EPAC: ROSLYN - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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EPAC: ROSLYN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:24 pm

EP, 94, 2016092000, , BEST, 0, 92N, 1051W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS030, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
EP, 94, 2016092006, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1059W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS030, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
EP, 94, 2016092012, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1066W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS030, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
EP, 94, 2016092018, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1073W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS030, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030,
EP, 94, 2016092100, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1080W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


A broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development during the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form later this week. This
system is forecast to move generally westward at around 10 mph for
the next couple of days, and then turn northwestward and then
northward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:33 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 09/21/16 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 48 55 59 64 69 72 73
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 48 55 59 64 69 72 73
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 28 30 34 38 43 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 13 11 16 12 16 17 13 8 2 0
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 16 354 352 355 3 24 30 22 38 33 47 69 269
SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 149 149 149 148 147 148 152 153 153
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 72 73 75 76 76 75 71 66 64 60 58 60 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 13 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 0 11 25 33 50 46 37 28 13 -5 -14
200 MB DIV 76 85 84 98 115 102 106 102 85 72 41 41 69
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0
LAND (KM) 1059 1090 1118 1146 1182 1296 1386 1437 1469 1446 1375 1259 1116
LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.9 109.8 110.8 111.8 113.7 115.3 116.4 117.2 117.3 116.7 115.2 113.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 8 7 4 2 2 6 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 13 12 20 22 24 25 26 28 29 36

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 28. 35. 39. 44. 49. 52. 53.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.9 108.0

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.70 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 32.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 16.6% 12.6% 5.5% 3.1% 14.0% 19.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 6.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 1.2%
Consensus: 0.7% 7.7% 4.7% 2.0% 1.0% 4.8% 6.8%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:06 am

GFS very bullish. Shows a major hurricane striking southern Baja.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:18 am

A broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development during the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or
this weekend. This system is forecast to move westward to west-
northwestward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days and then
turn northward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:04 am

Image

6z GFS

Image

0z GFS
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 21, 2016 8:07 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 09/21/16 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 56 61 63 63 64 65 63
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 56 61 63 63 64 65 63
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 44 46 49 51 54 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 12 17 19 24 24 23 23 15 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 3 2 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 0 0
SHEAR DIR 10 30 72 69 63 73 59 63 64 74 60 32 302
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 149 147 146 143 145 148 152 158 154
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6
700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 74 73 71 67 62 58 55 59 69 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -4 7 17 28 33 53 53 28 27 14 -2 -1 9
200 MB DIV 80 73 80 88 85 112 114 70 55 83 83 100 61
700-850 TADV 3 4 5 6 6 7 3 2 0 -1 -3 -1 3
LAND (KM) 1258 1344 1413 1482 1572 1737 1869 1920 1905 1782 1592 1240 804
LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.4 9.8 9.6 9.7 10.4 11.3 13.3 16.6
LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.4 115.7 116.9 118.0 119.8 121.0 121.5 121.4 120.5 118.8 116.0 113.8
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 8 6 0 3 8 13 19 20
HEAT CONTENT 16 19 19 20 18 16 24 30 29 18 18 32 26

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 14.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 31. 36. 38. 38. 39. 40. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 113.0

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 4.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 4.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 4.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.63 2.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 43.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.0% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 21.8% 8.8% 2.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.9%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Ignore the shear values post day 3, in the GFS storm outflow.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:30 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942016 09/21/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 42 45 48 50 49 46
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 35 38 42 45 48 50 49 46
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 28 29 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 13 17 21 22 27 26 26 22 14 18 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 4 2 2 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 -4
SHEAR DIR 62 71 73 66 63 57 52 63 69 61 9 294 270
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.6 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 144 142 140 137 140 145 152 156 152 145
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 5
700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 71 68 67 62 58 56 61 68 65 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 23 27 32 38 22 24 17 10 -14 24 51
200 MB DIV 50 46 80 82 77 121 95 83 89 81 49 76 43
700-850 TADV 5 6 7 7 6 4 1 0 -3 -6 0 2 11
LAND (KM) 1531 1586 1657 1729 1808 1902 1942 1890 1731 1483 1145 770 501
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.3 8.8 8.5 8.8 9.8 11.4 13.7 16.7 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.8 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.1 120.3 119.9 118.8 117.1 114.9 113.3 113.3
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 6 4 0 5 9 14 17 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 14 14 17 17 16 14 21 37 25 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 14. 12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 24. 21.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 115.6

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 3.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942016 INVEST 09/21/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:55 pm

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure is located about 900 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Although the system has changed little in organization
since yesterday, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or over the
weekend. This system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 mph for the next couple of days
and then turn northward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:15 pm

idk why ppl stopped posting here

A broad area of low pressure is located about 800 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past
several hours, there are still no signs of a well-defined surface
circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to support the
development of a tropical depression over the weekend while the
disturbance moves slowly toward the northwest and then north at
about 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:45 pm

Clearly this hasn't developed since yesterday morning. What's holding it back?

5 pm TWO ...

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has not become any
better organized during the past several hours. Environmental
conditions are still expected to support the formation of a
tropical depression over the weekend. This disturbance is moving
slowly toward the northwest at about 5 to 10 mph, and a turn toward
the north is expected in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:46 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:idk why ppl stopped posting here


I wanted to but I noticed it was very quiet so I changed my mind. :P
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#12 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:00 am

Starting to make progress again.

A large low pressure area centered about 900 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Satellite images indicate that the low's
circulation, although still broad, is gradually becoming better
defined, and environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical
depression to form during the next day or two. This disturbance is
expected to move slowly northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:16 pm

Almost there ...

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a large low pressure system located about 900 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
will likely form later today or Sunday. This disturbance is
expected to move slowly northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#14 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 6:48 pm

No change. Certainly taking its time!

A low pressure system located about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite data indicates that a
well-defined surface circulation does not yet exist. Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain conducive for development while
the system moves slowly northward, and a tropical depression is
expected to form on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:12 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Deep convection associated with the low pressure area located well
southwest of the Baja California has become better organized
overnight, and early morning visible satellite imagery indicate
that the circulation has become better defined. Based on these
observations, and Dvorak classifications of T2.0 and T1.5 from
TAFB and SAB respectively, advisories are being initiated on a
30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is currently
located over warm water and within an area of low vertical wind
shear, which is favorable for some gradual strengthening today.
However, in about 24 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move
into an area of higher southwesterly shear caused by large mid- to
upper-level low and associated trough over northwestern Mexico. The
global models suggest that the shear will become quite strong in 36
to 48 hours as the cyclone begins moving over cooler waters. This
should result in a rapid spin down, and the system is likely to
become a post-tropical remnant low within 3 days. The official
intensity foreast is slightly above the SHIPS guidance but is in
good agreement with the intensity consensus.

Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 360/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to
be steered slowly northward or north-northeastward during the next
couple of days around the western portion of a weak mid-level ridge
that extends southwestward from southern Mexico. By 72 hours, the
low should turn northwestward in the low-level steering flow after
it weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system. Although the
ECMWF and GFS models are on opposite sides of the guidance envelope,
the track models are in general agreement on the overall scenario
and the NHC forecast lies near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1700Z 15.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.0N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 12:48 pm

Wow, that was unexpected! Something similar happened to Howard earlier this year, the first advisory was a special one outside of the normal advisory times.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:25 pm

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 252032
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

The overall organization of the depression has not changed much
since this morning. The center is exposed to the north of the main
area of thunderstorm activity, with some banding noted over the
northeastern quadrant. Visible imagery shows that there are
several smaller swirls rotating around the mean center. Dvorak
intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from
SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and to be in a
low-shear environment during the next 12 to 24 hours, but the large
and sprawling nature of the system suggests that any intensification
should be slow to occur. By late Monday, the cyclone will be
moving into an area of increasing southwesterly shear, and by
Tuesday the system will be moving over cooler waters and into
a more stable air mass. These conditions should result in weakening
within 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a remnant low
in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous advisory and is once again in best agreement with the IVCN
consensus model.

