ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7541 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:52 pm

I'm quite happy with models performance, yes there were flip flops for whatever reasons, but basic path was nailed days ago
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7542 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:57 pm

12Z Euro

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7543 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:58 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages! :x

If it weren't for the GIV Missions sampling the environment around Matthew we would of been screwed in Florida despite Matthew riding the extreme right side of the forecast cone last minute.


Models had Matthew riding up the Florida coast for over a week. How would you have been screwed?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7544 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:00 pm

Blinhart wrote:
cajungal wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:The GFS has this circling back to the Yucatan into the BOC


By then it will be nothing left. And won't be in a favorable area to reorganize.



We can only hope, but the models have been horrible with intensity and size so we won't know for at least another 5 days on size and strength.


Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7545 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:02 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:All I have to say is models did downright horrible with Matthew, worst in ages! :x

If it weren't for the GIV Missions sampling the environment around Matthew we would of been screwed in Florida despite Matthew riding the extreme right side of the forecast cone last minute.


Models had Matthew riding up the Florida coast for over a week. How would you have been screwed?


Yeah. It's not the like models, and therefore the NHC, nailed Matthew's path since before he struck Haiti or anything...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7546 Postby NFLnut » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:14 pm

I'm not happy that the models had it coming farther into shore than occurred, but I'd rather have them err on the side of caution and dodge a bullet. I'm happy that my top winds went from the forecast of around 90 or so to about 56 actual because of the last minute east movement. They were never more than 50 or so miles off for the past 3-5 days even if they were making me too nervous. Considering how slow the storm was moving and the crazy changing atmospheric conditions to the north and east of it, I think they did a pretty good job.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7547 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:18 pm

Euro and GFS now agree on full loop albeit weak reflection in 5 days.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7548 Postby sancholopez » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:30 pm

The models nailed it in my opinion... Being off a bit as it went east of forecast is still amazing because they were not off by a lot at all. Thankfully, it was enough east to spare most of our coast especially in PB and Treasure Coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7549 Postby Blinhart » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:38 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
cajungal wrote:
By then it will be nothing left. And won't be in a favorable area to reorganize.



We can only hope, but the models have been horrible with intensity and size so we won't know for at least another 5 days on size and strength.


Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.


Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7550 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:40 pm

Very good agreement between euro and gfs now. Both models make the turn south after Hatteras. The euro's 24 hr time warps are killing me though. Wish they could get that day to 6 hrs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7551 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:44 pm

Blinhart wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Blinhart wrote:

We can only hope, but the models have been horrible with intensity and size so we won't know for at least another 5 days on size and strength.


Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.


Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.


I would say the NHC did a yeoman's job on this. Proof...this...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7552 Postby Blinhart » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:46 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Again, how have they been terrible on intensity and size? Models have had a major hurricane riding up the Florida coast for over a week now.


Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.


I would say the NHC did a yeoman's job on this. Proof...this...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater


I'm not saying the track was off, I was saying intensity
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7553 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:52 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.


I would say the NHC did a yeoman's job on this. Proof...this...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater


I'm not saying the track was off, I was saying intensity


I will say this. I am just historian, not a pro met..but I am going to go out on a limb here. First, intensity forecasts are really hard. We are still trying to get them right. I think the pro mets can chime in here. Second, we are never really going to completely figure out weather. Everytime we get close, Mother Nature throws a monkey wrench into it. Third, this storm has baffled everyone. The models, the pros, the amateurs, everyone. This is ( and most are not) not a textbook storm. Take it all in for what is worth. We will learn from Matthew. Just my four and half cents.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7554 Postby FixySLN » Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:59 pm

Anyone have shots of the EURO run?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7555 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:02 pm

FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7556 Postby FixySLN » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:06 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55


Many Thanks.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7557 Postby WeatherHoon » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:08 pm

This is probably asking a lot, but did anybody take the time to save any of the model runs from Matthew's birth up to now? I'm really curious to see that compiled into a video or gif. From what I can recall, most of the models always seemed to show the storm off of Florida's coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7558 Postby Xenon » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:13 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55


The end of that run with the remnants of Matthew traversing SE back towards Dominica seems extremely bizarre.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7559 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:35 pm

NHC nailed the track by using their expertise including model output..the models themselves had a good idea and the nhc as usual takes the models along with their other tools and gives us a track and their track was good and better than average on error. They get better over time and the cone will continue to get smaller each year.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7560 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:37 pm

Xenon wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
FixySLN wrote:Anyone have shots of the EURO run?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55




The end of that run with the remnants of Matthew traversing SE back towards Dominica seems extremely bizarre.


The fact that it's still around 10 days in any shape or form in October is mind boggling. :lol:
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