ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

that looks like a catastrophic flood for northern Columbia on the EC

[bamajammer4eva]

Wow so it stalls for nearly 24 hrs practically over high terrain land and drops 5MB

[sma10]

00z Euro @ 144hr

Will be very interesting to follow this trend. Both the Euro and UK want to dive the system SW as it strengthens in hr 144. If it get too tied up in Colombia it could disrupt the system a bit. I recall a similar storm, I think Bret in 1993 doing this, and really damaged the circulation. Just something to look for...

[USTropics]

00z Euro @ 144hr

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_7.png

Will be very interesting to follow this trend. Both the Euro and UK want to dive the system SW as it strengthens in hr 144. If it get too tied up in Colombia it could disrupt the system a bit. I recall a similar storm, I think Bret in 1993 doing this, and really damaged the circulation. Just something to look for...

August 7–9, 1993 - Tropical Storm Bret moves across northern Venezuela and Colombia. In Venezuela, the storm drops at least 13.35 inches (339 mm) in Guanare. The rainfall causes mudslides, particularly near the city of Caracas, that cover many low-income housing units. Of the 173 deaths caused by Bret in Venezuela, most occur in the low-income areas near Caracas. Lack of preparation, including weather forecasters prematurely stating the worst of the storm is over, is part of the problem. In all, 10,000 are left homeless, and damaged totals $25 million (1993 USD, $37 million 2008 USD). In Colombia, Bret causes one death and one injury.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_South_America_tropical_cyclones

[Kingarabian]

Heading north @ hr 192

[Kingarabian]

Hopefully this run is the beginning of the end to the previous doomsday hurricane runs.

[Hurricaneman]

seems to be following closer to the mean of the GFS Ensembles runs

[sma10]

I think this run may mark the end of the short-lived Euro/GFS bromance.

[Ivanhater]

Very odd stall...very different from previous runs

[LarryWx]

Alyono, I may want to take you up on your 100-1 odds against an east of Bermuda track. Although still unlikely, it is suddenly looking more tempting.

[wxmann_91]

seems to be following closer to the mean of the GFS Ensembles runs

East of GEFS, but following the east trend by it and other models...

[Kingarabian]

On it's way to its date with shredder:

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensemble tracks, some do support this type of track:

[Kingarabian]

Most do

[WeatherEmperor]

Hits hispanola going straight North. Makes the earlier Canadian run not look so stupid afterall


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[Alyono]

Alyono, I may want to take you up on your 100-1 odds against an east of Bermuda track. Although still unlikely, it is suddenly looking more tempting.

wouldn't verify as this looks like it wants to make history in Haiti. That is west of Bermuda

[Alyono]

Hits hispanola going straight North. Makes the earlier Canadian run not look so stupid afterall


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No, the Canadian run is very stupid. Look when it brings this into the Caribbean. It is developing the wrong area of vorticity

[Kingarabian]

Very odd stall...very different from previous runs

Pretty much timing. A faster system means the low moving across the CONUS will pick it up too late. Slower system will allow it to escape.

[Ivanhater]

Very odd stall...very different from previous runs

Pretty much timing. A faster system means the low moving across the CONUS will pick it up too late. Slower system will allow it to escape.

But that far south would have to mean a huge pattern change to dig the flow north that far south in the Caribbean

[Alyono]

Very odd stall...very different from previous runs

Pretty much timing. A faster system means the low moving across the CONUS will pick it up too late. Slower system will allow it to escape.

But that far south would have to mean a huge pattern change to dig the flow north that far south in the Caribbean

The EC will probably have the next run as a repeat of Joan. It has zero run to run consistency. It's their paramaterization. It is no better than the GFDL now