The depression is moving northward or 360/6 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone
should move north-northeastward around the western portion of a
weak ridge that extends southwestward from southern Mexico.
Although most of the track models agree with this scenario, the
GFS and GFDL take a stronger and deeper cyclone more northeastward,
and northward around the aforementioned upper-level low later in the
period. The NHC track favors the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean
solutions, which show a weaker and more shallow system turning
northwestward well west of the Baja California peninsula. The new
NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.1N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.8N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 17.4N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.2N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.1N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 24.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 25, 2016 6:19 pm

Doesn't seem like future Roslyn will become much. Shear should take it out before it significantly intensifies.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:57 pm

Very sad system. :lol:

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260243
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
last several hours. The center of the system is partially exposed
on the west side of a convective band. Satellite images also show
a pronounced dry slot to the west and northwest of the center. The
Dvorak classifications remain T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt
from SAB, and based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is
held at 30 kt.

Some slight strengthening is possible overnight or on Monday while
the system remains over warm water and in an environment of light to
moderate shear. After that time, the environment should become less
conducive with southwesterly shear increasing to more than 20 kt in
about 24 hours, which will likely end the opportunity for
strengthening. The system is forecast to cross the 26-deg-C
isotherm in 36 to 48 hours, and as a result, it should become a
remnant low by day 3. The global models show the remnant low
dissipating by the end of the forecast period, and that is reflected
in the official forecast. The new intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous one and is in good agreement with the latest
intensity model consensus.

The center of the depression has wobbled a bit to the west of the
previous track, and the current motion estimate is 345/6 kt. A large
cut-off mid- to upper-level low over northwestern Mexico is expected
to drift southwestward during the next day or two. This should
cause the system to turn north-northeastward to northeastward on
Monday, and continue in that general direction through mid-week.
Once the system becomes a shallow remnant low, a turn to the
west-northwest is predicted, following the low-level trade wind
flow. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous
one, and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean and a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 22.6N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 24.6N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby arlwx » Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:10 am

TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016
200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016

The sheared cloud pattern in infrared satellite imagery has changed
little since the previous advisory. However, a 0304Z SSMI/S pass
indicated the low-level structure had improved markedly, with a
sharp hooked band wrapping more than half around the now
well-defined low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has
been increased to 35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35
kt from TAFB and the improved low-level structure indicated in
SSMI/S 37 GHZ data. This makes Roslyn the seventeenth named storm of
the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate is 020/4 kt. The advisory position had
to be adjusted more than 30 nmi to the east of the previous advisory
track based on recent SSMI/S and AMSU microwave center fixes.
Otherwise, the previous track forecast rationale remains unchanged.
A large mid- to upper-level low currently located over the central
Baja California peninsula is expected to continue moving westward to
west-southwestward during the next day or two. The combined
southwesterly flow between that low and a deep-layer ridge located
to the east and southeast of Roslyn should keep the tropical cyclone
moving slowly north-northeastward to northeastward for the next 48
hours. After that, Roslyn is expected to weaken into a shallow
remnant low, turning northward on day 3 and then northwestward on
day 4. The new NHC track forecast is to the right of the previous
advisory track, mainly due to the more eastward initial position,
and lies close to the various consensus models.

Little if any strengthening is expected due to gradually increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear and a very dry mid-level moisture
regime characterized by humidity values less than 40 percent. By 36
to 48 hours, the vertical shear is forecast to increase to more than
30 kt, which is expected to erode the deep convection and induce
steady weakening. As a result, Roslyn is forecast to become a
remnant low by 48 hours, but this could occur sooner. The GFS and
ECMWF models show the remnant low dissipating by the end of the
forecast period when Roslyn will be moving over sub-24C SSTs. The
new intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and
closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.8N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 19.1N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 20.4N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 22.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z 24.6N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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