WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#121 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 am

JTWC might go 145kts at least with 7.0-7.5 blend.. Though I hope Matthew and Chaba co-existed as Cat5's for entertainment viewing. :lol:
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#122 Postby mario_zxn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:50 am

CRAZY.
TPPN10 PGTW 030637
A. SUPER TYPHOON 21W (CHABA)
B. 03/0610Z
C. 24.92N
D. 127.02E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0155Z 23.98N 127.57E MMHS
03/0544Z 24.93N 127.12E SSMI
HART
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#123 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:52 am

JTWC remains at 7.5. I'm not sure they're going to be as aggressive as they were with Meranti (155 kt right out the gate), but they very well could. The 06Z intensity estimate should be out any minute.

TPPN10 PGTW 030637

A. SUPER TYPHOON 21W (CHABA)

B. 03/0610Z

C. 24.92N

D. 127.02E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0155Z 23.98N 127.57E MMHS
03/0544Z 24.93N 127.12E SSMI


HART
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#124 Postby mario_zxn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:55 am

110KTS FROM JMA.

WTPQ21 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1618 CHABA (1618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 24.9N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 29.6N 126.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 050600UTC 35.7N 131.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 060600UTC 40.1N 152.2E 220NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#125 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:58 am

Chaba is basically a body double for Nepartak (2nd eyewall) right now.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#126 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:03 am

21W CHABA 161003 0600 24.9N 127.0E WPAC 145 915

145 knots!
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#127 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:04 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#128 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:04 am

Cunxi Huang wrote:reall, really intense. Personally i would say 145kt/915mb at 06Z. Don't forget traditional Dvorak underestimates strong TC between T6.5-T8.0.

[image removed]

WP, 21, 2016100306, , BEST, 0, 249N, 1270E, 145, 915, ST, 34, NEQ, 105, 75, 95, 70, 1005, 200, 10, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, CHABA, D,


this is kinda interesting 8-)
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#129 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:07 am

Cunxi Huang forecasts for JTWC? :P
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#130 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:10 am

Wow...

Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#131 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:20 am

Cunxi Huang wrote:
Cunxi Huang wrote:reall, really intense. Personally i would say 145kt/915mb at 06Z. Don't forget traditional Dvorak underestimates strong TC between T6.5-T8.0.

[image removed]

WP, 21, 2016100306, , BEST, 0, 249N, 1270E, 145, 915, ST, 34, NEQ, 105, 75, 95, 70, 1005, 200, 10, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, CHABA, D,


this is kinda interesting 8-)


I'd say 150 to 160 knots now. Dvorak lags behind real time data.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#132 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:22 am

amazing!!!

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#133 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:26 am

Crazy to see something like this so far north in October. The cloud tops have an opportunity to cool even more once the sun goes down if everything else remains status quo. I'm thinking Chaba will probably peak around 12Z, after that, the eyewall will likely be completely doubled up at the least. Some early hints are already starting to show up on radar.

Also, some more vis action:

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#134 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:42 am

CHABA is currently munching EPAC's lead.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#135 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:08 am

Okinawa is extremely lucky.

WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 21W (CHABA) WARNING NR
22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY CHABA
HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, NOW ASSESSED AT 145 KNOTS BASED
ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP 5-NM EYE
FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORE. THE POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN EIR
AND RADAR IMAGERY. A 030544Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP
RING OF CONVECTION EXTENDING 25-NM FROM THE CENTER OF THE EYE.
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS PRESENT ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE STORM. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM KADENA AB, OKINAWA
AND MIYAKO-JIMA. STY 21W HAS STRENGTHENED DUE TO VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EASTERN CHINA. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE STARTING TO SHOW A TILT IN THE EYE OF THE
SUPER TYPHOON DUE TO PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY 21W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY CHABA WILL CONTINUING MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT
PASSES TO THE WEST OF OKINAWA. AFTERWARDS, STY 21W WILL TURN
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE
ROBUST OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE THE INCREASING VWS FURTHER TILTS THE STORM AND BEGINS THE
WEAKENING PHASE. THE STRONG ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
(30+ KNOT) VWS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN
AND SOUTH KOREA. STY CHABA WILL REACH THIS AREA NEAR TAU 36, WHICH
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ELONGATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
EMBEDS WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF MAINLAND JAPAN. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
COOL WATERS IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND THEN ACROSS THE RUGGED JAPANESE
TERRAIN. STY CHABA WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW NO
CHANGE TO THE LOCATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES; THEREFORE,
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#136 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:13 am

It's eye only 5 miles. I wonder what recon will find in that intense western eyewall. Probably close to 165 to 175 knots.

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#137 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 6:05 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#138 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:42 am

JMA went with T7.5/7.5 at 12Z, so I guess JTWC may further increase the intensity to 155 knots based on consensus subjective Dvorak numbers, meaning that Chaba may smash the record of the northenmost 155-knot tropical cyclone previously set by Hurricane Rita back in 2005.
Meanwhile JMA have upped the intensity to 115 knots with a central pressure of 905 hPa at 09Z. They have issued an emergency warning, the highest level for the warnings, for the islands of Okinawa and Kumejima. Chaba may be the strongest typhoon to hit the Ryukyu Islands ever and I hope the residents there would be safe.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#139 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:29 am

JTWC kept 145 kt due to "off white" eye.

Image

TPPN10 PGTW 031231

A. SUPER TYPHOON 21W (CHABA)

B. 03/1200Z

C. 25.82N

D. 126.76E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT YIELD 7.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Typhoon

#140 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:56 am

Image
Looks like Chaba wont swallow Kumejima, but theyre now in the strong eyewall.
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