ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7561 Postby Portastorm » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:38 pm

jlauderdal wrote:NHC nailed the track by using their expertise including model output..the models themselves had a good idea and the nhc as usual takes the models along with their other tools and gives us a track and their track was good and better than average on error. They get better over time and the cone will continue to get smaller each year.


Yes they have. NHC has done an outstanding job to date on this storm. And they didn't succumb to deviating much on intensity forecasts as well.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7562 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:40 pm

jlauderdal wrote:NHC nailed the track by using their expertise including model output..the models themselves had a good idea and the nhc as usual takes the models along with their other tools and gives us a track and their track was good and better than average on error. They get better over time and the cone will continue to get smaller each year.


Agreed for 7-8 days the GFS had this within 50 miles of where final track up FL coast occured. EURO close same. That's pretty damn accurate.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7563 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:42 pm

Blinhart wrote:Never did the models have it reach Cat. 5 like it did and it showed a large storm that might of reached Cat 3 but not Cat 4, so intensity was always off.


While intensity forecasts ARE extremely difficult, there were plenty of model runs that showed this as a Cat 5 in the Caribbean. The initial models like 10 days ago had a 899mb storm in the Caribbean. That would have been truly historic if it verified. Fortunately, it didn't, but there was always plenty of model support that this could be a Cat 5 in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7564 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:45 pm

Portastorm wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:NHC nailed the track by using their expertise including model output..the models themselves had a good idea and the nhc as usual takes the models along with their other tools and gives us a track and their track was good and better than average on error. They get better over time and the cone will continue to get smaller each year.


Yes they have. NHC has done an outstanding job to date on this storm. And they didn't succumb to deviating much on intensity forecasts as well.


you still want to be on the line at days 4, 5 as the error is large enough so you get a miss. This strom was perfect example of just a few miles making all the difference in terms of wind damage...north florida really getting it with strom surge
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7565 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 2:58 pm

will say HRRR's westward bias with tropical cyclones was really evident yesterday. That's something that should be looked at, although it's a very new product that I'm otherwise impressed with. But even it was within the error cone, just to the left.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7566 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:04 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:will say HRRR's westward bias with tropical cyclones was really evident yesterday. That's something that should be looked at, although it's a very new product that I'm otherwise impressed with. But even it was within the error cone, just to the left.


I wouldn't characterize it as a westward bias with tropical cyclones. For starters, a single data point doesn't mean much. Second, the HRRR is not a tropical cyclone model. It's not intended to be used to forecast the track of a large hurricane, something that was reiterated time and again yesterday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7567 Postby KWT » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:16 pm

Amazigly Matthew may still be around in 8-10 days time, likely a sheared mess and a mere shadow (but then again, so was Nicole until it blew up).

For a CRAZY track, look at the 12z CMC. Dives SW into Caribbean, landfall Yucatan, back ENE towards Cuba and strengthening again!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7568 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:20 pm

Repost from Nicole Thread:

If Matthew kept some intensity 90-102 hours wouldn't the Fujiwhara effect throw it back into South of Middle florida and nicole into South Georgia?? Or do we poorly understand the Phenomenon and cant really model its effects?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7569 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:44 pm

I realize Models have more difficulty with predicting strength, however I'm in a mobile home - OK w/Cat 1, but Cat 2 even 50 mi away gets iffy. What model would you say is best for judging strength this far out from SC/NC line?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7570 Postby MWatkins » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:50 pm

WeatherHoon wrote:This is probably asking a lot, but did anybody take the time to save any of the model runs from Matthew's birth up to now? I'm really curious to see that compiled into a video or gif. From what I can recall, most of the models always seemed to show the storm off of Florida's coast.


I have everything but the Euro from the first Invest until current. I will put together an animation and post as soon as I can.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7571 Postby CourierPR » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:54 pm

KWT wrote:Amazigly Matthew may still be around in 8-10 days time, likely a sheared mess and a mere shadow (but then again, so was Nicole until it blew up).

For a CRAZY track, look at the 12z CMC. Dives SW into Caribbean, landfall Yucatan, back ENE towards Cuba and strengthening again!


Maybe he still wants a crack at S. Florida.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7572 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 3:59 pm

CourierPR wrote:
KWT wrote:Amazigly Matthew may still be around in 8-10 days time, likely a sheared mess and a mere shadow (but then again, so was Nicole until it blew up).

For a CRAZY track, look at the 12z CMC. Dives SW into Caribbean, landfall Yucatan, back ENE towards Cuba and strengthening again!


Maybe he still wants a crack at S. Florida.


energy in the carribean and gulf in October likes to come towards florida..let see
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7573 Postby WeatherHoon » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:02 pm

MWatkins wrote:
WeatherHoon wrote:This is probably asking a lot, but did anybody take the time to save any of the model runs from Matthew's birth up to now? I'm really curious to see that compiled into a video or gif. From what I can recall, most of the models always seemed to show the storm off of Florida's coast.


I have everything but the Euro from the first Invest until current. I will put together an animation and post as soon as I can.

MW


You're awesome! Thank you!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7574 Postby sma10 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:35 pm

It's obviously the 8-10 days fantasyland period, but am I crazy to think that Matthew could actually be a serious threat again down the line?

The globals are all over the place, and Matthew will certainly be in a much weakened state, but if in a week or so he is meandering around the Bahamas or Western Caribbean.....
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7575 Postby StarmanHDB » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:42 pm

sma10 wrote:It's obviously the 8-10 days fantasyland period, but am I crazy to think that Matthew could actually be a serious threat again down the line?

The globals are all over the place, and Matthew will certainly be in a much weakened state, but if in a week or so he is meandering around the Bahamas or Western Caribbean.....


As Hermine recently reminded us, never call Bones until all of a system's energy has completely dissipated. That said, I am staying prepared for Matthew's highly possible South Florida revisit. BLECCCCCCCH!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7576 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:52 pm

So, while everyone has been arguing about accuracy, the 18z gfs has been running. Slightly north with slightly more northeast motion and a significantly later turn south. Seems as though the track is flattening out, makes me wonder if the curve will really verify.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7577 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:53 pm

Also looks like it makes brief landfall around Charleston.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7578 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:54 pm

[img]blob:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/fc147cd6-ba59-4857-bf49-a3d2ffc17cf3[/img]

Edit: How do you post a gif?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7579 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Oct 07, 2016 4:59 pm

looks like the 18zGFS merges Matthew with Nicole
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7580 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:10 pm

https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis/pos ... 3757288196

****SIGNIFICANT NORTH AND WEST SHIFT IN MATTHEW'S TRACK EXPECTED. EURO/CMC/GFS/NAM ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS, NOW SHOWING THIS SHIFT****

Matthew is a strong Category 2 hurricane aiming for GA and SC tonight. Saturday into early Sunday morning, Matthew will be tracking along the SC and NC coast, now tracking farther west along the coast and farther north, into the Outer Banks. What this shift does is increases the threat inland for rain/wind. Matthew's outter bands will now be placed over VA and NC, interacting with an approaching cold front. The combination of the cold front and Matthew's bands will increase the rain threat, now a widespread 3-6in+ threat for Central VA and NC, with isolated pockets of higher totals. Coastal areas and tidewater regions of VA and NC will receive 12in+. Widespread wind threat inland, gust in the 35-40mph range but along and east of I-95 40-60mph winds, along the coast 60-70mph+ winds. Wind and rain threat will start late friday night, peak Saturday and last into Sunday morning. NWS offices now issuing advisories/watches/warnings for this threat across the region. Please monitor forecast from your local NWS office and heed the warnings. I will have updates later so please check back in

Image
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