ATL: LISA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109498
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:28 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large but
well-defined low pressure system located southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Tuesday before large-scale conditions become less
favorable. Occasional heavy rains and gusty winds associated with
this system should diminish later today over the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17570
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#22 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:38 am

Looks more impressive than Karl this morning. It's at least a depression. NHC is ignoring it for now.

I'm not seeing any west Caribbean or Gulf threat for at least the next couple of weeks. Seems unlikely the NW Gulf will see any hurricane threat for the remainder of the season. The next 2-3 storms may be out in the open Atlantic, like Ian, Karl, and likely Lisa.
1 likes   

JabNOLA
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:00 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#23 Postby JabNOLA » Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:54 am

wxman..... Really "next couple of seasons" ???? Make it so.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109498
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:47 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show signs of organization, and it appears that a
tropical depression could be forming. If this trend continues,
then advisories could be initiated on this system later today or
tonight. Occasional heavy rains and gusty winds associated with
this system should diminish later today over the Cabo Verde Islands
while the low moves westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3991
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#25 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 19, 2016 12:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks more impressive than Karl this morning. It's at least a depression. NHC is ignoring it for now.

I'm not seeing any west Caribbean or Gulf threat for at least the next couple of seasons. Seems unlikely the NW Gulf will see any hurricane threat for the remainder of the season. The next 2-3 storms may be out in the open Atlantic, like Ian, Karl, and likely Lisa.



Wxman, did you mean to say "the next couple of weeks" and not "seasons?" Or is the global pattern change really that drastic?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109498
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#26 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:53 pm

18z Best Track changes to TD 13.

Tropical Depression THIRTEEN
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 19, 2016:


Location: 13.5°N 28.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 260 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17570
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#27 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:59 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks more impressive than Karl this morning. It's at least a depression. NHC is ignoring it for now.

I'm not seeing any west Caribbean or Gulf threat for at least the next couple of seasons. Seems unlikely the NW Gulf will see any hurricane threat for the remainder of the season. The next 2-3 storms may be out in the open Atlantic, like Ian, Karl, and likely Lisa.



Wxman, did you mean to say "the next couple of weeks" and not "seasons?" Or is the global pattern change really that drastic?


Freudian slip. I meant weeks, but probably seasons...

Looks like the NHC has finally upgraded 96L to TD Thirteen. It still looks more impressive than Karl.
0 likes   

hipshot
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#28 Postby hipshot » Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:24 pm

JabNOLA wrote:wxman..... Really "next couple of seasons" ???? Make it so.


I'm pretty sure that is not what he said.
0 likes   

hipshot
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#29 Postby hipshot » Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:25 pm

hipshot wrote:
JabNOLA wrote:wxman..... Really "next couple of seasons" ???? Make it so.


I'm pretty sure that is not what he said.


Oops, guess he did say that.
0 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#30 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:37 pm

we all make mistakes.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17570
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#31 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:43 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:we all make mistakes.


I think I made one once, but I could be mistaken.

In other news, new model guidance for 96L just came out with it called an "Invest" again. It still looks more impressive than Karl...
0 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#32 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:45 pm

so any change in the models?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17570
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#33 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:52 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:so any change in the models?


Nope, Lisa-to-be as much of a fish as a fish can be, and probably pretty weak, too.
0 likes   

emeraldislenc
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 308
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#34 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:12 pm

Do you see any active systems after Karl and 96L?
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3270
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#35 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:23 pm

Even the core clouds had a twist in them at sunset.
Does the NHC have the technology available to initiate this as a TS?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17570
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#36 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:32 pm

Nimbus wrote:Even the core clouds had a twist in them at sunset.
Does the NHC have the technology available to initiate this as a TS?


They would need some evidence to suggest TS winds, like a good ASCAT pass or an observation. Satellite imagery is not conclusive with a borderline TD/TS. Latest ASCAT had a few 30kt winds but nothing stronger. That was 9 1/2 hrs ago, though.
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3991
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#37 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:54 pm

I agree with you Wxman regarding 2016. I'm not expecting anything. With the rough conditions out there, it would be a shock if we got anything of significance to develop that we would have to worry about. I'm ready for Winter, and some big California storms
0 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 597
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

ATL: LISA - Advisories

#38 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:56 pm

WTNT33 KNHC 192052
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 28.6W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 28.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion
toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016

Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and ship observations
indicate that the large low pressure system located southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands has maintained a well-defined circulation and has
developed sufficient organized convection to be considered a
tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on
scatterometer wind data of near 30 kt along with Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The central pressure is based on reports from ship
D5ET2 during is traversal through the center of the cyclone over the
past 12 hours. The depression is a large tropical cyclone with a
wind field that is more than 400 n mi in diameter.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/10 kt, based
primarily on scatterometer and microwave satellite data. The
depression is located along the southern periphery of a large
deep-layer ridge that is foreast to steer the cyclone westward for
the next 24 hours or so, followed by west-northwestward motion
through 120 hours. The official forecast track lies close to the
consensus model TVCN through 96 hours, and then leans toward a blend
of the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models since the GFS dissipates
the cyclone by 120 hours, a scenario that seems premature given the
current large size of the cyclone.

Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt
over the cyclone for the next 48 hours, which favors steady
intensification. However, the mid-level moisture is only expected to
be marginal during that time, with humidity values around 60 percent
or less. The drier air along with the large size of the cyclone are
expected to temper the development process, and this is reflected by
the slower-than-average intensification rate. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows the intensity model IVCN. This forecast is
lower than the SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF models, which brings the
cyclone to near hurricane strength by 72 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.6N 28.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 31.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 16.7N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 17.6N 35.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 19.5N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 21.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 23.5N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109498
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:01 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
abajan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3217
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Rendezvous Hill, Christ Church, Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#40 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:09 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I agree with you Wxman regarding 2016. I'm not expecting anything. With the rough conditions out there, it would be a shock if we got anything of significance to develop that we would have to worry about. I'm ready for Winter, and some big California storms

TD13 may be the last of the Cape Verde portion of the season but the season as a whole is far from over. October has been known to deliver powerful canes.

EDIT: Changed TD6 to TD13.
Last edited by abajan on Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests