ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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FixySLN
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7581 Postby FixySLN » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:25 pm

Where are the runs showing the shift?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7582 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:30 pm

models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N

This difference may spare SC from a landfall
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7583 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:34 pm

Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N

This difference may spare SC from a landfall

Where did gfs and euro put him?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7584 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:36 pm

18z gfs 72 hour rainfall totals

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7585 Postby FixySLN » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:39 pm

Vdogg wrote:18z gfs 72 hour rainfall totals

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuMm1jCUMAA ... name=large


12 inches of rain then. Time to find my car keys. Thanks for the image.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed img tags
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7586 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:42 pm

18z GFS close to Savannah and SC coast.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7587 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:59 pm

Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N

This difference may spare SC from a landfall


Right now HWRF brings the center over Charleston a little after low tide. Any delay from that puts more water into Charleston Harbor.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7588 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:59 pm

Vdogg wrote:
Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N

This difference may spare SC from a landfall

Where did gfs and euro put him?


EC has the right lat, but the lon is a bit too far west

MU is reasonable
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7589 Postby Pughetime12 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:11 pm

Alyono wrote:models have been way too fast with the short term motion. Take HWRF for example. It has Matthew at 0Z north of 31N. Instead, it may be around 30.6N

This difference may spare SC from a landfall


I pray you are right!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7590 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:52 pm

18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again :double: this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7591 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:58 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7592 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:00 pm



lets not use this model again
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7593 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:05 pm

OK - reason? You don't feel its accurate enough?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7594 Postby WeatherHoon » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again :double: this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM

https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png


CMC shows the same thing happening.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed img tags
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7595 Postby SouthernBreeze » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:16 pm

most models seem pretty much in agreement for track up off SC right now. I wish I could find a good strength predictor!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7596 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again :double: this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM

https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png

Ha, the navgem wasn't terrible...it latched on to the west idea way before euro and gfs did last weekend
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Oct 07, 2016 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed img tags
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7597 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:21 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again :double: this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM

https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png

Ha, the navgem wasn't terrible...it latched on to the west idea way before euro and gfs did last weekend


It also showed Miami...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7598 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:22 pm

I think the takeaway from Matthew and the models is that in general the Euro and GFS did a good job showing us up to day 4 approximately what would happen. Not exactly but very useable. Day 5 and beyond not so much.

I think it's natural for weather geeks like me to really WANT to know what's gonna happen so we look at the long ranges. We hope that somehow the long range runs beyond say 4 days are going to tell us something meaningful. In fact they don't. Just look at the evolution of the steering pattern for Matthew and the sizes of the ridges and cutoff lows. Some features were modeled but never appeared. At least nothing close to the shape and size indicated at day 6.

For the next storm, I'm going to try and really ignore the longer ranges. It causes only disappointment, stress, unfounded excitement, unfounded concern. You've gotta wait until day 3 to really know where a storm is going when you have a recurve potential and or coast hugging situation.

I just wish that the TV promets and even some of the better internet mets would take a step back and stop acting at day 6 like they really know the answer. It isn't helpful. And the TV mets with their desperate need to be first on the story are incessantly declaring all clears when they should be more patient. A lot of pride there. One day it will go before a fall.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7599 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:23 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM shows Matthew passing close to SE Florida towards the NW Caribbean where it makes a run at a hurricane again :double: this looks doubtful given it is the NAVGEM

https://s11.postimg.org/lw2l3qzn7/navge ... atl_24.png

Ha, the navgem wasn't terrible...it latched on to the west idea way before euro and gfs did last weekend


It also showed Miami...

Yes it did which was much closer to reality than euro and gfs which were way east..navgem was west a week ago
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#7600 Postby dukeblue219 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:42 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:OK - reason? You don't feel its accurate enough?


The HRRR is not a tropical model. It models regional thunderstorms that are a few hours out. It's not completely wrong -- Matthew is a big thunderstorm -- but it won't capture anything beyond the next few hours very well.

For this system, the HRRR is good if you want to ask "hey, I wonder when that next feeder band is supposed to come by, and how strong it will be." You can't get that information from something like the Euro or GFS with sufficient detail. If you want to know whether the system will make landfall or curve out to sea, it's not the best place to look.
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