ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#1 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:30 pm

243
WHXX01 KWBC 250428
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0428 UTC SUN SEP 25 2016

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972016) 20160925 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
160925 0000 160925 1200 160926 0000 160926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.5N 33.8W 8.0N 35.6W 8.8N 37.4W 9.7N 39.5W
BAMD 7.5N 33.8W 7.7N 36.4W 8.1N 38.8W 8.4N 41.1W
BAMM 7.5N 33.8W 7.8N 36.4W 8.2N 38.7W 8.7N 40.9W
LBAR 7.5N 33.8W 7.8N 36.4W 8.4N 39.3W 8.6N 42.1W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
160927 0000 160928 0000 160929 0000 160930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 41.8W 12.3N 46.9W 13.2N 53.2W 13.9N 58.1W
BAMD 8.7N 43.3W 9.3N 48.1W 9.1N 53.3W 8.5N 57.1W
BAMM 9.2N 43.2W 10.3N 48.2W 10.9N 53.6W 11.0N 57.9W
LBAR 9.3N 44.9W 10.8N 51.1W 12.4N 55.9W 12.0N 60.3W
SHIP 51KTS 79KTS 103KTS 116KTS
DSHP 51KTS 79KTS 103KTS 116KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.5N LONCUR = 33.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 7.5N LONM12 = 31.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.5N LONM24 = 29.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: Invest 97L Models

#2 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:32 pm

UKMET significantly stronger at 0Z

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.9N 51.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2016 72 13.2N 53.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 28.09.2016 84 13.1N 56.5W 1005 39
0000UTC 29.09.2016 96 13.3N 59.1W 999 51
1200UTC 29.09.2016 108 12.9N 61.9W 992 59
0000UTC 30.09.2016 120 12.7N 63.8W 982 65
1200UTC 30.09.2016 132 12.5N 65.0W 978 69
0000UTC 01.10.2016 144 12.2N 66.2W 974 67
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Re: Invest 97L Models

#3 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:40 pm

902 mb over Grand Cayman. Far worse than Ivan
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Re: Invest 97L Models

#4 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:40 pm

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Re: Invest 97L Models

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:40 pm

899mb @ 222hrs. the 00z GFS. :crazyeyes:

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 97L Models

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:40 pm

I have this awful feeling that this thread may be one we will be looking at for a long time...and this storm may be very memorable for someone.
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Re: Invest 97L Models

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I have this awful feeling that this thread may be one we will be looking at for a long time...and this storm may be very memorable for someone.

Yeah if the 00z Euro remains on board tonight it may be game on. :eek:
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Models

#8 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:42 pm

Sub 900 um yea right...GFS thinks this west-pac
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Re: Invest 97L Models

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:43 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:899mb @ 222hrs. the 00z GFS. :crazyeyes:

[img]http://i66.tinypic.com/4joxua.jpg[img]


Glad it's 10 days out.

Can't wait for the Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:43 pm

Bottoms out @ 898mb @ 228hrs.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#11 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:43 pm

CMC is far too slow with this, as well as far too north. Ends up recurving it into the DR and then east of Bermuda
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Models

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:Sub 900 um yea right...GFS thinks this west-pac


but if theres anywhere in the basin where it could do something like that its in the NW Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:44 pm

Considering the timing, I would think the GFS bottoms this out between those two positions around 895mb. That would be the 4th or 5th most intense storm ever in the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:44 pm

The moment when the GFS goes sub-900 for an ATL storm... I've been waiting 18 months for this
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Models

#15 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:45 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Sub 900 um yea right...GFS thinks this west-pac


but if theres anywhere in the basin where it could do something like that its in the NW Caribbean

And this could be the year with waters and TCHP's higher than 2005.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:46 pm

Image

5 days of Non-stop RI.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:47 pm

I know this is crazy talk, but how do the conditions there compare to Patricia last year?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#18 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:47 pm

Gulf coast it seems here
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: Invest 97L - Models

#19 Postby znel52 » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:Sub 900 um yea right...GFS thinks this west-pac

Yeah because a sub 900 storm has never happened in the Atlantic.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#20 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 24, 2016 11:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:http://i.imgur.com/U3dHgJV.gif

5 days of Non-stop RI.

Here's why.

Image
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