WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:50 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 272123

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF GUAM)

B. 27/2100Z

C. 14.60N

D. 149.11E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/1629Z 14.83N 150.05E SSMI
27/1715Z 14.60N 149.80E MMHS
27/2006Z 14.75N 149.23E GPMI


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:56 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 272103
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 27/2030Z

C. 14.8N

D. 149.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED A LLCC LOCATED OVER 1/3DEG
INTO THE COLD OVERCAST. DT=3.5 WHILE MET AND PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON MET
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER FIX LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:58 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:46 pm

Beginning to show up on Guam's radar.

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:49 pm

JTWC agrees with KNES on 3.0...Looking like an upgrade soon.

TPPN11 PGTW 280020

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF GUAM)

B. 28/0000Z

C. 14.35N

D. 148.23E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT. (BROKE CONSTRAINT
OF 0.5 TNO CHANGE IN 6 HRS)

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/2006Z 14.75N 149.23E GPMI
27/2034Z 14.32N 149.12E SSMS


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:17 pm

21W TWENTYONE 160927 1800 14.3N 149.6E WPAC 20 1007

21W Chaba is here...
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:22 pm

JTWC sure likes to take their time to release the first warning... :roll:

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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:38 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (CHABA) WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SATELLITE FIXES FROM
RJTD AND PGTW, AND A 280021Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION GIVEN THE LACK OF A CLEAR,
DEFINITIVE CENTER FEATURE IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS PRIMARILY BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS, WHICH SHOWS A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF
25-30 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), WHICH ARE LIKELY
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH DUE TO FLARING CONVECTION. TD 21W HAS CONTINUED
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
MAINTAINING NEAR THE CENTER, BUT MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ASSESSED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OVER TOP OF TD
21W, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
SUPPORTING THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR 21W AND
SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
B. TD 21W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-
TROPICAL (STR) RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 48, THE STR REORIENTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TD 21W TO MAKE A SLOW TURN TO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEAR TERM AS A TUTT CELL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REDUCING OR ELIMINATING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE TUTT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD IN
PHASE WITH 21W, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. BY AROUND TAU 60, THE TUTT
WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER WILL ENABLE
A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ALL
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A TRACK NORTH OF GUAM IN THE NEAR TERM, AND A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 21W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-
LAYER STR. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 96 AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH THE GFS AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS LEANING TOWARDS A MORE RAPID RECURVE SOUTH OF JAPAN, WHILE
THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOW A TRACK MUCH CLOSER TO TAIWAN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION
OF THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:07 am

It's weird to see JMA so much more aggressive than JTWC, but that's what is happening here. JMA is forecasting a T5.5 storm by the end of day 3 while JTWC doesn't even have Chaba at typhoon strength for another 24 hours. At least one of the agencies is going to bust pretty hard here.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:28 am

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 280407 AAA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHABA (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 1...RESEND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP212016
200 PM CHST WED SEP 28 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHABA FORMS EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 MPH
OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 147.7E

ABOUT 145 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 205 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CHABA WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 147.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. CHABA
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...TAKING IT OVER THE MARIANAS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. CHABA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION
ON THURSDAY. CHABA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:33 am

Image

Loving the heavy rains here. Can it rain any harder? :lol:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
142 PM CHST WED SEP 28 2016

.THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHABA (21W) MAY RESULT IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE MARIANAS.

GUZ001>004-281145-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FA.A.0001.160928T0342Z-160929T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
142 PM CHST WED SEP 28 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CHABA. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS...
ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD-PRONE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS.
THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:35 am

GFS is handling Chaba fairly well track-wise, and was able to use
its winds for tonight and Thursday, after bumping up wind speed a
little. The center of Chaba should pass over or near Rota around
2 or 3 AM tonight. But the main issue is rainfall, with 4 to
8 inches possible tonight and Thursday. Chaba has been producing
a long series of strong thunderstorm outbreaks the last 1-2 days,
and is still doing so this afternoon. If an outbreak fires up
over one of the islands, several inches of rain could fall in a
short time, and as a result have issued a flood advisory through
Thursday. Conditions should improve somewhat Thursday night and
Friday, and showers should become isolated aound Friday evening.

TD Chaba is still not well-organized, as competing convective
outbreaks keep the system from consolidating. This should keep it
from intensifying much overnight, though it could reach low-end
tropical storm early Thursday morning. The highest winds, 25-30 kt,
are north of the center, with only 15-20 kt south of the center.
Chaba is still putting out plenty of lightning with each new
outbreak of convection, which could make for a stormy night for
the Marianas. Rainfall will depend a lot on where the outbreaks
take place, with up to 8 inches possible under the heaviest ones.
With the center expected to pass near or over Rota during the
early morning hours, the highest winds should be over Tinian and
Saipan.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:00 am

Even stronger as per EURO...945 mb and slams it to Japan.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:02 am

Incredible amount of rain falling...
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:17 am

GFS into Tokyo...

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 2:24 am

HWRF drops this down to 947 mb on a similiar track to GFS.
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:04 am

Image

Despite Dvorak at TS strength, JTWC decides to hold it at 30 knots as ASCAT only shows 25 to 30 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE
BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280731Z GPM
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A DEFINED
BUT BROAD LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KNOTS, BELOW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-45 KNOTS, DUE TO A PAIR
OF ASCAT PASSES NEAR 280000Z SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 CELSIUS ARE
FAVORABLE AND WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. TD 21W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DRIVING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
AFTERWARDS, IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING TD CHABA
TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO SPREAD BEYOND TAU 24, AS THEY DEPICT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE STEERING STR AND THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IN
FAVOR OF THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION, SHOWING A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE
AND A LATER TURN TO THE NORTH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 21W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING
STR. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND START THE POLEWARD TURN.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CREATING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THERE IS A POTENTIAL, WITH WARMER SSTS AND INCREASED
OUTFLOW, THAT THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, SHOWING A
500NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THIS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:20 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING IN THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE EIR LOOP SHOWS A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BECOME DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC. THIS IS FURTHER EVIDENT IN A SERIES
OF SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 281128Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS, WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM, ROTA, AND SAIPAN, AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM
GUAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLAND CHAIN AND
REFLECTS THE POORLY DEFINED LLCC IN A 280926Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. TD CHABA IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR 29 CELSIUS ARE
FAVORABLE. TD 21W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DRIVING THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
AFTERWARDS, IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING TD CHABA
TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BEYOND TAU 24, AS THEY DEPICT
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STEERING STR AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORM. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION, SHOWING
A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE AND A LATER TURN TO THE NORTH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 21W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING
STR. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND TURN POLEWARD. INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, CREATING A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TD CHABA MAY
UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO WARMER SSTS, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
INCREASED OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD CONTINUES TO GROW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, NOW SHOWING A 650NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THIS
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 1:02 pm

Center looks about here based on radar.

Image
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Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:58 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 281519
TCSWNP

A. 21W (CHABA)

B. 28/1430Z

C. 14.0N

D. 144.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEARED PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A
CENTER BENEATH A VERY SMALL OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET=2.0 AND
PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SYSTEM'S LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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