ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ivanhater]

More curious about the 500mb chart..looks like a massive high coming down the central U.S.

[HurricaneEric]

120hr: down to 1001mb

[wxmann_91]

Euro at Day 5 is over ABC Islands. A tad slower, a tad further south than the GFS, a tad stronger 500mb ridge to its north.

[LarryWx]

Looking a bit weaker...wonder if this could a forming storm approaching the Islands or does it wait for the Caribbean

It wouldn't at all surprise me if it is still not a TC as it enters the Caribbean. Look at how weak Hermine was when it got there. However, this lack of development til later would actually increase my concern for the CONUS since it would likely mean less chance for a safe recurve east of the US.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro @ hour 120. Slower than the GFS now.

[USTropics]

3mb lower as well.

00z Euro @ hour 120. Slower than the GFS now.
http://i.imgur.com/hgw9NRX.png

[Kingarabian]

3mb stronger as well.

00z Euro @ hour 120. Slower than the GFS now.
http://i.imgur.com/hgw9NRX.png

Same intensity if you look at high-res.

[Ivanhater]

Looking a bit weaker...wonder if this could a forming storm approaching the Islands or does it wait for the Caribbean

It wouldn't at all surprise me if it is still not a TC as it enters the Caribbean. Look at how weak Hermine was when it got there. However, this lack of development til later would actually increase my concern for the CONUS since it would likely mean less chance for a safe recurve east of the US.

I agree Larry...most models.have a full blown major once in the NW Caribbean. ..this might be the one

[Kingarabian]

More curious about the 500mb chart..looks like a massive high coming down the central U.S.

[Ivanhater]

Or a massive low

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has a stronger ridge compared to the 00z GFS:

[HurricaneEric]

00z Euro @ 144hr

[USTropics]

That's the furthest south I've seen the ECMWF getting, I think it's actually moving through the Gulf of Venezuela.

[Alyono]

strong TS or a hurricane plowing into Columbia

[bamajammer4eva]

Stronger High crashes it into South America but still stronger than last run

[Ivanhater]

This run just added Venezuela and Columbia in play

[Alyono]

there is a 19,000 foot mountain nearby. Strange things happen to TCs near it. They either die like Bret in 1993 nearly did, or they blow up rapidly, like Joan did

[Kingarabian]

That's the furthest south I've seen the ECMWF getting, I think it's actually moving through the Gulf of Venezuela.

Yes, at 150hrs it's right in there.

[Kingarabian]

Beginning to lift out @ hr 168.

[USTropics]

Based on climatology, northern Venezuela and Colombia have a 1 to 5% chance of a hurricane strike in any given year, while all locations south of 10° N have less than a 1% chance of a direct hit.

The last two hurricanes to effect Venezuela are Emily in 2005 and Ivan in 2004.

July 14, 2005 - Hurricane Emily passes just north of Venezuela as a strengthening hurricane, causing heavy rains and flooding in the northeastern portion of the country. 64 families were forced to leave their homes when rivers in eastern Monagas state overflowed their banks, but waters quickly receded. Ships were forced to remain at port while the hurricane passed to the country's north, though restrictions quickly lifted.

September 7–9, 2004 - Hurricane Ivan parallels the north coast of Venezuela as a Category 4 hurricane. Ivan's strong winds forced the closure of several airports. The hurricane also produced heavy rainfall and strong waves. Ivan killed three in the country, though overall damage was minor.

The last hurricane to make landfall in Venezuela was 1933 I believe.

June 27, 1933 - A minimal hurricane moves through northeastern Venezuela. The hurricane destroys several houses, businesses, and fishing boats. Powerful winds cut telephonic and telegraphic communications for several days. The hurricane killed several people, and caused over $200,000 in damage (1933 USD, $3.3 million 2008 USD)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_South_America_tropical_cyclones