ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[RL3AO]

If the environment is as favorable as many sources suggest, there is a chance the no cat 5 streak ends in 7 to 10 days.

[Ntxw]

I know this is crazy talk, but how do the conditions there compare to Patricia last year?

Shear overall in the Caribbean hasn't been bad at all. Waters are plenty warm, I wouldn't be so fast to compare it to a Patricia as it will require near perfect upper level conditions to go sub 900mb. We'll know if it goes big if it has very deep cold convection early on like Patricia and many other WPAC systems do before EI

[SFLcane]

Ok now Katrina 2 lol...you guys have fun.

[TheStormExpert]

If the environment is as favorable as many sources suggest, there is a chance the no cat 5 streak ends in 7 to 10 days.

I know it's still far out but there could even be the potential of the 10+ U.S. Major Hurricane Drought coming to an end as well within the next 2 weeks.

[Hurricaneman]

right around Pensacola as a cat 4 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ok now Katrina 2 lol...you guys have fun.

Don't let other struggling storms throw your guard off. It only takes the perfect conditions for one storm in the right area to it turn into 2005 for a few days. Maybe not sub 900 but a major cannot be ruled out.

[Hurricaneman]

We'll lets see what the Euro shows before going all in for a possible landfall point on maybe even Jamaica

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS has it remain a hurricane quite far inland with it being so strong and moving fast. This run actually gives Atlanta something similar to Opal of 1995!

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is if the GFS is right Atlanta would get more with this than they got with Opal

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[txwatcher91]

The GFS has done pretty good with TS development and strength this year. It's forecast many of the systems we've tracked to remain weak and heavily sheared while at times the Euro has been incredibly bullish. The fact that the GFS is now extremely bullish for this system and other models are in fairly good agreement also tells me we will probably have quite the system to deal with.

[Ivanhater]

Another scary run for NW Florida

[Alyono]

I know this is crazy talk, but how do the conditions there compare to Patricia last year?

Shear overall in the Caribbean hasn't been bad at all. Waters are plenty warm, I wouldn't be so fast to compare it to a Patricia as it will require near perfect upper level conditions to go sub 900mb. We'll know if it goes big if it has very deep cold convection early on like Patricia and many other WPAC systems do before EI

Patricia also had a massive trough aiding its extreme intensity

[boca]

I know it's way too early but I'm feeling good that S Fla will not have affects from this storm as per the models due to the ridging

[LarryWx]

The thing is if the GFS is right Atlanta would get more with this than they got with Opal

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

On second look, I think you're right with the center going right over Atlanta as opposed to Opal's center being nearly 100 miles to the west. Opal was bad enough. Imagine if this track were to happen to verify (very unlikely, of course) how bad Atlanta and vicinity would get hit. Hammy (east of Atlanta) would get hit real hard being to the east of the center.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I know it's way too early but I'm feeling good that S Fla will not have affects from this storm as per the models due to the ridging

As of now it looks like we have dodged another bullet. As of now..

[LarryWx]

I know it's way too early but I'm feeling good that S Fla will not have affects from this storm as per the models due to the ridging

Do NOT get complacent about this one. You/FL peninusla are far from being in the clear. We're talking probably at least 11 days out (still way out there) and sharp recurves in early Oct. are common.

[Ivanhater]

This is still so far out in the Atlantic...with the models this year..do we really think the next 8 days will show the same solution? I think not...

[bamajammer4eva]

I KNOW this map is wrong but I'm curious as to why the GFS does this with tropical systems showing them not penetrating inland very much at all. By the time the storm is near Atlanta (12 hrs later), there are only 35kt winds associated with it.

[wxmann_91]

The friction from the land slows down the winds (compared to what they are over water). Then after the TC moves inland, the TC weakens and the pressure gradients relax, further decreasing wind speed.

[boca]

I was looking at the ridging and how the teleconnetics are in play from reading what Steve wrote and it does't seem a trough or low pressure will pull this north to South Florida, but around it to the panhandle.Thats my feeling.We are very lucky and I feel the streak will continue unless the ridge breaks down which I don't see happening.