ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I'm quite happy with models performance, yes there were flip flops for whatever reasons, but basic path was nailed days ago
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12Z Euro
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages!
If it weren't for the GIV Missions sampling the environment around Matthew we would of been screwed in Florida despite Matthew riding the extreme right side of the forecast cone last minute.
Models had Matthew riding up the Florida coast for over a week. How would you have been screwed?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Blinhart wrote:cajungal wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:The GFS has this circling back to the Yucatan into the BOC
By then it will be nothing left. And won't be in a favorable area to reorganize.
We can only hope, but the models have been horrible with intensity and size so we won't know for at least another 5 days on size and strength.
Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages!
If it weren't for the GIV Missions sampling the environment around Matthew we would of been screwed in Florida despite Matthew riding the extreme right side of the forecast cone last minute.
Models had Matthew riding up the Florida coast for over a week. How would you have been screwed?
Yeah. It's not the like models, and therefore the NHC, nailed Matthew's path since before he struck Haiti or anything...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I'm not happy that the models had it coming farther into shore than occurred, but I'd rather have them err on the side of caution and dodge a bullet. I'm happy that my top winds went from the forecast of around 90 or so to about 56 actual because of the last minute east movement. They were never more than 50 or so miles off for the past 3-5 days even if they were making me too nervous. Considering how slow the storm was moving and the crazy changing atmospheric conditions to the north and east of it, I think they did a pretty good job.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Euro and GFS now agree on full loop albeit weak reflection in 5 days.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The models nailed it in my opinion... Being off a bit as it went east of forecast is still amazing because they were not off by a lot at all. Thankfully, it was enough east to spare most of our coast especially in PB and Treasure Coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Blinhart wrote:cajungal wrote:
By then it will be nothing left. And won't be in a favorable area to reorganize.
We can only hope, but the models have been horrible with intensity and size so we won't know for at least another 5 days on size and strength.
Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.
Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Very good agreement between euro and gfs now. Both models make the turn south after Hatteras. The euro's 24 hr time warps are killing me though. Wish they could get that day to 6 hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Blinhart wrote:WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Blinhart wrote:
We can only hope, but the models have been horrible with intensity and size so we won't know for at least another 5 days on size and strength.
Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.
Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.
I would say the NHC did a yeoman's job on this. Proof...this...
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Tireman4 wrote:Blinhart wrote:WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.
Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.
I would say the NHC did a yeoman's job on this. Proof...this...
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater
I'm not saying the track was off, I was saying intensity
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Blinhart wrote:Tireman4 wrote:Blinhart wrote:
Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.
I would say the NHC did a yeoman's job on this. Proof...this...
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater
I'm not saying the track was off, I was saying intensity
I will say this. I am just historian, not a pro met..but I am going to go out on a limb here. First, intensity forecasts are really hard. We are still trying to get them right. I think the pro mets can chime in here. Second, we are never really going to completely figure out weather. Everytime we get close, Mother Nature throws a monkey wrench into it. Third, this storm has baffled everyone. The models, the pros, the amateurs, everyone. This is ( and most are not) not a textbook storm. Take it all in for what is worth. We will learn from Matthew. Just my four and half cents.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55
Many Thanks.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
This is probably asking a lot, but did anybody take the time to save any of the model runs from Matthew's birth up to now? I'm really curious to see that compiled into a video or gif. From what I can recall, most of the models always seemed to show the storm off of Florida's coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55
The end of that run with the remnants of Matthew traversing SE back towards Dominica seems extremely bizarre.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
NHC nailed the track by using their expertise including model output..the models themselves had a good idea and the nhc as usual takes the models along with their other tools and gives us a track and their track was good and better than average on error. They get better over time and the cone will continue to get smaller each year.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Xenon wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55
The end of that run with the remnants of Matthew traversing SE back towards Dominica seems extremely bizarre.
The fact that it's still around 10 days in any shape or form in October is mind boggling.
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