EPAC: PAINE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3236
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:46 am

Cloud tops are pretty cold. That kind of expanse of -80*C tops is fairly rare in the western hemisphere.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:57 am

TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

An AMSR2 image from 0859 UTC revealed that the low-level center of
Paine was displaced somewhat to the east of the earlier estimated
track, indicative of easterly shear over the system. Paine has a
fairly well-defined curved band, with very cold cloud tops, over the
western semicircle of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, and this value will be used for
the advisory intensity. The dynamical guidance shows a decrease in
shear over the next 24 hours, so Paine is likely to strengthen into
Monday. In around 48 hours, SSTs are expected to drop below 24 deg
C, and this should cause significant weakening, and remnant low
status seems likely by 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, and near or above the model consensus.

Based on the aforementioned microwave image, the track has been
shifted eastward somewhat, and the initial motion estimate is 305/11
kt. Over the next couple of days, Paine should move around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over Texas. The
official forecast track is to the right of the previous one, mainly
due to the eastward relocation of the center, but lies generally to
the left of the model consensus.

Although the cyclone is likely to dissipate before reaching land,
deep-layer moisture associated with Paine is expected to be advected
into extreme southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, which
could enhance the potential for unusual September rains across these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 17.5N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.7N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.7N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 22.9N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 24.9N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 28.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
FireRat
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 475
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: Central NC

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby FireRat » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:11 pm

Looks like a Paine in the butt for the northern Baja.
:lol:
0 likes   
Lightning does strike Twice.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:29 pm

Numbers going up.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2016 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 17:40:18 N Lon : 111:41:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.3mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -55.9C Cloud Region Temp : -58.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.7 degrees
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:51 pm

18/1800 UTC 18.2N 112.4W T3.5/3.5 PAINE -- East Pacific
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:52 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PAINE EP172016 09/18/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 60 63 65 62 56 45 32 27 23 20 18
V (KT) LAND 50 56 60 63 65 62 56 45 32 27 23 20 18
V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 64 64 58 48 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 9 14 18 17 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 0 -2 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 98 139 202 210 214 237 233 252 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.8 24.0 22.6 21.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 138 132 123 103 87 74 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 66 64 54 48 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 16 14 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 27 19 27 43 26 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 54 64 55 35 33 10 23 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 5 16 12 10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 588 563 570 531 504 457 326 258 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.0 19.8 20.9 22.0 24.1 26.0 27.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.4 114.4 115.3 116.2 117.3 117.6 117.6 117.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 10 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 15 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 12. 6. -5. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 112.4

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.36 -0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 29.8% 22.0% 15.9% 13.9% 14.4% 10.6%
Logistic: 18.3% 14.6% 14.8% 9.8% 5.0% 2.2% 0.6%
Bayesian: 6.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 13.8% 15.5% 12.6% 8.6% 6.3% 5.6% 3.7%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172016 PAINE 09/18/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109482
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...PAINE STRENGTHENING...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 112.9W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Paine has strengthened significantly today, with increasingly better
defined convective bands wrapping at least 3/4 of the way around
the circulation. The intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, to
50 kt which is the average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Vertical shear has relaxed, and the tropical cyclone has about 24
hours over warm water. The official intensity forecast now calls
for Paine to become a hurricane within that time frame, in close
agreement with the SHIPS guidance. By tomorrow night, the cyclone
will be encountering SSTs below 24 deg C, so a weakening trend
should be underway by that time. Paine will continue to move over
progressively cooler waters thereafter, and should decay into a
remnant low in about 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate, 310/12 kt, is not much different than
in the earlier advisory. The track forecast philosophy has not
changed. Paine should move along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near Texas for the
next couple of days and remain offshore of the Baja California
peninsula. In 72 hours, the remnant low is forecast to approach
the northern portion of the peninsula, but it should dissipate
before reaching land.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
in a couple of days. This could enhance the rainfall potential in
these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.5N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.8N 114.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 21.9N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 23.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 25.8N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 28.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:50 pm

Wow! 50 knots? :eek:

Chances of this becoming our 11th hurricane are high right now IMO. :eek:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:55 pm

Paine will be lucky to become a hurricane. As it moves over much colder waters over the California Current/EPAC SST gradient and shear increases soon, It will start rapidly weakening by this time tomorrow, and by Tuesday, maybe Wednesday, Paine will be history
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 3:57 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2016 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 18:21:58 N Lon : 112:43:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 994.4mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -62.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:06 pm

Raw T# nearing 4.0

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2016 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 18:46:17 N Lon : 113:14:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 991.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.8 3.8

Center Temp : -63.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 47km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.1 degrees
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:09 pm

Surely has the hurricane look IMO.

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:20 pm

Code: Select all

EP, 17, 201609190000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1920N, 11330W,      , 2,  55, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  AS,  VIM, 3, 3535 /////,      ,   , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.5 PT=3.5 FTBO DT
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:45 pm

EP, 17, 2016091900, , BEST, 0, 190N, 1134W, 55, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 60, 1007, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PAINE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:47 pm

NHC goes with 60 knots, which seems reasonable IMO given the eye like feature present now.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190238
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Paine continues to quickly strengthen this evening. The convective
banding has improved, with a mid-level eye feature now apparent in
recent microwave images. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and objective estimates from
UW/CIMSS have climbed to T3.8 or about 60 kt, which is the basis
for the 60-kt advisory intensity. Paine is expected to remain in a
low shear environment through tomorrow morning, while it remains
over SSTs greater than 26C. This should allow for some additional
strengthening and Paine is forecast to become a hurricane overnight
or early Monday. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast
to move over progressively cooler waters and into an area of
increasing southwesterly shear, which should cause rapid weakening.
Paine is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and
dissipate shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is below
the SHIPS/LGEM statistical guidance, and is closest to the HWRF
model.

The initial motion estimate is 315/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast
to move north-northwestward, then northward around the southwestern
and western portions of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over
northern Mexico. As Paine weakens and become a more shallow
system, it should slow down and then dissipate just west of the Baja
California peninsula in 3 to 4 days. Some of the dynamical models
take a stronger system northeastward into Mexico, but given the
hostile atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions west of the Baja
peninsula, this solution seems unlikely at this time.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
in a couple of days. This could enhance the rainfall potential in
these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 19.5N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 20.9N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 23.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 25.0N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 26.6N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 28.9N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Andrew92
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3241
Age: 33
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:02 pm

Dear Paine,

Your rains are welcome in Arizona. But please don't be a "pain" like Norbert and Odile were two years ago. Or Newton recently in the southeastern part of the state.

Sincerely,

-Andrew92
0 likes   

User avatar
Krit-tonkla
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:28 am

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby Krit-tonkla » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:59 am

Now a hurricane.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190836
TCDEP2

HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
300 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

A subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, ADT intensity
estimates from UW/CIMSS, and the appearance of a faint eye on both
enhanced IR and shortwave IR satellite images indicate that Paine
has become a hurricane. The advisory intensity is set at 65 kt in
agreement with the TAFB estimate. Upper-level outflow is well
established over the western portion of the circulation but is
weak to the east. Even though the vertical shear is expected to
remain low to moderate for the next 24-36 hours, Paine's hurricane
status is likely to be short-lived. The cyclone will begin to
traverse progressively cooler SSTs later today, and water
temperatures will drop below 22 deg C within 36 hours. This should
result in rapid weakening, and Paine is forecast to degenerate into
a remnant low in 48 hours before the center reaches the
north-central Baja California peninsula.

The initial motion estimate continues to be 315/13 kt. Paine is
expected to turn north-northwestward, northward, and eventually
north-northeastward while moving along the western periphery of a
deep-layer anticyclone centered near Texas. The official track
forecast is slightly faster than the previous one but near to, or a
little slower than, the latest multi-model consensus.

The wind radii have been adjusted using data from an ASCAT overpass
at 0430 UTC, which showed a slightly larger system.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
during the next day or two. This could enhance the rainfall
potential in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 20.6N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 22.2N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 24.4N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 26.4N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 28.4N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 30.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist. Any posts I made, unless copied from some official agency, are only my opinion and is unofficial and often exaggerated. Please refer to your official RSMC for official products and warnings.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Hurricane

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:44 am

19/1200 UTC 20.8N 115.1W T4.0/4.0 PAINE -- East Pacific
0 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Mt Pleasant, SC

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Hurricane

#39 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:33 am

Looks like Paine will bring rain to S Cal.
They've been doing the rain dance for a while...
:sprinkler:
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10214
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: PAINE - Hurricane

#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:05 pm

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191449
TCDEP2

HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
800 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

A 1008Z SSMI microwave pass showed that an impressive complete
eyewall structure has developed in Paine. While the eye is not yet
apparent in the standard infrared imagery, a transient eye has been
seen in the shortwave infrared pictures. Subjective Dvorak, ADT,
and AMSU intensity estimates have risen and now range from 65 to 85
kt. A blend of these give an initial intensity of 75 kt.

Despite the very rapid intensification observed in Paine - 40 kt in
24 hours - it is likely that the hurricane is at or very near its
peak intensity. Its forecast track takes it over quite cold water
in just a day at the same time that the southwesterly vertical
shear become moderate to high. Thus the NHC intensity forecast
shows steady weakening until Paine becomes a remnant low in 48
hours or sooner. This forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM
statistical scheme and the GFDL and COAMPS dynamical models, and is
nearly the same as that from the previous advisory, despite the
higher initial intensity.

Paine is moving toward the northwest at 13 kt, as it is being
steered between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast and an
upper-level cut-off-low to its northwest. The tropical
cyclone should recurve to the north in about a day and then
decelerate as it encounters a weak low-level steering flow just west
of northern Baja California. The NHC track forecast is based upon
the tightly clustered members of the TVCN multi-model track
consensus and is slightly faster than the previous advisory.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or two. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

Even though the official forecast does not have Paine making
landfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough
to the west coast of Baja California that tropical-storm-force winds
are possible. Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for portions of the northwestern Baja California
peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 22.0N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 23.7N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 26.1N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 28.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 29.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Stewart
0 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests