ATL: LISA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#41 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:23 pm

abajan wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I agree with you Wxman regarding 2016. I'm not expecting anything. With the rough conditions out there, it would be a shock if we got anything of significance to develop that we would have to worry about. I'm ready for Winter, and some big California storms

TD6 may be the last of the Cape Verde portion of the season but the season as a whole is far from over. October has been known to deliver powerful canes.


Sorry, but I'll believe it when I see it, and I don't believe it. If it was 2005, then I'd believe it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#42 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:34 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
abajan wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I agree with you Wxman regarding 2016. I'm not expecting anything. With the rough conditions out there, it would be a shock if we got anything of significance to develop that we would have to worry about. I'm ready for Winter, and some big California storms

TD6 may be the last of the Cape Verde portion of the season but the season as a whole is far from over. October has been known to deliver powerful canes.


Sorry, but I'll believe it when I see it, and I don't believe it. If it was 2005, then I'd believe it.


The problem here is you're using 2005 to measure every season after. Have you forgotten about Sandy and Joaquin already?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#43 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:00 pm

Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
abajan wrote:TD6 may be the last of the Cape Verde portion of the season but the season as a whole is far from over. October has been known to deliver powerful canes.


Sorry, but I'll believe it when I see it, and I don't believe it. If it was 2005, then I'd believe it.





The problem here is you're using 2005 to measure every season after. Have you forgotten about Sandy and Joaquin already?


Much more shear and much more hostile environment now in the Gulf and Atlantic than when those storms developed. And if you think there is shear and upper level lows now, wait until October gets here
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#44 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:01 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Sorry, but I'll believe it when I see it, and I don't believe it. If it was 2005, then I'd believe it.





The problem here is you're using 2005 to measure every season after. Have you forgotten about Sandy and Joaquin already?


Much more shear and much more hostile environment now in the Gulf and Atlantic than when those storms developed. And if you think there is shear and upper level lows now, wait until October gets here


I remember having this same conversation in 2014, that there would be little to no activity after this point, and then we had Fay and Gonzalo. It's best not to use the now as the absolute determinant of later. And western Caribbean/eastern Gulf tends to be more favorable in October than it is in late September anyway.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#45 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:20 pm

Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Hammy wrote:

The problem here is you're using 2005 to measure every season after. Have you forgotten about Sandy and Joaquin already?


Much more shear and much more hostile environment now in the Gulf and Atlantic than when those storms developed. And if you think there is shear and upper level lows now, wait until October gets here


Fair enough. If I'm wrong I'll be the first to tell you that you were right, and long as you'll also tell me that I was right if you are wrong. My reasoning is based on high levels of shear and upper level lows during "Peak" season. Sure we've had lots of depressions and storms form, but look how much they've struggled just to sustain themselves. But again, if you are right, I'll PM you and give you credit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#46 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:13 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Much more shear and much more hostile environment now in the Gulf and Atlantic than when those storms developed. And if you think there is shear and upper level lows now, wait until October gets here


Fair enough. If I'm wrong I'll be the first to tell you that you were right, and long as you'll also tell me that I was right if you are wrong. My reasoning is based on high levels of shear and upper level lows during "Peak" season. Sure we've had lots of depressions and storms form, but look how much they've struggled just to sustain themselves. But again, if you are right, I'll PM you and give you credit


On the note of the shear, I've been doing some comparisons between previous seasons (as this year was abnormally low in activity during the peak.) 1985 is the flashing red light of sorts--we had Elena (Cat 3 landfall on Sep 2, around the same time we had Hermine's landfall and Gaston's peak this year) and then literally zero tropical storms until Fabian formed on the 17th, and Gloria later on the same day--and Gloria struggled similarly to Karl, finally becoming a hurricane almost a week after forming. 1985 also had two hurricanes in the Gulf later in the season, and a similarly abnormally high EPac season.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#47 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:29 pm

I agree. If things are this bad now just wait a couple more weeks, especially once fronts start reaching the gulf like this weekend. Storms barely surviving now and conditions will only become more and more hostile.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:30 pm

Still TD 13 at 00z Best Track.

AL, 13, 2016092000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 286W, 30, 1007, TD
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#49 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:56 pm

Seems to be holding steady for now, could be a bit of easterly shear. Convection seems to be on the increase though, so this could be upgraded by tomorrow afternoon.

