EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Hurricane

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:58 pm

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 191742
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

...PAINE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 115.9W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paine
was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 115.9 West. Paine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion
toward the north at a slower rate of forward speed is expected by
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible
today. Steady weakening is then forecast to begin tonight and
continue through Wednesday, and Paine is expected to become a
tropical storm on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with
isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions of
southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Stewart
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Hurricane

#42 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:49 pm

HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
200 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

Visible satellite imagery shows a ragged 20 nm diameter eye
appearing in Paine's central dense overcast. Infrared imagery does
indicate quite vigorous thunderstorms, but with a somewhat
asymmetric structure with the coldest cloud tops only observed in
the western semicircle. The slightly stronger initial intensity of
80 kt is a blend of a 77 kt subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and
a 90 kt value from ADT.

Given that Paine is now traversing sub-26C waters while experiencing
moderate southwesterly vertical shear, one would expect that it has
reached its peak intensity. But given this somewhat surprising
hurricane, this is not guaranteed. As Paine turns toward the north
or north-northeast over the next two days, it will move over even
colder SSTs, through a stable atmosphere, and into higher shear.
Thus the NHC intensity forecast shows a rapid weakening - 35 kt in
24 hours - with Paine becoming a remnant low in 48 hours, or
sooner. This forecast is based upon a blend of the tightly clustered
members of the IVCN intensity consensus technique, and is nearly the
same as that from the previous advisory, despite the higher initial
intensity.

Paine is moving toward the northwest at 14 kt, steered between a
deep-layer ridge to its northeast and an upper-level cut-off-low to
its northwest. The tropical cyclone should recurve to the north in
about a day and then decelerate as it encounters a weak low-level
steering flow near northern Baja California. The NHC track forecast
is between the previous advisory and the TVCN multi-model track
consensus.

A 1658Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that Paine was slightly
larger in its 34 and 50 kt wind radii than previously indicated.
The NHC wind radii forecast is based upon a blend of the larger
climatology/persistence model - DRCL - and the smaller multi-model
consensus technique - RVCN.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or two. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

Even though the official forecast does not have Paine making
landfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough to
the west coast of Baja California that tropical-storm-force winds
are increasingly likely. Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the northwestern Baja
California peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 22.8N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 24.7N 116.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 26.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.8N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 30.1N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Stewart
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Hurricane

#43 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:43 pm

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192349
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
500 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

...PAINE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 116.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paine
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 116.5 West. Paine
is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
turn toward the north at a slower rate of forward speed is expected
by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paine is expected
to approach the northwest coast of the Baja California Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady or rapid weakening is forecast to begin tonight and
Paine is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with
isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions of
southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Hurricane

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:36 pm

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200243
TCDEP2

HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
800 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

Paine is quickly losing organization this evening. A very timely
2334 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass shows that the low- and mid-level
centers are beginning to decouple due to increasingly south-
southwesterly shear. As a result, subjective Dvorak data T-numbers
have started to decrease, and the initial wind speed has been
reduced to 70 kt for this advisory. Paine will be moving over much
cooler SSTs and into a higher shear environment during the next day
or so. This should cause rapid weakening, and Paine is expected to
become a tropical storm by early Tuesday, and degenerate into a
remnant low within 36 hours.

Paine appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate
of 345/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from
before, with the tropical cyclone moving northward, then north-
northeastward between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast
and an upper-level low to its northwest. As Paine weakens and
becomes a shallow system, it should decelerate when it comes
under the influence of weaker low-level flow west of the Baja
California peninsula. The track models are in good agreement,
and the NHC foreast is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or two. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 23.8N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 25.3N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 27.3N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 28.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z 29.6N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:43 am

TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine continues to rapidly lose organization, with a disorganized
area of diminishing deep convection displaced well to the north and
northeast of the estimated low-level center. The current intensity
is set at 50 kt which is a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will continue to move through a very
hostile environment of strong southwesterly shear and SSTs below 22
deg C. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Paine should be
reduced to a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the
north-central Baja California peninsula. Since there is now only a
slight possibility of tropical-storm-force winds reaching the
peninsula, the government of Mexico has downgraded the tropical
storm warning to a watch.

Based on microwave fixes, which showed the low-level center to be
located on the south-southwestern edge of the main cloud mass, the
initial motion estimate is 360/11. Paine or its remnant should
continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone, and ahead of a shortwave trough to its northwest, until
dissipation in a few days. The official track forecast is mainly a
blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or two. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 28.4N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 29.6N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 30.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:41 am

TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Shear and cool waters continue to take a toll on Paine. The cloud
pattern is rapidly losing organization, the the diminishing deep
convection is displaced well northeast of the estimated low-level
center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt
based on the degraded satellite presentation, and this lies between
the latest Dvorak CI and T-numbers from SAB. Rapid weakening is
expected to continue due to more than 20 kt of shear and SSTs
cooling below 22C along the forecast track. Paine should weaken to
a depression by tonight and become a remnant low by 24 hours, before
it reaches the Baja California peninsula. The remnant low is
forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours, in agreement with the
latest global model solutions.

A 0844 UTC AMSR-2 pass from GCOM-W1 was very helpful in locating the
center of Paine, which was a little to the west of previous
estimates. Based on extrapolation from this fix, the initial motion
estimate is due north at 12 kt. Paine should gradually turn north-
northeastward in the next 24 hours as it moves around the
northwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern
United States, and the increasingly shallow cyclone will lose some
forward speed prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a
little to the left of the previous one due to the initial position,
and is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or so. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 26.1N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 27.7N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 29.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:50 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine consists of a well-defined circulation of low-level clouds,
as all of the deep convection dissipated around 10-11Z. The initial
intensity has been set to 30 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Since it is
unlikely that deep convection will return given the continued strong
shear and a track over very cool waters, Paine will likely be
declared a post-tropical remnant low tonight. The remnant low will
slowly spin down during the next day or so and should dissipate over
the Baja California peninsula in 36 to 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 005/13. Paine's track should
gradually bend northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States, and the shallow cyclone will lose some forward speed during
that time. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
one and is again close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or so. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 27.2N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 28.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z 29.7N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 30.9N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

#48 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:45 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine has become a swirl of low clouds that has been without deep
convection for more than 12 hours. Since the cyclone is within
an area of strong southwesterly shear and over very cool SSTs, deep
convection is not likely to return. As a result, the system has
become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on
Paine. The initial intensity of 30 kt is a blend of the various
subjective Dvorak T-numbers. Post-tropical Paine is not expected
to be chronic, since the hostile environment and interaction with
Baja California should gradually relieve Paine of its winds,
resulting in dissipation in about 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt. Now that the remnant
low will be steered by the low-level flow it should turn
north-northeastward, then northeastward with a reduction in
forward speed. The new official forecast is near the consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Deep-layer moisture associated with the remnants of Paine is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or so. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 21/1200Z 29.1N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

#49 Postby bob rulz » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:49 am

Well, I got my wish for tropical moisture to reach Utah. The remnants of Paine combined with an approaching storm system to create chaos across Utah today, with at least 2 confirmed tornadoes, widespread flooding, hail, and wind damage, and most places receiving a minimum of 1 inch so far, some places already over 4 inches (in an area that averages 8-15 inches per year in the valleys). Salt Lake City has avoided the craziness, but it's still raining pretty hard. Not sure exactly how much can be attributed to the remnants of Paine but it certainly enhanced some of the moisture.
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