CPAC: ULIKA - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:52 pm

WTPA42 PHFO 270242
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192016
500 PM HST MON SEP 26 2016

The satellite presentation has shown little sign of improving
organization today as the depression remains embedded within a
roughly west to east oriented trough. Deep convection decreased
since last night and has yet to consolidate near the center, though
the circulation is fairly well defined on visible imagery. Dvorak
current intensity estimates range from a 1.5 from JTWC to a 2.0 out
of HFO and SAB to 2.5 from TAFB. An ASCAT pass from this morning
clipped the western portion of the circulation and showed some 30 kt
wind retrievals within 30 nm of the center. Given this data and the
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

Some intensification is expected during the next day or so as the
system remains over 82C SSTs. A diffluent westerly flow aloft will
provide outflow, though it will also produce some vertical wind
shear, and the system will remain embedded within a roughly west to
east oriented trough in the short term. These factors should allow
for some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Vertical
wind shear is forecast to increase on Wednesday as the system moves
closer to an upper level trough, leading to rapid weakening to a
remnant low by Friday. The intensity forecast closely follows the
prior advisory and is close to SHIPS.

A slow northward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
The system remains embedded within a west to east oriented trough,
and although surface high pressure is parked far to the north near
34N, a weak mid to upper level trough sits just the north of the
cyclone. The resulting weak steering flow is expected to produce a
north to north-northeastward drift during the next couple of days.
The weakening and increasingly shallow system will likely then make
a gradual turn toward the west on Thursday through Saturday as the
low level trade wind flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism.
The track forecast was changed little from the prior advisory and
runs through the middle of the guidance envelope close to the GFEX.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 11.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.3N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 13.0N 139.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 13.9N 139.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 14.8N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 16.1N 139.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 16.9N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 145.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Wroe
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:55 pm

I'm not too sure about the lack of deep convection near the centre ...

Image
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:56 pm

Some intensification is expected during the next day or so as the
system remains over 82C SSTs.


Rather steamy water there! :ggreen: :ggreen: :cheesy:
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:01 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192016
500 PM HST MON SEP 26 2016

The satellite presentation has shown little sign of improving
organization today as the depression remains embedded within a
roughly west to east oriented trough. Deep convection decreased
since last night and has yet to consolidate near the center, though
the circulation is fairly well defined on visible imagery. Dvorak
current intensity estimates range from a 1.5 from JTWC to a 2.0 out
of HFO and SAB to 2.5 from TAFB. An ASCAT pass from this morning
clipped the western portion of the circulation and showed some 30 kt
wind retrievals within 30 nm of the center. Given this data and the
Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

Some intensification is expected during the next day or so as the
system remains over 82C SSTs. A diffluent westerly flow aloft will
provide outflow, though it will also produce some vertical wind
shear, and the system will remain embedded within a roughly west to
east oriented trough in the short term. These factors should allow
for some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Vertical
wind shear is forecast to increase on Wednesday as the system moves
closer to an upper level trough, leading to rapid weakening to a
remnant low by Friday. The intensity forecast closely follows the
prior advisory and is close to SHIPS.

A slow northward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
The system remains embedded within a west to east oriented trough,
and although surface high pressure is parked far to the north near
34N, a weak mid to upper level trough sits just the north of the
cyclone. The resulting weak steering flow is expected to produce a
north to north-northeastward drift during the next couple of days.
The weakening and increasingly shallow system will likely then make
a gradual turn toward the west on Thursday through Saturday as the
low level trade wind flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism.
The track forecast was changed little from the prior advisory and
runs through the middle of the guidance envelope close to the GFEX.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 11.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.3N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 13.0N 139.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 13.9N 139.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 14.8N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 16.1N 139.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 16.9N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 145.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Wroe
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby bg1 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:26 pm

CPHC Discussion wrote:
82C SSTs

:double: I know the Central Pacific has been very favorable as of late, but this is ridiculous!
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:45 pm

Heh, forget about conditional instability...
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:33 am

Image

More than likely a TS now.

We have Ulika. Glad they bypassed SABs 2.0.
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:33 am

This should be Ulika now...
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Re: CPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:46 am

WTPA42 PHFO 270902
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192016
1100 PM HST MON SEP 26 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical cyclone has become
better organized this evening, with deep convection now in place
over the low level circulation center. The latest Dvorak intensity
estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC range from 2.0/30kt to 2.5/35kt,
with the ADT from UW-CIMSS showing 2.9/43kt. Based on a
combination of the satellite classifications, steady improvement in
satellite appearance since a 26/1845Z ASCAT pass showing 30 kt
winds, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ulika
(oo-Lee-kah), with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Ulika is the first
system to develop in the Central Pacific during the regular 2016
tropical cyclone season.

The initial motion of the system is based on satellite animations,
and is set at 350 at 3 kt. The system is expected to track slowly
northward tonight, then make a turn toward the northeast into a
weakness in the mid and upper-level ridge resulting from an upper
level low to the north of the cyclone on Tuesday. This motion should
continue for the next couple of days until increasing westerly
vertical wind shear results in a more shallow system steered by the
low level trade winds toward the west Wednesday night and Thursday.
The system is expected to continue on a westward track with a
gradual increase in forward speed through the end of the week, and
weaken into a remnant low Thursday night or Friday. The official
forecast track is very close to that of the previous advisory,
and is on the western side of the multi-model consensus guidance.

Some intensification is expected during the next 24 hours or so as
the system remains over 28C SSTs and vertical wind shear
over the system decreases. Vertical wind shear is then forecast to
increase Wednesday and Wednesday night as upper level winds
strengthen over the system. This should lead to slow and steady
weakening, with the tropical cyclone becoming a remnant low by
late Friday. The intensity forecast is close to the previous
advisory and aligned well with a blend of SHIPS, IVCN, and HWRF
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 12.1N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 12.7N 140.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 13.5N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 14.5N 139.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 15.2N 139.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 16.5N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 17.0N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 17.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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Re: CPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 27, 2016 5:59 am

Image

Hm.

CDO is well established and there are hints of warm spots popping up. Could be trying to clear an eye. Only problem is that it looks like that the eye might be too large allowing for cracks and eventual dry air entrainment which is abundant to it's north.
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Image

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Re: CPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:12 am

WTPA42 PHFO 271532
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP192016
500 AM HST TUE SEP 27 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Ulika (oo-Lee-kah)
has become better organized overnight, with persistent deep
convection being maintained over the low-level circulation center.
Microwave imagery from a 27/1029Z GCOM and 27/1210Z AMSUB pass
support a strengthening system, showing an eyewall feature
developing. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB,
and JTWC range from 2.0/30kt to 3.0/45kt, with the ADT from UW-CIMSS
showing 3.3/51kt. Based on the improving satellite presentation, the
initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt with this advisory.

The initial motion of the system is based on satellite
animations, and is set at 035 degrees at 4 kt. The system is
expected to continue to track toward the northeast, into a weakness
in the mid and upper-level ridge resulting from an upper level low
to the north of the cyclone, through tonight. Ulika is expected to
make a turn toward the north on Wednesday and Wednesday night,
followed by a turn toward the west Thursday as increasing westerly
vertical wind shear results in a more shallow system steered by the
low level trade wind flow. The system is expected to continue on a
westward track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the
end of the week, and weaken into a remnant low on Friday or Friday
night. The official forecast track has been nudged to the east of of
the previous advisory due to the increasingly deep and stronger
system, and is close to the multi-model GFEX and TVCN consensus
guidance.

Some intensification of Ulika is expected during the next 12 to 24
hours as the system remains over 28C SSTs, with minimal dry air
entrainment and weak vertical wind shear. In fact, SHIPS guidance
shows a 35 percent probability of rapid intensification of 25 kt or
more in 24 hours, so the system could increase more than currently
forecast. Wind shear is then forecast to increase Wednesday through
Thursday as upper level winds strengthen over the system. This
should lead to steady weakening, with the tropical cyclone becoming
a remnant low Friday or Friday night. The intensity forecast was
adjusted upward from the previous advisory and follows a blend of
the SHIPS, IVCN and HWRF guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 12.4N 140.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 12.9N 139.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 13.8N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 14.7N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.6N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 16.8N 141.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 17.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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Re: CPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:54 pm

Tropical Storm Ulika has crossed into the eastern Pacific basin, and the National Hurricane Center will issue the next advisory on this system this afternoon.


The TWO says Ulika is one of the rare storms to cross 140°W twice, and it could do it again in a few days.
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Re: CPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby kala » Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:32 pm

It does look like an eye is trying to clear. I think this thing could reach hurricane strength.

Image
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Re: CPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:13 pm

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 272033
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Ulika has become a little better organized during the past several
hours with the formation of a ragged central dense overcast in
visible imagery and the continued presence of an eye in GPM data
near 1530 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
55 kt and 45 kt respectively, and based on these data the initial
intensity is raised to 50 kt.