And Cyclone Mike, that seems to be your 2000th post. :D
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:49 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016

The coverage of deep convection associated with the depression has
decreased somewhat during the past several hours, but the
circulation remains well established with several fragmented
curved bands. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
support maintaining the initial wind speed of 30 kt.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt. A weakness in
the subtropical ridge over the east-central Atlantic is expected to
persist for the next several days due to a series of shortwave
troughs moving through the area. As a result, a continued
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same forward
speed is expected throughout the forecast period. The models are in
fair agreement, and the NHC track prediction lies on the left side
of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model.

The environmental conditions for strengthening during the next
several days are mixed. Although the shear is expected to be light
and waters warm during the next couple of days, the atmosphere is
not overly moist in the vicinity of the depression. These
conditions should allow for slow strengthening during the next 48
hours. Beyond that time, however, the system is expected to move
in less favorable conditions of stronger shear, even drier air, and
more marginal SSTs. These conditions should halt strengthening
and induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies
close to the intensity model consensus for the first few days, but
is lower than the consensus at days 4 and 5 given the expected
hostile conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 14.2N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.0N 30.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 16.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 17.2N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.0N 38.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 25.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:42 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression is only slightly better
organized than yesterday, with some broken convective banding over
the northeastern portion of the circulation. Overall, however, the
system is elongated from southwest to northeast. The initial
intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from
both TAFB and SAB. The tropical cyclone is expected to remain in a
low shear environment for the next 48 hours or so, and therefore
some strengthening is forecast during that time frame. Later in
the period, the dynamical environment is likely to become hostile
for strengthening since shear associated with an upper-level trough
is forecast to increase to around 30 kt in 3-4 days. Given this
expected change in the large-scale environment, weakening should
begin in 2-3 days and the system is predicted to revert to tropical
depression status by the end of the forecast period. Although the
dynamical guidance shows some relaxation of the shear at the end of
the period, the current thinking is that by that time the system
will be too disrupted to be able to recover. The official intensity
forecast is close to the LGEM guidance through 72 hours and a little
below it at days 4 and 5.

There is considerable spread in center fixes and the initial motion
is an uncertain 295/8 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge
along 30W-40W is likely to induce a more northwestward track
during the next day or so, followed by a return to a west-
northwestward motion as the ridge rebuilds a bit to the north
of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the system is
forecast to turn back toward the northwest due to another weakness
in the ridge. The official track forecast is somewhat slower and
to the right of the previous one but close to the new dynamical
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 14.4N 29.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.4N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 16.6N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 17.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 18.4N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 23.4N 40.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 26.5N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#52 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:53 am

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LISA OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:55 am

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

The cloud pattern of the cyclone has steadily improved, with long
curved bands having developed in the northern semicircle since the
previous advisory. Although Dvorak satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB were 30 kt at 1200Z, recent UW-CIMSS ADT values have
increased to 35 kt and AMSU intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt.
Therefore the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which
is a compromise of these estimates, making the cyclone the eleventh
named storm of the 2016 hurricane season.

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Lisa is now
moving northwestward or 305/10 kt. Water vapor imagery and
satellite-derived winds indicate that a large mid-latitude trough
extends from near the Canary Islands southwestward into the tropics,
which has created a break in the subtropical ridge along 30W-40W
longitude. Lisa is forecast to move generally northwestward toward
the break in the ridge for the next 4 days, followed by a northward
turn as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of the ridge
axis. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on this
track scenario, and the new NHC forecast track is just a little to
the right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the
more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus
model TVCN.

Lisa has about 48 hours remaining to strengthen while the vertical
wind shear and upper-level outflow pattern remain favorable, and
sea-surface temperatures are above 27 deg C. However, a marginally
moist mid-level environment and the large size of the cyclone are
expected to prevent any rapid strengthening from occuring. After
that time, the atmosphere is expected to become quite hostile,
characterized by southwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and much drier
mid-level air, resulting in steady weakening from 72-120 hours.
Although the dynamical guidance continues to forecast some
relaxation of the shear toward the end of the period, the cyclone
will likely be too degraded to recover. The official intensity
forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 48 hours, and then lies
closer to the LGEM guidance after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.3N 30.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 16.2N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 17.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 18.2N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.1N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 21.7N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 24.5N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 28.3N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#54 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:59 am

Atlantic Basin sure is a quantity or quality basin... :D
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#55 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:22 am

So another Lisa fish.

Lisa is always an open fish, isn't she?

