EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:13 pm

EP, 93, 2016091318, , BEST, 0, 125N, 999W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS029, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 93, 2016091400, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1003W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS029, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 93, 2016091406, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1007W, 15, 0, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS029, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, SPAWNINVEST, ep722016 to ep932016,
EP, 93, 2016091412, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1012W, 20, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:42 pm

Shower activity has increased during the past 24 hours in
association with a nearly stationary area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or
early next week while the low begins moving west-northwestward to
northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:40 pm

A nearly stationary low pressure system located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a small
area of disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while
the low begins moving west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel
to the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:47 am

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing some shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend while the low moves west-northwestward
to northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:49 pm

Getting better organised.

Excluding the fact that this could be our next storm to watch, it's interesting to note that 14 or 15 named storms have formed in this basin over a period of just 2½ months. :eek: :eek:

A broad area of low pressure is centered several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. The overall system has become better organized
during the past 24 hours and, since environmental conditions are
becoming more conducive for development, a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend while the low moves west-northwestward
to northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#6 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:46 pm

As with most invests this season, 93E is organising fast. :lol:

A broad area of low pressure, centered several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. The disturbance is gradually becoming better
organized and, since environmental conditions are becoming more
conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward to
northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:50 am

A broad area of low pressure, centered several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form over the weekend or early next week
while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 mph,
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:39 am

16/1200 UTC 10.5N 106.9W T1.0/1.0 93E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:40 am

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This low is expected
to become a tropical depression this weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 mph, parallel to but
a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:15 pm

12z ECMWF bringing this very close to the Golden State before stalling offshore.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2016 6:40 pm

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring in association with
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression on Saturday or Sunday while it moves west-northwestward
to northwestward at 10 mph, parallel to but a few hundred miles
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2016 1:19 pm

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with
the low pressure area located about 375 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico is becoming better organized and that the
circulation is becoming better defined. If current trends
continue, a tropical depression could form later this afternoon or
tonight while this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph a
few hundred miles offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 3:53 pm

Hmmm I thought they would start issuing advisories by now...
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 93E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2016 6:33 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to
show signs of organization. Although satellite data indicate that
the system does not have a well-defined center yet, only a small
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression tonight or on Sunday. This system is expected
to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph offshore of the coast of
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 17, 2016 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

...AND YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 110.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

The broad area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for
several days south of Mexico has finally acquired enough
organization to be classified as a tropical depression with an
initial intensity of 30 kt. Microwave data during the day showed
several swirls rotating around the larger circulation, but during
the past couple of hours, satellite images show that a well defined
center became embedded within the convection, and it is the one NHC
is currently tracking.

The shear is forecast to be light for the next day or so, allowing
the depression to intensify some. After 48 hours, both an increase
of shear and an encounter with cooler waters should result in
weakening as indicated in the NHC forecast.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest
or 305 degrees at 14 kt. The depression is being steered by a
strong subtropical high over northern Mexico. In about 36 hours,
the depression will reach the southwestern edge of the high, and
will likely turn northward with a decrease in forward speed. The
NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.
This track keeps the cyclone well removed from the southwest coast
of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.2N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 28.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 10:04 pm

If I remember correctly, this is the third consecutive weekend a new system has formed in the EPAC. Just goes to show how hyperactive it is and with the 0%/20% future area mentioned in the TWO, I wouldn't be surprised if next weekend were the fourth consecutive weekend.
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:08 am

Why is the NHC forecasting a leftward turn at day 4 and 5 towards the United States? A weak remnant low will likely stall offshore.
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby talkon » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:59 am

We have TS Paine.

EP, 17, 2016091806, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1103W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 40, 1009, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PAINE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:04 am

TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

The system's cloud pattern has very quickly exhibited increased
organization. A relatively long band with very cold-topped
convection wraps in toward the low-level center. The low-level
center appears to be located near the eastern end of this band,
suggesting that some northeasterly shear persists. A Dvorak
classification of T2.5 from SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of
2.8 are used to raise the initial intensity estimate to 35 kt.

The center location and hence the initial motion are more uncertain
than normal, especially with no recent microwave passes and after a
center reformation yesterday. The best estimate is 310/12. Paine
should be steered generally northwestward around the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level high over the Rio Grande Valley during the
next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to
then turn north-northwestward and northward when it encounters a
break in the ridge caused by a cut-off low retrograding offshore the
California coast. The new track forecast is shifted a bit to the
right of the previous one after 12 hours, following the multi-
model consensus.

The shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to reach a relative
minimum today while Paine is still moving over warm waters. This
should allow the cyclone to intensify at near a climatological rate
of one T-number per day during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Southwesterly shear should abruptly increase by late Monday in
association with the cut-off low around the time Paine crosses the
26-deg isotherm. This should bring whatever intensification is
occurring to a halt. Global models show Paine decoupling as the
shear reaches 25-30 kt in 2 to 3 days, while the storm is moving
over 22-24 deg C waters. Paine is thus shown degenerating into a
remnant low in 72 hours, and dissipating before 96 hours. The NHC
is higher than the previous one out to 36 hours and is about the
same after that, close to the multi-model consensus.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine is expected to be
advected into extreme southern California and the Desert Southwest
in a couple of days, which could enhance the potential for unusual
September rains across this region.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.3N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 20.1N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 21.9N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 23.8N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 27.1N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:35 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PAINE EP172016 09/18/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 50 46 38 36 34 33 32
V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 50 46 38 36 34 33 32
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 41 38 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 6 7 10 13 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 57 92 132 181 204 220 239 244 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.9 25.4 24.0 22.6 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 145 139 133 117 102 87 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 68 66 58 51 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 15 15 16 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 21 31 26 21 4 25 7 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 33 45 58 52 36 11 7 14 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -3 6 1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 638 581 557 549 542 495 433 310 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.6 22.4 24.3 26.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.0 113.1 114.1 115.0 116.4 117.2 117.4 117.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 18 16 12 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 15. 11. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 110.8

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.66 3.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.44 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 3.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 22.3% 16.3% 11.5% 9.1% 11.3% 10.0%
Logistic: 4.7% 11.1% 7.5% 3.3% 1.4% 3.1% 1.5%
Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 4.3% 11.8% 8.1% 5.0% 3.5% 4.8% 3.9%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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