increased organization
is that the center apparent in both radar and microwave imagery may
be a little to the northwest of the surface center. Based on the
earlier aircraft data, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt, and
this could be a little conservative.

Karl is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures of between
29-30C for the next 12-24 hours or so in an environment of moderate
vertical wind shear. This should allow the cyclone to strengthen
to a hurricane in about 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should
undergo extratropical transition as it merges with the cold front,
and this should be complete by 48 hours. The cyclone is likely to
be absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72 hours. The
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, but it
lies a little below the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The initial motion is 020/11. Karl is about to enter strong
southwesterly flow in advance of a deep-layer trough and associated
surface cold front moving eastward from the northeastern United
States. This should result in a turn toward the northeast during
the next several hours and an increase in forward speed. The new
track forecast has changed little from the previous forecast, and
calls for Karl to make its closest approach to Bermuda during the
next 12 hours and then move rapidly away from the island. Overall,
the forecast track is near the center of the tightly clustered
guidance.

The wind radii have been revised based on a recent scatterometer
overpass and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 30.8N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 32.5N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 35.5N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 39.5N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 45.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models

#713 Postby SouthernBreeze » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:36 am

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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#714 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:52 am

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning
indicate that Karl has made the much anticipated turn toward the
northeast, and that the center has also reached its closest point of
approach to Bermuda. The strongest 825-mb flight-level wind measured
thus far has been 66 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind measured
has been 49 kt. The central pressure of 994 mb is based on a
recent dropsonde report. An earlier dropsonde report indicated that
the flight-level center was tilted to the northeast of the surface
center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is being
maintained at 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 035/15 kt. Karl is now coming under
the influence of deep southwesterly steering flow in advance of an
approaching strong mid-latitude trough and surface cold front. This
flow pattern should keep Karl moving northeastward away from Bermuda
and steadily increase its forward speed to 40-45 kt by 36-48 hours.
The new forecast track is similar to but slightly to the left of the
of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the
tightly clustered track guidance.

Karl appears to have entrained some dry air in the mid- and low-
levels of the atmosphere based on reconnaissance data. However, the
cyclone is forecast to remain over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the
next 24 hours or so within an environment of moderate vertical wind
shear. This should allow Karl to strengthen to a hurricane in about
24-36 hours. After that, the cyclone is forecast to undergo
extratropical transition as it merges with the cold front, and this
should be complete by 48 hours, if not sooner. The cyclone is
expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72
hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies close to the consensus model IVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 31.7N 64.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 33.5N 61.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 36.7N 54.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 41.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 47.6N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#715 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:24 am

Surface observations in Bermuda are showing peak winds of only 30 to 40 mph with the surface pressure dropping to 29.55 as Karl passed.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#716 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:14 am

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#717 Postby stormreader » Sat Sep 24, 2016 9:04 am

Nimbus wrote:Surface observations in Bermuda are showing peak winds of only 30 to 40 mph with the surface pressure dropping to 29.55 as Karl passed.

Not surprised. Karl looked pretty good yesterday morning, but as the day wore on the wind field became much less symmetrically really and it became more difficult to pinpoint the center. Looking at the loop, It really looked sloppy as it made its pass by Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#718 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2016 9:43 am

TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

Data from the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission into Karl
earlier this morning found peak flight-level winds of 63 kt at 8,000
ft and a peak SFMR wind of 47 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, but this could be a
little generous. The latest minimum central pressure based on a
dropsonde from the aircraft is 994 mb. Karl is still expected to
strengthen, but it seems likely that this will be at least partly
due to baroclinic effects, as the global models shows Karl
intensifying while the shear increases to over 50 kt by 24 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast follows this trend, and keeps Karl as
a 70-kt cyclone with a very large wind field when it becomes
post-tropical in 36 hours. The circulation of Karl should be
absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic
by 48 hours, as shown in the global model solutions.

The aircraft last fixed the center on the southeastern side of the
deep convection, and the initial motion estimate is now 050/16.
Karl should accelerate quickly northeastward ahead of a broad
deep-layer trough moving into the Atlantic until it is absorbed,
with the forward speed expected to reach 50 kt by 36 hours. The new
NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near
the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast of Karl's post-
tropical phase has been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction
Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 32.8N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 34.8N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 38.9N 50.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#719 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 9:55 am

Yet again models overdid Karl. :lol: :lol:

If I'm correct, at this position they were forecasting Karl to be at least a category 2.
:cheesy: :cheesy:

But it's good news for Bermuda though that this didn't become as strong as anticipated while it passed them.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#720 Postby hipshot » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:26 am

Is there an invest off the coast of Africa due south of the islands. I see reference to one on NHC site but not here.
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