ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#621 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:02 am

One of the major factors that has kept Karl from intensifying was that TPW was being cutoff as showing in the MIMIC-TPW product.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

I mentioned this a few days ago.
Obviously, the models do not take this into account.

Anyway, it looks like Karl may gradually reconnect with a "feed" of available moisture in the West Atlantic.
This could contribute to the possibility of a "gradual" increase in organization in the next couple days.
Of course, other factors need to be taken into account which I will explore in further posts.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#622 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:10 am

Judging from Sat and Recon wind-field measurements, IMHO Karl has an elliptical / wave-type of shape with a symmetry axis of SW to NE.
Very possible this could remain due west.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#623 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:14 am

Last AMSU Microwave Sounder Measurements and Analysis at 06Z show no warm core and a strong thermal inversion from the water to about 5km altitude.
It will be hard to break the inversion, so I expect convection to remain limited.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#624 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:17 am

The ULL to Karl's west seems to be filling in and slowly dissipating.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#625 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:36 am

Reading the latest advisory, the NHC is getting very frustrated with this system. The models certainly haven't been good this season.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#626 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:43 am

Is it possible for this to remain weak, a TD or wave, miss the weakness and head towards the Bahamas or should this get picked up by the trough no matter how weak it is?
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#627 Postby MGC » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:03 am

Difficult to tell if Karl has a closed circulation based on first few visible loop. If Karl has degenerated into a wave, I'd expect a more westward track.....MGC
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#628 Postby Macrocane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:05 am

I do believe the recent updates in the models have made them worse or at least have not improved them significantly.
At this pace Karl won't even reach hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#629 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:27 am

GCANE wrote:The ULL to Karl's west seems to be filling in and slowly dissipating.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

It could still come back now that the ULL is leaving, but it's still hard to tell given the unreliability of the models.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#630 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:27 am

Pretty good anti-cyclone / outflow developing with center at about 19N 55W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

With the elliptical LL vort, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect this to reform the LLC SE of the current estimated position.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models

#631 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:35 am

Models now taking Karl on a more broad recurve here.

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#632 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:45 am

GCANE wrote:Pretty good anti-cyclone / outflow developing with center at about 19N 55W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

With the elliptical LL vort, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect this to reform the LLC SE of the current estimated position.


The LLC appears to be near 20.7N/57.5W, not at 55W. That area beneath the red crosshairs on the image below is definitely the very weak LLC. Karl doesn't really qualify as a depression at this point. Still, no threat to the U.S. Only a possible threat to Bermuda.

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#633 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:48 am

wxman57 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Pretty good anti-cyclone / outflow developing with center at about 19N 55W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

With the elliptical LL vort, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect this to reform the LLC SE of the current estimated position.


The LLC appears to be near 20.7N/57.5W, not at 55W. That area beneath the red crosshairs on the image below is definitely the very weak LLC. Karl doesn't really qualify as a depression at this point. Still, no threat to the U.S. Only a possible threat to Bermuda.


I didn't say the LLC was at 55W; I was referring to the anticyclone which is at the upper levels (500mb and higher) which looks to me to be at 55W.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#634 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:51 am

Oh, THAT center. I thought you meant the LLC. Sorry about that.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#635 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:52 am

wxman57 wrote:Oh, THAT center. I thought you meant the LLC. Sorry about that.


No problem - thanks.

Here is a picture to better illustrate the anticyclone.

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#636 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:54 am

wxman57 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Pretty good anti-cyclone / outflow developing with center at about 19N 55W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

With the elliptical LL vort, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect this to reform the LLC SE of the current estimated position.


The LLC appears to be near 20.7N/57.5W, not at 55W. That area beneath the red crosshairs on the image below is definitely the very weak LLC. Karl doesn't really qualify as a depression at this point. Still, no threat to the U.S. Only a possible threat to Bermuda.

http://i65.tinypic.com/900c5l.jpg

So it's not likely that it could miss the trough that will pull it out to sea?
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#637 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:08 am

Kazmit_ wrote:So it's not likely that it could miss the trough that will pull it out to sea?


It's reached the western periphery of the Bermuda High now. There isn't much to drive it westward.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Advisories

#638 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:46 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016

A research flight by the NOAA P3 aircraft earlier this morning had
a difficult time closing off a well-defined center of circulation.
However, we are able to track what looks like a reasonable center
on early-morning visible satellite imagery. Based on the latest
satellite images and the P3 data, it does appear that the center
has wobbled toward the northwest and slowed down a bit. However,
the longer-term 12-hour motion estimate is still west-northwestward,
or 295/8 kt. Most of the deep convection remains displaced well to
the east of the center, but new convection has recently been
developing just to the north and northwest. The initial intensity
is held at 30 kt based on earlier reports from the NOAA P3 and a
1254 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass.

Karl remains located to the south and southwest of a mid-level
high. However, the depression is expected to turn northwestward
later today when it begins to move between the high and a mid- to
upper-level low located near the Carolina coast. Karl should then
turn northward and then accelerate toward the northeast from 48
hours and beyond once it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track guidance remains in generally good agreement
on this scenario, and the main differences appear toward the end of
the forecast period when the ECMWF remains much slower than the
other models. The new official forecast remains very close to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, which did not require any
significant changes from the previous advisory.

The distance between Karl and the upper-level low that has been
adversely affecting it during the past couple of days appears to be
increasing a bit, and the shear vector over the cyclone has become
south-southeasterly. Although the global models continue to
indicate that the shear will decrease over the next few days, they
do not agree on the direction of that shear. In addition, the
models do not agree on how much moisture there will be in the
mid-level environment around the cyclone. As a result, the
intensity forecast is complicated, and confidence is not very high.
For continuity's sake, the updated intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous forecast during the first 3 days, and then
it is a little lower at days 4 and 5 based on the latest guidance.
Karl is expected to become extratropical by day 5, which agrees with
the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.8N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 22.1N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 24.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 25.7N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 27.2N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 31.0N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 36.0N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 44.0N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg/Gallina/Veenhuis
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#639 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:01 am

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#640 Postby stormreader » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:34 am

txwatcher91 wrote:Is it possible for this to remain weak, a TD or wave, miss the weakness and head towards the Bahamas or should this get picked up by the trough no matter how weak it is?


I think most likely scenario is that Karl will get stretched out (even more elongated) feeling the weakness of the trough. You already see that happening now. Look how its coming apart into two or three sections. Most of the T-Storm
activity is likely to get pulled northward toward Bermuda. But you could have something of a disorganized clump left down farther south. Most likely this southern clump will eventually die off. But it may have to be watched if it lingers there.
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