WPAC: CHABA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:58 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 281833

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (CHABA)

B. 28/1800Z

C. 14.20N

D. 144.20E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

dhoeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 130
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:32 am
Location: Manila, Philippines

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby dhoeze » Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:10 pm

Ot
So sorry gurus, been missing for the past 2 years. Saw that the ECMWF link before that shows/simulates storms over WPAC for the next 7 days is already down.
Do you guys have a new link please or other sources which will show forecasted track/development for the next 7 days?

here was the old link I used before
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... %21%21step

Appreciate the help so I can monitor again systems like Chaba... thank you!!
0 likes   
"Productivity is never an accident. It is always the result of a commitment to excellence, intelligent planning, and focused effort."

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2944
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 28, 2016 7:40 pm

dhoeze wrote:Ot
So sorry gurus, been missing for the past 2 years. Saw that the ECMWF link before that shows/simulates storms over WPAC for the next 7 days is already down.
Do you guys have a new link please or other sources which will show forecasted track/development for the next 7 days?

here was the old link I used before
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... %21%21step

Appreciate the help so I can monitor again systems like Chaba... thank you!!



You should start using tropicaltidbits.com. The outputs of all the top global models, including the ECMWF, are plotted there. :D
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:21 pm

Guidance is a little wishy-washy with Chaba in terms of intensity. Some runs show it becoming somewhat potent while others keep it rather weak. The magnitude of subtropical ridging is expected to remain rather robust for the next couple days (lots of 500 mb heights >591 dam to Chaba's north), and the resulting subsidence may slow Chaba's intensification down a bit, at least in the beginning.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:52 pm

Chaba is beginning to look more like a conventional Tropical Storm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:44 am

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:23 am

Imagek

kWDPN32 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290603Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE LLCC IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST
TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS CHABA IS TRACKING GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE STR WILL STEER TS CHABA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE RE-
ORIENTS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION WILL COMMENCE AS POLEWARD OUTFLFOW
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING TUTT CELL TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. TS CHABA IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
GREATLY BEYOND TAU 72, WITH THE GFS AND JGSM REMAINING ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH THE NAVGEM AND ECMFW TO THE LEFT
OF CONSENSUS. AT THIS TIME, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS TO
THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120 BASED
ON RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE NAVGEM AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS. THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUAL RECURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STR. VWS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND ACCOMPANIED BY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 96. DUE TO THE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNNkk
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:34 am

Quick question.

How does Chaba 35 knots with much more intense convection be weaker than Matthew 55 knots? Both storms have the storm's center in the northeast and southwest of the strongest convection. Oh the glory of recon.

Image

Image

And it's not sheared, only 5-10 knots and decreasing.

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:24 am

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:31 am

euro6208 wrote:Quick question.

How does Chaba 35 knots with much more intense convection be weaker than Matthew 55 knots? Both storms have the storm's center in the northeast and southwest of the strongest convection. Oh the glory of recon.

[images removed]

And it's not sheared, only 5-10 knots and decreasing.

[image removed]

Trade wind acceleration in the eastern Caribbean Sea between the Greater Antilles and South America may be augmenting winds on the north side of Matthew some. The difference between night and day is also playing a part in their convective presentation.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2335
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:15 am

Image
I dont know the accuracy of this ASCAT METOP -B pass but Chaba is now at 40 knots :darrow:

21W CHABA 160929 1200 14.1N 140.0E WPAC 40 1001

How does Chaba 35 knots with much more intense convection be weaker than Matthew 55 knots? Both storms have the storm's center in the northeast and southwest of the strongest convection. Oh the glory of recon.


I don't know what you mean but tropical cyclone's intensity is mainly measured thru its wind and pressure - not just by convection or whether it's sheared or not.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 10:33 am

mrbagyo wrote:Image
I dont know the accuracy of this ASCAT METOP -B pass but Chaba is now at 40 knots :darrow:

21W CHABA 160929 1200 14.1N 140.0E WPAC 40 1001

How does Chaba 35 knots with much more intense convection be weaker than Matthew 55 knots? Both storms have the storm's center in the northeast and southwest of the strongest convection. Oh the glory of recon.


