ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Alyono]

I KNOW this map is wrong but I'm curious as to why the GFS does this with tropical systems showing them not penetrating inland very much at all. By the time the storm is near Atlanta (12 hrs later), there are only 35kt winds associated with it.

I think it's issues with the boundary layer. It's causing some issues with new products I am developing

[sma10]

I was looking at the ridging and how the teleconnetics are in play from reading what Steve wrote and it does't seem a trough or low pressure will pull this north to South Florida, but around it to the panhandle.Thats my feeling.We are very lucky and I feel the streak will continue unless the ridge breaks down which I don't see happening.

This type of information is impossible to know 11 days in advance. The only thing we can be reasonably sure of is that the final solution is rarely, if ever, the same one that is modeled many days prior. Not sure that a modeled major hurricane tracking only 5 degrees West of your location 11 days in advance passes the "breathe a sigh of relief" test.

[Ivanhater]

I remember Ivan's track kept creeping west from the Peninsula..Fall seems to be a few weeks behind with a persistent ridge...Either way..someone is likely to get hit hard...long nights ahead...this might be the big one of the season

[bamajammer4eva]

I was looking at the ridging and how the teleconnetics are in play from reading what Steve wrote and it does't seem a trough or low pressure will pull this north to South Florida, but around it to the panhandle.Thats my feeling.We are very lucky and I feel the streak will continue unless the ridge breaks down which I don't see happening.

I dunno if teleconnections is what he uses but Larry Cosgrove likes analog storms, Hazel 54, Agnes 72, Opal 95

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica 9/24 Long Range

[Ivanhater]

Curious to see the 500mb chart from Euro soon

[USTropics]

Last 4 track cycles of the GFS:

[CourierPR]

I was looking at the ridging and how the teleconnetics are in play from reading what Steve wrote and it does't seem a trough or low pressure will pull this north to South Florida, but around it to the panhandle.Thats my feeling.We are very lucky and I feel the streak will continue unless the ridge breaks down which I don't see happening.

This type of information is impossible to know 11 days in advance. The only thing we can be reasonably sure of is that the final solution is rarely, if ever, the same one that is modeled many days prior. Not sure that a modeled major hurricane tracking only 5 degrees West of your location 11 days in advance passes the "breathe a sigh of relief" test.

Indeed. We don't even have a named storm yet, and some are already giving the all clear signal. Wow!

[USTropics]

I was looking at the ridging and how the teleconnetics are in play from reading what Steve wrote and it does't seem a trough or low pressure will pull this north to South Florida, but around it to the panhandle.Thats my feeling.We are very lucky and I feel the streak will continue unless the ridge breaks down which I don't see happening.

This type of information is impossible to know 11 days in advance. The only thing we can be reasonably sure of is that the final solution is rarely, if ever, the same one that is modeled many days prior. Not sure that a modeled major hurricane tracking only 5 degrees West of your location 11 days in advance passes the "breathe a sigh of relief" test.

Indeed. We don't even have a named storm yet, and some are already giving the all clear signal. Wow!

I wouldn't trust any track from any operational run past 120 hours, I just look for consistency from run to run and model to model. I mean, look at the ensembles. EVERYONE should watch this from the GOM to the EC:

[LarryWx]

I KNOW this map is wrong but I'm curious as to why the GFS does this with tropical systems showing them not penetrating inland very much at all. By the time the storm is near Atlanta (12 hrs later), there are only 35kt winds associated with it.

Being that Atlanta is nearly 250 miles inland and at 1,000 foot elevation, winds are going to slow up drastically despite the pretty fast movement. Eloise in 1975 went from a 955 mb 110 knot cat 3 to a 982 mb 55 knot TS in just 6 hours, when it had gotten nearly 200 miles inland (moving 30 mph!). Opal in 1995 went from a 942 mb 100 knot cat 3 to a 974 mb 50 knot TS in just 8 hours, when it had gotten some 175 miles inland. The 0Z GFS takes 12 hours to go from the gulf coast to Atlanta as you said.

Based on what Alyono mentioned, 35 knots could be somewhat low. Regardless, even 35 knot sustained would be nearly 40 mph sustained with gusts probably into the 50's, a really big deal for a well inland spot like Atlanta and would be nothing about which to sneeze! Opal's highest max 2 minute wind speed was 33 mph and highest gust was near 49 mph at the ATL airport. I was in Atlanta and it was an intense blow, believe me! Numerous trees were taken down.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro through 48 hrs seems to be slower:

[Ivanhater]

Slower might mean further east if a trough is digging later

[pcolaman]

Wow really don't like the model runs for this one.

[Kingarabian]

Strong ridge on the 00z Euro @ 72hrs. Still seems slower than the 12z run:

[Ivanhater]

Keep us updated King

[pcolaman]

I KNOW this map is wrong but I'm curious as to why the GFS does this with tropical systems showing them not penetrating inland very much at all. By the time the storm is near Atlanta (12 hrs later), there are only 35kt winds associated with it.

I think it's issues with the boundary layer. It's causing some issues with new products I am developing

Really hope this doesn't happen. Bad feelings of Sir Ivan!!

[USTropics]

Through 72 hours, looking pretty similar to the GFS run so far:

00z ECMWF at 72 hours:


00z GFS at 72 hours:

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro @ hr 96 down to 1008mb:

[HurricaneEric]

Through 96hrs 00z Euro (1008mb) a bit stronger than 12z (1011mb)

[Ivanhater]

Looking a bit weaker...wonder if this could a forming storm approaching the Islands or does it wait for the Caribbean

[USTropics]

Mirroring the same intensity as the GFS at 96 hours (was also at 1008mb at 96 hours). Ever so slightly south of the GFS position.