ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#641 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:39 am

stormreader wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Is it possible for this to remain weak, a TD or wave, miss the weakness and head towards the Bahamas or should this get picked up by the trough no matter how weak it is?


I think most likely scenario is that Karl will get stretched out (even more elongated) feeling the weakness of the trough. You already see that happening now. Look how its coming apart into two or three sections. Most of the T-Storm
activity is likely to get pulled northward toward Bermuda. But you could have something of a disorganized clump left down farther south. Most likely this southern clump will eventually die off. But it may have to be watched if it lingers there.

The southern clump that you speak of could become something down the road if it approaches the Bahamas and Florida, and finds better conditions there.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#642 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:48 am

Kazmit_ wrote:
stormreader wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:Is it possible for this to remain weak, a TD or wave, miss the weakness and head towards the Bahamas or should this get picked up by the trough no matter how weak it is?


I think most likely scenario is that Karl will get stretched out (even more elongated) feeling the weakness of the trough. You already see that happening now. Look how its coming apart into two or three sections. Most of the T-Storm
activity is likely to get pulled northward toward Bermuda. But you could have something of a disorganized clump left down farther south. Most likely this southern clump will eventually die off. But it may have to be watched if it lingers there.

The southern clump that you speak of could become something down the road if it approaches the Bahamas and Florida, and finds better conditions there.


I remember seeing the Euro showing a weak vorticity splitting off the south side of Karl and heading west towards the Bahamas. Not sure if they'll happen or not but it is interesting to note.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#643 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:08 am

Well the NHC mentions the models have totally failed in the 5amest advisory. Link below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/al ... .028.shtml?

While true, I can argue the GFS has failed the least. It failed because it was showing a few runs where Karl did eventually become a major but it had a lot of runs the past week keeping Karl weak basically showing Karl alternating between a depression and a wave. I don't know what is wrong with the ECMWF and UKMET models but they need big-time SW upgrades in the off season. It has been a total disaster for these normally reliable models this season.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#644 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:26 pm

The LLC seems to be moving almost NW-NNW over the last few hours.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#645 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:23 pm

The center appears to have moved under the convection. Look out. He's about to go BOOM!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#646 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:42 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:The center appears to have moved under the convection. Look out. He's about to go BOOM!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif


Looks like the cirrus clouds are being pushed away from the center as well, backed up by upper-air recon.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#647 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:15 pm

Karl is finally start to get its act together, may become a significant hurricane on its way out
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#648 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:23 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Karl is finally start to get its act together, may become a significant hurricane on its way out

That would be great. 12 storms and 5 hurricanes up to now will look good. While I doubt this will become a major, it still is possible. Worse news for Bermuda but they take on storms quite well.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#649 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:39 pm

I'm not seeing much of a northward component. Perhaps earlier the center reformed to the NW, but it still looks more westerly to me

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#650 Postby SapphireSea » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:40 pm

Kazmit_ wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Karl is finally start to get its act together, may become a significant hurricane on its way out

That would be great. 12 storms and 5 hurricanes up to now will look good. While I doubt this will become a major, it still is possible. Worse news for Bermuda but they take on storms quite well.


Possibly get its act together. It's new movement should diminish the impact of shear. The strength is beneficial as it becomes more symmetric and the wind radii contracts. Should move too fast for significant surge to build. And not to be taken politically, but Bermuda does do a good job weathering storms. Income levels there of perm residents are very high. Objectively loss of life would be indirect and not a result of stranding in harm's way due to lack of funds which are observed elsewhere. Conversely however, damage totals can be higher, but strict codes and wealth go a long way.

Either way let's see what ACE we get out of this, and how fast it lifts out. I predict further erosion of the Azores high and a sharper east turn.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#651 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:59 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I'm not seeing much of a northward component. Perhaps earlier the center reformed to the NW, but it still looks more westerly to me

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

The northward motion was probably the centre reforming to the northward part of the cyclone. The motion looks WNW to me.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#652 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:26 pm

I don't think that the center has reformed. It was very weak this morning, but its motion has been in line with the current position. Looks like it's moving NW, pretty much as has been forecast. Convection is now partly covering the weak center.

Here are my positions:
1115Z: 20.2N / 57W
1945Z: 22.0N / 58.6W (hard to see the weak LLC with convection building over it now)

That computes to a NW motion (317deg) at 13.5 kts.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#653 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:47 pm

The ULL to that has been rolling west with Karl is finally weakening as evidenced by the high cirrus beginning to expand NW. Might have a run at Cat 1 before it recurves with lower shear.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#654 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:49 pm

Yeah, looks like a better-than-not shot at becoming a hurricane in a few days as it makes the turn NE.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#655 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:49 pm

Newest cone very similar to before but they expect Karl to pass Bermuda as a hurricane again.

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#656 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:20 pm

Karl lookin' pretty like your average post-2012 Atlantic storm; disorganized with the heaviest thunderstorms weighted to one side.

With that said, note that -70-80C cloudtops are firing over the LLC, which may indicate a sign of the long-awaited strengthening trend.

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#657 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:30 pm

I have seen hurricanes struggle at first. Once things improve, they can become very intense.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#658 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 22, 2016 4:56 am

Latest advisory moves Karl closer to Bermuda on the recurve (this means a broader recurve). Closest point to be about 118 miles to the east. They can expect large swells, strong winds, and rain.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#659 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 22, 2016 7:49 am

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#660 Postby CFLHurricane » Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:01 am

The only time I'll be able to use this in six years lol

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