ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[FixySLN]

NHC official track has shifted north. TS watches or warnings now issued for the entire North Carolina coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

The NC coast is under a TS warning from Dare County to the SC border. Not a watch. Also, Currituck County, the northeasternmost county in NC, is not yet included in the TS warning.

You're right, that's a warning for most of NC coast. Weird that they didn't extend a watch from Currituck up to Hampton Roads. perhaps they will later today. Actually, the southern NC coast is under a Hurricane Warning.

They're already prepping sandbags for housing in Norfolk Naval base. I'm sure we'll get a Hampton Roads watch. Don't think Matthew is done screwing with us yet. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record...but that northern trend is still ongoing and really the only consistent thing we've seen in the last 48 hours. It's warmer than expected up here, the ridge is strong, and the front coming from the Midwest isn't helping anything.

*Edit* Wrong thread. Multiple tabs making a doofus out of me, sorry.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

The NC coast is under a TS warning from Dare County to the SC border. Not a watch. Also, Currituck County, the northeasternmost county in NC, is not yet included in the TS warning.

You're right, that's a warning for most of NC coast. Weird that they didn't extend a watch from Currituck up to Hampton Roads. perhaps they will later today. Actually, the southern NC coast is under a Hurricane Warning.

They're already prepping sandbags for housing in Norfolk Naval base. I'm sure we'll get a Hampton Roads watch. Don't think Matthew is done screwing with us yet. I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record...but that northern trend is still ongoing and really the only consistent thing we've seen in the last 48 hours. It's warmer than expected up here, the ridge is strong, and the front coming from the Midwest isn't helping anything.

*Edit* Wrong thread. Multiple tabs making a doofus out of me, sorry.

Hurricane warnings up in NC from SC/NC border to Surf City.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

12z GFS late, or is it just me having problems loading it up?

[Raebie]

It's running for me. Hour

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, looks like landfall.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has this circling back to the Yucatan into the BOC

[Lifeless]

Bit of a weird run there, I guess the GFS couldn't quite decide on either a North-easterly path or the loop, so it just splits it into two.

[TheStormExpert]

All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages!

If it weren't for the GIV Missions sampling the environment around Matthew we would of been screwed in Florida despite Matthew riding the extreme right side of the forecast cone last minute.

[Raebie]

12Z GFS, looks like landfall.

Strength estimate there Mark?

[dukeblue219]

All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages!

The globals had a major hurricane off the east coast of Florida right now, forecast 7 days ago. There was some waffling in the interim on the exact point of landfall, and the whole loop thing is another story, but what exactly do you expect? Has there ever been a major hurricane where the models predicted the exact path?

[cajungal]

The GFS has this circling back to the Yucatan into the BOC

By then it will be nothing left. And won't be in a favorable area to reorganize.

[Blinhart]

The GFS has this circling back to the Yucatan into the BOC

By then it will be nothing left. And won't be in a favorable area to reorganize.

We can only hope, but the models have been horrible with intensity and size so we won't know for at least another 5 days on size and strength.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS, CMC and HWRF all pretty much have a direct hit on Charleston, SC.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, looks like landfall.

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/eIzGf4T.png[/img]

Strength estimate there Mark?

Hard to say. Weaker, probably 975ish, cat 2 perhaps?

[Tommedic]

Cape Fear region actually has Hurricane Warning

[HurricaneBelle]

All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages!

The globals had a major hurricane off the east coast of Florida right now, forecast 7 days ago. There was some waffling in the interim on the exact point of landfall, and the whole loop thing is another story, but what exactly do you expect? Has there ever been a major hurricane where the models predicted the exact path?

Sheesh. Posts like this (not yours, dukeblue) make me wish we had a "dislike" button. From two and a half weeks ago when this rolled off the coast of Africa, the models had it in the vicinity of Florida (on the Gulf side yes, but not bad for that far out) and suggested that it would be the storm of the season.

[SouthernBreeze]

Euro running?

[seahawkjd]

Euro is starting.

[Soonercane]

All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages!

The globals had a major hurricane off the east coast of Florida right now, forecast 7 days ago. There was some waffling in the interim on the exact point of landfall, and the whole loop thing is another story, but what exactly do you expect? Has there ever been a major hurricane where the models predicted the exact path?

Sheesh. Posts like this (not yours, dukeblue) make me wish we had a "dislike" button. From two and a half weeks ago when this rolled off the coast of Africa, the models had it in the vicinity of Florida (on the Gulf side yes, but not bad for that far out) and suggested that it would be the storm of the season.

Well said, with the exceptions of intensity (which is nearly impossible for global models to forecast well, particularly when you are dealing with dynamics like EWRC), the GFS and Euro have for the last 4 days showed a track basically paralleling/grazing the East coast of florida (sometimes making an official landfall and sometimes remaining a bit offshore) I would say that is pretty good.