WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#101 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:16 pm

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Eye is about to clear out but I wonder what's causing the erosion of convection in the northwestern part of the storm - subsidence?, shear?
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#102 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:24 pm

I'd say a touch of subsidence. There was an upper low just northwest of Chaba yesterday that has since filled, but there may still be a little residual subsidence.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#103 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:43 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (CHABA) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED 15-NM EYE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
DEEPENED SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH WARM (30C)
SSTS, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG BIAS ON THE POLEWARD CHANNEL.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 21W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STEERING STR AND BEGIN TO
TRACK AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, BRUSHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF JAPAN. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
HONSHU NORTH OF TOKYO. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS - ENHANCED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW - LEADING TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12,
INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
JAPAN WILL CAUSE GRADUAL THEN RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 72, TY 21W WILL BE
REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY WEAKER. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY CHABA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE BUT MORE ON
AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, EXIT JAPAN INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN,
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT, BUT THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUAL LANDFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND TAU 24.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#104 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:06 pm

GPM pass from less than an hour ago show that the eye should be clearing out very soon.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#105 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:21 pm

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#106 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:24 pm

Looks like 00Z has an off-white eye embedded in white and with a cold medium grey ring (DT 6.5). I would personally go with 130 kt for 00Z.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#107 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:30 pm

Both the JMA and JTWC went with T6.5 at 00Z.
JMA brings a 100-knot typhoon (corresponding to 1-minute sustained winds of 125 knots) to the island of Kumejima. If I remember correctly, Chaba may be the strongest typhoon ever to hit the island.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#108 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:42 pm

125 knots

21W CHABA 161003 0000 23.9N 127.5E WPAC 125 935
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#109 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:44 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#110 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:51 pm

NotoSans wrote:Both the JMA and JTWC went with T6.5 at 00Z.
JMA brings a 100-knot typhoon (corresponding to 1-minute sustained winds of 125 knots) to the island of Kumejima. If I remember correctly, Chaba may be the strongest typhoon ever to hit the island.


I think they've seen stronger in the past , i just can't remember the name.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#111 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:08 pm

Warm medium grey pixels are beginning to poke through the eye.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#112 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:47 pm

Dang.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#113 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:21 pm

SAB goes with a 7.0, while JTWC goes all the way to 7.5 (which I did not expect at all).

TXPQ22 KNES 030310
TCSWNP

A. 21W (CHABA)

B. 03/0230Z

C. 24.3N

D. 127.3E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED BY W WITH 1.0 ADDED FOR AN
EYE ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0. MET=6.5 AND PT=6.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM


TPPN11 PGTW 030314

A. TYPHOON 21W (CHABA)

B. 03/0250Z

C. 24.39N

D. 127.32E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/2159Z 23.37N 127.80E SSMS
02/2205Z 23.43N 127.82E MMHS
02/2252Z 23.50N 127.70E SSMS


DREW
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#114 Postby NotoSans » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:28 pm

A 7.0 sounds more reasonable to me since the CMG ring does not meet the width requirement. Hope the residents on Kumejima will be safe, since they will probably be hit by a category 5.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#115 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:35 pm

The cold medium grey is real close when looking at the 0250Z image from RAMMB, with just a few pixels playing spoiler. The RAMMB imagery does seem to be just a little bit more generous to the colder tops than SSD's for some reason though.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#116 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:01 pm

Looks like the ocean is starting to become visible through the eye.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#117 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:36 pm

0330Z Himawari-8 RGB

absolutely amazing.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#118 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:53 am

reall, really intense. Personally i would say 145kt/915mb at 06Z. Don't forget traditional Dvorak underestimates strong TC between T6.5-T8.0.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#119 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:59 am

Chaba has excellent mass removal with dual outflow channels.

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#120 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:15 am

Not bad.

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