I hope she becomes a hurricane again at least.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#56 Postby JaxGator » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:31 am

Blown Away wrote:Atlantic Basin sure is a quantity or quality basin... :D


Yes, most of this year's storms have been weak but not without impacts and some turned into beautiful hurricanes (two that hit land). 2005 had a lot of quantity storms too since some like to compare to that season and others. Right now, Lisa looks great (and better than Karl atm) with big spril bands noted in the NHC discussion.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#57 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:51 am

HurricaneRyan wrote:... I hope she becomes a hurricane again at least.

Unlikely. At least, according to the latest NHC. But time will tell.
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:51 pm

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

During the past six hours, a central dense overcast (CDO) feature
has developed over and to the east of Lisa's low-level center. The
upper-level outflow has also improved, albeit elongated northeast-
to-southwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
which is a blend of a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35
kt from TAFB, a UW-CIMSS ADT values of T2.9/43 kt, and a 1611Z AMSU
estimate of 44 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt. Lisa has made a jog to the
right of the previous forecast track and model guidance, which is
most likely due to the center reforming closer to the strongest
convection. Other than shifting the forecast track to the right of
the previous advisory track to account for the more eastward initial
position, the forecast rationale remains unchanged. The latest NHC
model guidance continues to indicate a steady northwestward motion
for the next four days toward a break in the subtropical ridge
between 30W-40W longitude. On day 5, Lisa is expected to move
northward as the ridge erodes eastward. The new NHC forecast track
lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope through
day 4, and then follows a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models on day
5 since those models maintain the cyclone longer.

Lisa has another 36 hours or so to strengthen some more before the
large-scale environment becomes very unfavorable, which will be
characterized by southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt,
drier and more stable air, and SSTs less than 27 deg C. It is
possible that Lisa could end up being a little stronger between the
24- and 36-hour forecast periods. By 48 hours, however, steady
weakening is expected to ensue, with Lisa becoming a remnant low
pressure system by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows
the intensity consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 16.4N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 17.2N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 19.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 22.7N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 25.2N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 29.2N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016

Deep convection has increased in coverage near and to the northeast
of the center of Lisa this evening. Although the exact center has
been difficult to pinpoint in infrared satellite images, it appears
that it is located near the southwestern edge of the convection due
to some southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates still
support a wind speed of around 40 kt, so the initial intensity is
unchanged for this advisory. Lisa has about 24 hours over warm
water and in a marginally conducive upper-level wind environment in
which to strengthen. After that time, an upper-level low to Lisa's
northwest is expected to produce strong southwesterly shear over
the cyclone, which should cause weakening. As a result, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for peak intensity in about 24 hours,
followed by steady weakening thereafter. The official forecast is
near the upper-end of the guidance at 24 hours, but is slightly
lower than the consensus after that time.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 315/9 kt. The
track forecast appears to be fairly straight forward as Lisa
should continue moving northwestward during the next several
days toward a break in the subtropical ridge. Late in the forecast
period, the cyclone should turn northward ahead of a deepening mid-
to upper-level trough over the west-central Atlantic. The dynamical
models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast
is near a blend of the typically better performing ECMWF and GFS
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 17.1N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 17.8N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 20.6N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 23.6N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 26.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z 31.0N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: LISA - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:02 am

TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016

Lisa's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized into a
comma-like shape, although the system still appears to be somewhat
elongated from southwest to northeast. Upper-level outflow
remains weak over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB yield an intensity
estimate of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory. The
storm has less than 24 hours before west-southwesterly shear
associated with an upper-level trough near 40W-50W longitude becomes
prohibitively large for strengthening. Therefore, some slight
additional intensification could occur today, but beyond 24 hours
Lisa is forecast to steadily weaken. By days 4-5, although the
shear is predicted to weaken when Lisa moves under the trough axis,
the cyclone should have been disrupted too much by the earlier
hostile environment to make a recovery. The official forecast is
close to the LGEM guidance through 48 hours and a little below that
model thereafter.

The center is not easy to locate and the initial motion is a rather
uncertain 315/8 kt, which is partially based on continuity from
earlier estimates. A weak mid-tropospheric ridge to the north and
northeast of Lisa should maintain a generally northwestward motion
through 72 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, an
approaching trough in the westerlies, which is also expected to
accelerate Karl to the northeast, should cause Lisa to turn
northward over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and is close to a consensus of the
ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 17.5N 32.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.2N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 19.1N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 20.1N 35.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 21.3N 37.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 24.1N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 27.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z 32.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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