WPAC: MEGI - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#61 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:11 am

The wind field is massive. There is a huge area of 30 kt winds on the east side with what looks like a few 35 kt barbs on the inside edge of the METOP-B ASCAT pass.

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#62 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:28 am

Extremely cold tops right now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:13 pm

Easy T3.0. This is at least 50 knots.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#64 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 23, 2016 6:51 pm

This storm is massive indeed, but that may be the same reason why this will not come close to Megi 2010's intensity. It is also tracking a bit north of the bulk of higher SSTs, but we'll see...
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

#65 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:47 pm

JMA is up to a Severe Tropical Storm.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#66 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:42 am

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MEGI) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 527 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 232156Z GPM 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTENING
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATING CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES REPORTING T3.0 (45 KNOTS). A PARTIAL 240002Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A REGION OF AT LEAST 40 KNOTS PRESENT ON THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW (5 TO
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE, NEAR 30
CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS MEGI IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS MEGI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS TS
MEGI CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BEYOND TAU 72 TS MEGI IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF TAIWAN, WEAKENING RAPIDLY INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE INTO CHINA BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN DEPARTING FROM THE GROUP CLUSTER
SHOWING A TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#67 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 12:43 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2016 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 18:17:48 N Lon : 135:38:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 988.0mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.5 3.5

Center Temp : -38.7C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.3 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#68 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:17 am

JMA at typhoon intensity now. Their forecast is also considerably more aggressive than JTWC's.

Image

TY 1617 (Megi)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 September 2016

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 24 September>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°20' (18.3°)
E135°20' (135.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 500 km (270 NM)
W 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 24 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10' (19.2°)
E132°25' (132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 25 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N20°05' (20.1°)
E129°40' (129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 26 September>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N21°25' (21.4°)
E124°55' (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 September>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°40' (23.7°)
E119°55' (119.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#69 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:18 am

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MEGI) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE BUT RAGGED EYE. A 240709Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS TIGHTLY
AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE INTO A DEFINED CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK
MOTION. ADDITIONALLY, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND
NOW RANGE FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS) WITH A 240513Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A STRONG TUTT CELL TO
THE EAST. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS
MEGI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN A
STRAIGHT-RUNNER PATTERN THROUGH TAU 72 WHILE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A 75-NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF TAIWAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 105
KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MEGI WILL CROSS OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER
THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER
SOUTHEAST CHINA NEAR TAU 96, AND WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND. DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#70 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:19 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2016 Time : 084000 UTC
Lat : 18:31:33 N Lon : 134:49:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 968.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.9 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +3.1C Cloud Region Temp : -62.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 132km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.8 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2016 5:59 am

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#72 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 24, 2016 10:12 am

20W MEGI 160924 1200 18.6N 133.9E WPAC 65 981
Cat 1...for now.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#73 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:50 pm

Image

Stronger at landfall now peaks under Category 4.

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MEGI) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 544 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A TUTT CELL
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE TUTT CELL HAS BEEN ENHANCING OUTFLOW,
BUT IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF ENCROACHMENT ON THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SSTS ARE VERY WARM, NEAR
30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY MEGI IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE EASTWARD POSITIONED TUTT CELL WILL LIKELY
HINDER OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY TO
MITIGATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TY MEGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF SOUTHERN TAIWAN NEAR TAU 60,
WEAKENING RAPIDLY INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT RESURFACES OVER WATER
NEAR TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE INTO CHINA. RAPID DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED OVER LAND JUST BEYOND TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF TY MEGI.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#74 Postby Darvince » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:20 pm

Megi looks like it's about to go BOOM
Image
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#75 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:44 am

90 knots.


WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MEGI) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
242205Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO THE STORM CENTER WITH THE BEGINNING STAGES OF EYE
FORMATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REPORTING T5.0 (90
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE
SYSTEM WITH A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST ASSISTING OUTFLOW.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SSTS ARE VERY
WARM, NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY MEGI IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE EASTWARD POSITIONED
TUTT CELL TO MARGINALLY DISRUPT OUTFLOW, BUT THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
DECREASE AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM TY MEGI THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TY MEGI IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF SOUTHERN TAIWAN NEAR TAU 60, WEAKENING RAPIDLY
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT RESURFACES OVER WATER SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST
ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE INTO CHINA. RAPID DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED OVER LAND JUST BEYOND TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF TY MEGI.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#76 Postby ManilaTC » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:15 am

Wind field of this storm is massive. ASCAT pass shows 25kt (gale force) winds reaching up to 12N southward.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#77 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 7:48 am

95 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MEGI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TY 20W HAS NOT
YET FORMED AN EYE BUT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND A 250657Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TY MEGI IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE,
AND REFLECTS AN EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WIND AREA OVER ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN A
STRAIGHT-RUNNER PATTERN WHILE INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS
UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH A 100-NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48, NEAR LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN.
AFTER TAU 48, TY MEGI WILL CROSS OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
C. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA NEAR TAU 72, AND WILL BEGIN
DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#78 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:54 am

Structure has been holding Megi back. If some of the inner bands unify into an eyewall, we may be in business, but not until then.

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#79 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Sep 25, 2016 11:02 am

:uarrow: "ew"
It's still struggling to build a solid core plus its convection looks anemic to me..maybe its feeling the cold wake of Meranti.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon - Discussion

#80 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:59 pm

90 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MEGI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL
DEEP CONVECTIVE RADIAL BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. A
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IS STILL ABSENT FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY DESPITE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED
ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, TAPPING INTO THE WESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE NORTH AND A LARGE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SSTS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE, NEAR 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY MEGI IS TRACKING NORTHWEST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN, HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS
A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD.
B. TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTERN TRACK ALONG THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 24
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL ENSUE FOLLOWING LANDFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF CENTRAL TAIWAN AROUND TAU 36. TY MEGI IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER WATER OFF THE WESTERN SHORE OF TAIWAN
REORGANIZING AS A TROPICAL STORM, THEN MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER
CHINA NEAR TAU 60. RAPID DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AS TY MEGI TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
LOCATION AND SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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