The initial motion is 045/4. Ulika is currently being steered by a
mid- to upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery near 18N 143W.
The dynamical models forecast this feature to move westward to
northwestward during the next 48 hours or so. This should allow
the subtropical ridge to rebuild east and north of Ulika, which in
turn should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and
northwestward. After that time, Ulika should be steered more
westward by the low-level trade winds as it weakens. The new
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the
center of the track guidance envelope.

Ulika is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of northwesterly vertical
wind shear. This shear should abate somewhat during the next 24
hours or so while the cyclone remains over warm sea surface
temperatures. Based on these expected conditions, the intensity
forecast calls for continued slow strengthening. Subsequently, Ulika
is forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear which should
persist through the end of the forecast period. All of the guidance
forecast weakening with dissipation near or just after 120 hours,
and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The new intensity
forecast is an update of the previous forecast with a slightly
higher peak intensity, and overall it is in best agreement with the
intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 12.7N 139.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 13.5N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.4N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.1N 139.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 17.0N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 17.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: CPAC: NINETEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby Iune » Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:24 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Hope it gets named when it moves back into the EPAC because I want to see if the list could get exhausted or not.

Funny thing is that I was hoping that it would get a CPac name as I want the CPac list to be exhausted sooner :P
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Re: CPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:18 pm

Oh no, just look at that bone dry air it's headed into! :eek: :eek: :eek:

Convection is already starting to wane ... :(

Image
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Re: EPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:36 pm

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Re: EPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 9:42 pm

It strengthened! :D

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Ulika continues to maintain a small but well organized central dense
overcast. Geostationary satellite images indicate that the inner
core of the cyclone has become a little better organized during the
last several hours, and there are some hints of an eye feature in
the imagery. An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago revealed
maximum winds in the 50 to 55 kt range. Based on that data and a
Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial wind speed is increased
to 55 kt. Ulika is expected to remain in generally favorable
environmental conditions for another 12 to 24 hours, and the system
could be near hurricane strength overnight and early Wednesday.
Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly or
westerly shear should cause a steady weakening trend. Ulika is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days, but some of the
models suggest that the system could open up into a trough by then.
This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Ulika is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a
mid- to upper-level low. The upper low is expected to move slowly
westward, which should cause the storm to turn northward on
Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday. After that time, Ulika
is expected to become a shallow cyclone, and it will likely turn
west-northwestward or westward in the low-level trade wind flow.
The models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, and only
a small shift to the right was made in the new NHC track forecast.
This prediction is in best agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 13.3N 139.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: ULIKA - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:50 pm

Image

Not bad considering all the dry air.
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Re: EPAC: ULIKA - Hurricane

#40 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:42 am

Ulika becomes a hurricane, the twelfth of the season!!! :D :D :D

HURRICANE ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016
200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016

Ulika has continued to improve in organization, and recent microwave
data have shown that the cyclone has maintained a well-defined eye
in the 89-GHz channel during the past few hours. Hints of an eye
have also been observed in shortwave infrared imagery, embedded
within a compact central dense overcast. Subjective satellite
intensity estimates have risen to T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.0/55
kt from SAB, and the objective ADT from UW-CIMSS is even higher
around 75 kt. A couple of CIMSS AMSU intensity estimates also
provided values of 60-65 kt several hours ago. Based on these
data, Ulika is upgraded to a hurricane with 65-kt winds, and this
could be conservative.

Ulika has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours, which in
hindsight was probably helped by the cyclone's small wind field and
radius of maximum winds. Vertical shear is expected to remain low
for another 12 hours or so, which could allow Ulika to intensify
some more in the short term. By 24 hours, however, southwesterly
to westerly vertical shear is forecast to increase markedly,
exceeding 30 kt in a couple of days. Given Ulika's small size, the
cyclone will be particularly sensitive to the increase in shear,
and its intensity is likely to decrease quickly. Ulika is expected
to become a remnant low by day 4 and then dissipate southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is very
close to the intensity consensus for the entire forecast period, and
is higher than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to
account for Ulika's recent intensification trend.

A mid- to upper-level low northwest of Ulika is steering the
hurricane north-northeastward, or 030/6 kt. Ulika is expected to
turn northward and northwestward around this feature during the next
couple of days. After it becomes a weaker system, it should then
come under greater influence from the low-level trades, turning
west-northwestward and westward on days 3 and 4. With the
exception of the GFDL, which is well north of the rest of the
guidance suite, all of the track models are tightly clustered
during the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is therefore
close to the various consensus aids and not too different from
the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 13.9N 139.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 14.7N 138.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 15.6N 139.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 16.4N 139.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 17.0N 140.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 17.7N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 17.7N 147.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


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