WPAC: MEGI - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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WPAC: MEGI - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:10 pm

This may be the one the models are very bullish.

96W INVEST 160919 1200 9.0N 160.0E WPAC 15
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 19, 2016 1:28 pm

That was fast. I just posted about this in the Talkin Tropics page.. then suddenly it's here...
No SSD floaters yet, but we can use this one
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:30 pm

Looks like it'll take a few days for it to properly consolidate, but I'm feeling bullish with this one. Guidance is almost unanimous into making 96W into a significant typhoon for someone in the Luzon to Ryukyu area (again).

Image

The next name on the list is Megi, by the way.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 4:50 pm

Floater is up.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 5:32 pm

NWS.

ECMWF has been the more consistent model the last couple of days
in bringing a slowly-developing disturbance through the Marianas
the second half of the week, with locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms Thu-Sat. The GFS also brings the disturbance through
around the same time, but varies much more from run to run on how
quickly the disturbance develops and how far north or south the
center tracks. The current 12Z run seems to spin it up too fast,
with 25-30 kt winds in northern Saipan waters on Thursday and Thu
night, while ECMWF is much lighter. Am staying with previous wind
grids, which represent a rough blend of the two models.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:05 pm

NAVGEM brings this around the vicinity of Guam and intensifies it as it passes Guam. 12Z is slightly weaker, 955mb compared to previous runs had it at 949mb but agrees on something significant east of Taiwan.

CMC gunning for a Taiwan hit again...or could be another Japan landfall.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:17 pm

Oh boy. Looks like from Northern Philippines to Japan may have to watch out for this one. Bottoms 935mb.

00Z.

Image

12Z

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:37 pm

Where have we seen this before?

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:15 pm

Already looking good.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#10 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:24 pm

I wont be surprised if JTWC immediately jumps into a TCFA before this day ends. This one is organizing very fast.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:41 pm

This is a weird concern for the WPac, but something to watch for if 96W tracks more towards Taiwan is how close it tracks over the upwelling of the previous typhoons. There'll likely be some recovery this week as the wakes warm back up and mix out, but the impacts can be seen in both the SSTs and OHC at the moment. If 96W tracks over a wake, it may limit how strong it can get.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:45 pm

It looks great and has that look but the center is still east of the deepest convection.

The shear along the path is worrisome.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#13 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:12 pm

ASCAT shows a clear inverted trough with 96W. It actually looks a lot like an African Easterly Wave one would observe in the Atlantic.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 20, 2016 12:03 am

Microwave also shows an inverted trough, and not a particularly sharp one at that.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 12:51 am

Here it is!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6N
156.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. A 200404Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH BROKEN CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE, AIDED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MARIANA
ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
DUE TO THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 2:45 am

EURO

Image
Image

GFS

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#17 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:12 pm

As of the 1641Z F-15 pass, it looks like consolidation was beginning to occur near 11*N, 154*E or near 10*N, 153*E, on the front part of the wave.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:38 pm

JTWC has the center slightly a bit south but more west.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N 151.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
LIMITED ORGANIZATION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 201641Z SSMI IMAGE
REVEALS BROAD CONVECTION WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NOTABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY A TUTT
CELL SITUATED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:44 pm

Good morning 96W.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:49 pm

Yes yes! More rain on the way!
Scatterometer data from Tuesday night showed a circulation just
to the northeast of Chuuk near 9N154E. A surface trough extends
from the circulation to the northeast. Models are in reasonably
close agreement through this weekend. The only real difference in
the models is that some hint that the circulation will pass close
to if not over Guam. Since it is south of 10N believe it will pass
south of Guam Thursday morning.

Northeast winds will prevail over the Marianas today and tonight
ahead of the circulation and trough. VAD winds at 2 kft this
morning were from the northeast at 15 to 20 knots. Expect wind
speeds of 10 to 20 mph today and tonight. This mornings radar did
show showers and thunderstorms moving across the local area. These
showers will remain isolated in coverage today. As the
circulation/trough approach shower coverage will increase to
scattered after midnight tonight. Models agree on a slight
decrease in wind speeds Thursday and Thursday night.

Models show that the circulation will move northwestward after
passing south of Guam and be near 17N140E Friday night. As it
treks northwest it will begin to develop. Models do show that it
will probably develop into a tropical storm sometime this weekend.
At that time it will be well west of the local area. It will
however be close enough to the Marianas in its developmental stage
so as to cause winds of 15 to 25 mph Friday through Saturday.
Winds could gust into the 30 to 35 mph range Friday...especially
in showers. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected Friday through Saturday as the circulation and trough
pass over the local area.
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