I don't know what you mean but tropical cyclone's intensity is mainly measured thru its wind and pressure - not just by convection or whether it's sheared or not.

That ASCAT pass is now over 12 hours old. The new ones (both METOP A and B) managed to perfectly avoid Chaba.

Image

In the meantime, Dvorak looks good to me. I'd probably be at about 45 kt right now, which is a verbatim T3.0.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:18 pm

Not a fan of SAB's use of the shear matrix. Curved banding looks much more appropriate to me here.

TXPQ22 KNES 291455
TCSWNP

A. 21W (CHABA)

B. 29/1430Z

C. 13.7N

D. 139.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES UNDER LARGE COLD OVERCAST
YIELDS SHEAR MATRIX DT=2.0. MET AND PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI


Image

*EDIT: It may have been more appropriate at 1430Z when that analysis was made, but I still would have used curved band.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:52 pm

Image
Image

Cat 3 over Okinawa.

WDPN32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
THAT HAS RECENTLY EVOLVED INTO A BANDING FEATURE, DEFINITIVELY
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE COMBINED WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES PGTW AND RJTD REPORTING
T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING RADIAL
OUTFLOW, TAPPING INTO A STREAM OF STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
FLOWING INTO A FORMING TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
VERY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TS CHABA IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS CHABA WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE TURNING NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SUPPORTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST NEAR TAU 72 WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE. TS
CHABA WILL BEGIN TO DECELERATE BRIEFLY AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERN TRACK INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS WILL
WEAKEN TS CHABA, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR TAU
120. MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT BEYOND TAU 72 AS THE
SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. NAVGEM AND ECMWF ARE THE FAR WESTWARD
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A WIDER AND SLOWER TURN AS A RESULT OF A WEAKER
TROUGH AND PRONOUNCED STEERING RIDGE. NAVGEM AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN
INCONSISTENCY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW CYCLES, WHILE
GFS, COAMPS-TC, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
TRACKERS BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:15 pm

Chaba is struggling a little bit right now. Not 100% sure of the cause, but I'd guess some subsidence on the north side.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:29 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 971 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
SATELLITE FIXES AND A 292150Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING FRAGMENTED
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS AND IS BASED
ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO
T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING RADIAL
OUTFLOW, TAPPING INTO A STREAM OF STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH,
FLOWING INTO A FORMING TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
VERY LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TS CHABA IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN, HOWEVER MINOR TRACK CHANGES REFLECT A
SLOWER TRACK SPEED AND SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
B. TS CHABA WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE TURNING NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, SUPPORTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST NEAR TAU 72 WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE. TS
CHABA WILL BEGIN TO DECELERATE BRIEFLY AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR TAU 96, SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERN TRACK INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS WILL
WEAKEN TS CHABA, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN NEAR TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASED DIVERGENCE IN BOTH
THE NEAR-TERM TRACK AND THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. NAVGEM AND GFDN
ARE THE FAR WESTWARD OUTLIERS SHOWING A MUCH WIDER TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE UKMET AND HWRF SOLUTIONS ARE THE FAR EASTWARD
OUTLIERS SHOWING A TIGHTER TURN. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND COAMPS-TC
SOLUTIONS FALL NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS WHERE THE
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED. DUE TO THE MODEL DIVERGENCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:29 am

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5244
Age: 28
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Severe Tropical Storm

#58 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:31 am

JMA up to a Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1618 (Chaba)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 30 September 2016

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 30 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°35' (13.6°)
E137°00' (137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 30 September>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E135°35' (135.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E134°05' (134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 2 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N21°10' (21.2°)
E130°25' (130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 3 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N25°50' (25.8°)
E128°05' (128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 370 km (200 NM)
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:35 am

Peak. Misses Okinawa but goes to Western Japan.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: CHABA - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:55 am

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests