WPAC: MEGI - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:10 pm

Our top models, GFS and EURO shows a significant typhoon making landfall over Taiwan but looks to be trending weaker a bit.

Probrably they are responding to the cold pool of water that was churned up during Meranti and Malakas and 96W might go over the same area so only slow to modest strengthening is possible.

If it wasn't for Meranti and Malakas, this should be well on it's way to becoming a Cat 5 monster.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:30 pm

Upgraded to medium.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N 151.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
LIMITED ORGANIZATION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A 201641Z SSMI IMAGE
REVEALS BROAD CONVECTION WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NOTABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTED BY A TUTT
CELL SITUATED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.


Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:34 pm

000
WWMY80 PGUM 210024
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1030 AM CHST WED SEP 21 2016

GUZ001>004-220200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
PMZ151>154-220200-
MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
1030 AM CHST WED SEP 21 2016

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM NEAR 10N152E AND IT HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MARIANAS. INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CHANGEABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF YOU
ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF CURRENT
MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#24 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:46 pm

I'd probably be a little further north than JTWC (10.1*N), but about 151.5*E looks good to me right now based on vis, which is in good agreement with JTWC based on continued movement. Consolidating vorticity is easily evident.

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#25 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:47 pm

JMA has upgraded 96W to a depression.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:49 pm

Here we go, it looks like JMA is expecting to name 96W "Megi" within 24 hours.

Image

TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 21 September 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 21 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N10°00' (10.0°)
E152°00' (152.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35 km/h (20 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°00' (11.0°)
E148°00' (148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°30' (12.5°)
E145°00' (145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#27 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:38 am

Image

Now under a TCFA.

WTPN21 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 151.7E TO 13.6N 142.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N
150.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 151.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 390
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. A 210405Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
ELSEWHERE WRAPPING BROADLY AROUND THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 20- TO 25-KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELLL TO THE NORTH, AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH LIMITED, IS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CPA WITH GUAM NEAR TAU 24 WHILE INTENSIFYING
STEADILY DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220600Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#28 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 1:30 am

TPPN10 PGTW 210620

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 21/0600Z

C. 10.15N

D. 149.96E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#29 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:16 am

000
WWMY80 PGUM 210712
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM CHST WED SEP 21 2016

GUZ001>004-220200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
PMZ151>154-220200-
MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
500 PM CHST WED SEP 21 2016

...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED FOR DISTURBANCE
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 400 PM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR
10N150E OR ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 455 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAIPAN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WESTWARD SLOWLY AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF
CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE). FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TCFA SEE BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN21 PGTW.

$$

MILLER/SIMPSON
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#30 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 4:30 am

TXPQ21 KNES 210806
TCSWNP

A. (96W)

B. 21/0230Z

C. 10.1N

D. 149.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#31 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:27 am

Up to 1.5!

TXPQ21 KNES 211026
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 21/0830Z

C. 10.0N

D. 147.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.5 WHILE MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/0605Z 10.2N 148.8E SSMIS


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a" (was Invest 96W)

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:01 am

Looks poised to go up in intensity fast.

Image
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#33 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:52 am

TPPN10 PGTW 211823

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 21/1800Z

C. 10.36N

D. 145.12E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#34 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:42 pm

NWS.

Last night`s scatterometer data and early morning radar imagery
hint that the circulation is south of Guam between 11N and 12N
and 146E. Models initialize well in showing the circulation near
that position. Models agree that the circulation will continue to
move northwest through the day eventually being located near
15N140E on Friday morning.

24 hour pressure change indicates falls over the Marianas with
a 5 Mb fall being observed on Guam and between 3 and 4 Mb at
Saipan. This increase in pressure falls indicates that the
circulation continues to organize...at least it is attempting to
do so. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near midnight
have given way to nearly isolated conditions by 5 am. Showers
should increase through the day so left scattered showers in the
forecast. VAD winds at 2kft just after midnight were up to 32
knots but by 430 a.m. they had decreased to 19 knots. Models
actually depict this brief rise...then decrease with increasing
winds late this afternoon or evening. Expect northeast winds this
morning becoming east later then southeast by this afternoon.
Winds speeds will be between 10 to 20 mph with higher gust in
showers. Southeast winds between 10 to 20 mph...scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight as the circulation
will be southwest of Guam.

The circulation will be close to 15N140E by Friday morning.
At this time it will continue to develop. Not certain when it
will become a tropical depression...at any rate it will be moving
away from the local area. Despite moving away it will be close
enough to generate winds between 20 to 25 mph with higher gust in
showers on Friday.

By Friday night the circulation will be west of 140E which will
be far enough away to allow winds over the Marianas to decrease
to between 10 to 15 mph.

High pressure will try to push in from the east but low-level
convergence east of the developing system will produce scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

A weak surface trough will generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday night.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#35 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:22 pm

Latest JMA position closer to Guam. Makes sense to me though as the latest satellite loop seems to show the southern twirl dissipating.
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#36 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:21 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210552Z SEP 16//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 210600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 142.2E TO 11.5N 134.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 140.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 150.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 124
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 220535Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, DISORGANIZED SHALLOW CONVECTION IN
THESE SAME AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE (GREATER THAN 28C). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
DYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230600Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#37 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 2:29 am

TPPN10 PGTW 220540

A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 22/0000Z

C. 8.25N

D. 14.35E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. ALL METHODS YIELD
TOO WEAK. DBO CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART

TXPQ21 KNES 220317
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 10.4N

D. 141.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.0. PT=1.5 WHILE MET=1.0. FT IS
BASED ON PT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AMBIGUOUS CLOUD FEATURES

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#38 Postby Harrycane » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:16 am

Totally unrelated but you might want to take a look at Itbayat after the eye of super typhoon Meranti directly passed over it. What are these houses built with? :eek:
http://interaksyon.com/article/132536/look--first-glimpse-of-itbayat-from-the-air-after-super-typhoon-ferdie
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#39 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:08 am

Next name on the list: MEGI. Could it end up near the intensity its 2010 counterpart? The name itself scares me.... :eek: :eek:
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "a"

#40 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:11 am

JMA takes this to luzon and intensifies it in the SCS.

Image
Image

NAVGEM goes Taiwan hit. Weaker than past runs.

Image

CMC Meranti PKKart 2.

Image
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