WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109498
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:49 am

98W INVEST 160924 1200 15.0N 166.0E WPAC 15
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:00 pm

98W INVEST 160924 1800 15.6N 164.5E WPAC 15 1010

Very interesting looking system. Seems to have a nice circulation.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 25, 2016 4:13 pm

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 2:30 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.6N 157.9E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 252320Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 252321Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE
SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF GRADIENT EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH 10-15 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 2:33 am

TXPQ22 KNES 260313
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 26/0230Z

C. 15.9N

D. 158.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL/LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND LLCC LOCATED JUST UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL
COLD OVERCAST. DT=1.5 MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:33 am

Wth? NAVGEM develops this into another Taiwan lanfall. Year of landfalls.

958 mb east of Taiwan?

Image

CMC recurves it just in time but Japan again?

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:48 am

EURO was very robust with this. Brings a Major to Taiwan area but has backed off.

Now has a weak TS near China.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:21 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 262058
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 26/2030Z

C. 15.3N

D. 153.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED UNDER A COLD OVERCAST MEASURING LESS THAN
1.5DEG. DT=2.0 MET=1.0 WHILE PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:32 pm

NWS

The main player in the forecast the next few days will be the
tropical disturbance approaching the Marianas from the east. Near
its center is a weak circulation, while all the higher winds are
to the north. The latest ECMWF-HiRes takes the center near Saipan.
In this scenario, the winds stay weak over the forecast zones and
the only noticeable affects will be a change in direction and an
increase in showers. The 12Z GFS takes it over Rota. In this case,
the higher winds may reach Saipan, particularly northern Saipan
waters, which may see wind speeds as high as 20 knots. Went ahead
and built the grids on this scenario, so they represent a worst
case, which is still not all that bad.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:56 pm

NAVGEM and JMA weaker... CMC and EURO brings this to a typhoon. GFS zilch.

Image
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3238
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:58 pm

Might soon be Chaba.

Image

TD
Issued at 22:05 UTC, 26 September 2016

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 26 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°30' (15.5°)
E153°55' (153.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 27 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E151°10' (151.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 27 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E148°35' (148.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:43 pm

Looks like JTWC's coordinates has the center north of the deepest convection. JMA further south near the deepest convection.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:34 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1230 PM CHST TUE SEP 27 2016

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-272200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
1230 PM CHST TUE SEP 27 2016

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 560 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND
485 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...NEAR LATITUDE 15 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153 DEGREES EAST. IT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 MPH.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WELL NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE
CENTER PASSES THE MARIANAS...SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF YOU
ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3238
Age: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:15 pm

This is definitely a 30 kt depression now. I'm not sure what JTWC is doing, but JMA has this one right.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:01 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6N
157.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 153.4E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST
OF ANDERSON AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 262346Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 262301Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20 KNOTS OF GRADIENT
INDUCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAKER (10 TO 15
KNOTS) WINDS ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
OUTFLOW AND LIGHT-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD GUAM,
AND INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:06 am

Even NWS Guam agreeing it is a TD now. I wonder what JTWC is thinking.
Have re-worked the forecast to account for the passage of 98W
across the Marianas Wed and Wed night. The models are not showing
any development as 98W moves by, but it is currently producing
winds of 20-30 MPH north of the center and lots of rain and
lightning. Upper-level convergence may stifle 98W somewhat if the
models are correct, but 98W as it is now is enough to warrant a
forecast of locally heavy rain and moderate to strong winds. If
98W moves between Rota and Tinian as forecast, Guam and Rota will
likely see only moderate to fresh winds, but Saipan might see
winds reaching 25 mph at times Wed or Wed evening. Rainfall is
highly uncertain, but several inches is possible in the heaviest
rain.

The uncertainty factor is high in general in this forecast, as the
models insist on keeping 98W weak when it is currently looking a
lot like a tropical depression. The forecast was made to be a
little pessimistic, and if the models are correct there may be less
wind and rain than forecast. On the other hand, if 98W maintains
its present status as it moves by tomorrow, the forecast would
turn out to be pretty close. Island residents should monitor this
situation closely, as indeed we will be as well.

98W has shown a marked daily convective cycle the last couple of
days, with increased deep convection and a lot of lightning during
the morning,then decreasing by late afternoon and evening. But
since Monday afternoon the overall condition of 98W has been
fairly steady with little change in its wind field. Upper level
winds are not especially favorable for development the next couple
of days with an upper low northeast of 98W. As a result, it
appears likely to move through the Marianas with little change in
intensity and possibly producing quite a bit of rain and lightning.

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:48 am

Image

TD
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 27 September 2016

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 27 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°25' (14.4°)
E152°20' (152.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 27 September>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N14°40' (14.7°)
E149°25' (149.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 28 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50' (14.8°)
E146°50' (146.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:33 am

TXPQ22 KNES 270901
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 15.0N

D. 151.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
LLCC THAT IS LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A COLD OVERCAST WIDER
THAN 1.5 DEGREES. DT=2.0. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
kala
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 92
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:35 am
Location: Arizona

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby kala » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:32 pm

We have Tropical Storm Chaba

WTPQ21 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1618 CHABA (1618) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 14.6N 150.1E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 14.8N 144.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 291800UTC 15.7N 140.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 301800UTC 17.3N 136.8E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


I find it hard to believe it's supposed to be a typhoon in 2 days. Not sure where JMA is getting that from.

I'm also not entirely convinced it's a tropical storm, but it's definitely a bad call that JTWC hasn't upgraded it to a depression. It was ready 24 hours ago.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13102
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:50 pm

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 272000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270600Z SEP 16//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 270600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 150.9E TO 15.0N 144.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 149.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 152.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY
280 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED 3.9 MICRONS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271629Z SSMI 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING BROADLY AROUND THE
CONSOLIDATING LLCC. RECENT 271148Z METOP B ASCAT DATA INDICATES 20
TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 50 NM FROM THE LLCC WITH
WEAKER WINDS OVER THE LLCC AND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO
HINDER DEVELOPMENT BY ENHANCING THE VWS. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD GUAM. CPA TO GUAM
IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE OVERALL ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
282000Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest